For the IT and telecoms market, the only certain thing about the tariffs imposed and threatened by the US is that they have caused uncertainty, and as the dust settles on the issue, analysts are now predicting that while fibre and optical technologies will likely escape direct impact, cable outside plant and Wi-Fi routers will see an adverse impact. Most importantly, overall spend on comms technology by providers could well be pushed back to 2026.
Assessing how changing tariff policies could affect broadband deployments and the demand for related equipment, analyst Dell’Oro Group noted that recent shifts in US trade policy – not just the implementation and adjustment of tariffs – have introduced uncertainty into global markets.
Furthermore, it adds that given the frequent adjustments to trade policy, including the recent exemptions for smartphones, consumer electronics, and certain graphics processing units, it remains challenging to forecast the full extent of the impact on broadband infrastructure in the near term.
That said, looking at individual technologies, Dell’Oro believes tariffs will have minimal impact on most fibre broadband equipment pricing and deployments. The key reason given for this is the fact that key fibre broadband equipment providers in the US have already moved most of their assembly and manufacturing to the US to adhere to the Build America, Buy America waiver of the Broadband Equity, Access and Deployment programme.
This has meant the most commonly deployed components – passive optical network optical line terminals, optical network terminals, cabinets and fibre-optic cable – have already been self-certified by the respective suppliers and seen substantial increases in domestic manufacturing.
By contrast, Dell’Oro says cable outside plant upgrades in support of Docsis 4.0 technology are likely to be impacted. It suggests that manufacturers of this equipment are either looking to relocate their facilities or manufacturing to the US, or are seeking waivers to satisfy growing demand from leading comms operators. The end result is that tariffs will be materially significant at any level, and cable operators pursuing Docsis 4.0 will face additional deployment delays, as well as increased equipment prices.
Similarly, the study observed that just as wireless technology suppliers are looking to ride a wave of Wi-Fi 7 penetration into businesses, tariffs at any level will easily increase the retail cost of even the most popular Wi-Fi brands by anywhere from 5 to 15%. China, Taiwan and Vietnam are the manufacturing sources for the vast majority of these devices and, although these devices have been exempted in the latest rolling back of tariffs, Dell’Oro predicts that the likelihood of those full exemptions remaining is slim.
Assessing the big picture going forward, Dell’Oro report author and company vice-president Jeff Heynan said: “The challenge for all industries now is that they simply cannot unsee what has already happened. The state of economic recovery in many countries and industries was already fragile after dealing with the supply shock of the Covid-19 pandemic … Just as these businesses are set to rebound and return to more normalised and consistent purchasing levels, tariffs are introduced, making the road to recovery cloudier.
“The bigger concern we had going into 2025 was the uncertainty among consumers and businesses alike about what impact the new administration’s policies would have on overall spending and investment patterns,” he said. “After two years of steady inflation and higher interest rates, US consumer confidence was already trending downward. Consumer debt levels were rising and stubbornly high mortgage rates limited the number of new homes being purchased, as well as overall refinancing. With consumer spending in the US typically 68% of GDP, any further decline in confidence could result in consumers pulling back from spending.”
For its part, Cedia, an international trade association dedicated to the residential and commercial custom electronics industry, said the tariffs decision on comms tech will affect imports of various goods crucial to the smart home technology sector, and that professionals in the sector could face significant operational challenges as they attempt to absorb increased material costs or pass these expenses on to consumers.
The association highlighted the potential to strain smart home professionals who specialise in custom installations and integrations of advanced technologies, such as home automation systems, audiovisual equipment, security features and energy management offerings.
Assessing the issues from the viewpoint of operators and the ramifications for the industry, Juniper Research noted that it expects operators to pass the almost-certain higher costs of network upgrades and maintenance onto mobile subscribers, driven by the slim profit margins tied to consumer subscriptions. It emphasised that operators are continuing to upgrade existing 5G networks as they focus on rolling out services aimed at attracting enterprise clients.
Looking at how the tariffs could impact 6G development, Juniper Research said it was necessary to consider the timelines for 6G and the timing of the next presidential election. Based on previous telecom network cycles and announcements from industry bodies, it expects network testing to begin around 2028, with a commercial launch in 2029; right at the end of the next election cycle.
