With the MLB trade deadline passing at 6 p.m. ET on Monday, coupled with the calendar flipping to August, World Series odds are attracting more attention.
Including from one Caesars Sports customer who last week thought the Dodgers had the best chance to land Tigers ace Tarik Skubal.
“We just took a $10,000 bet [Friday] morning on the Dodgers +175 to win the World Series,” Caesars head of baseball trading Eric Biggio said.
By Saturday night, that bettor was proven correct.
Biggio and Caesars senior baseball trader Matt Torchia help break down 2026 World Series odds and action, as the regular season hits its final two months.
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SKUBAL SWEEPSTAKES
As the trade deadline approached, Detroit was seven games under .500. That put the Tigers fourth in the AL Central, and they trailed seven teams in the AL Wild Card chase.
Which meant the Tigers would likely be sellers, with Skubal the best piece to offer up by far.
The left-handed ace could’ve walked as a free agent after this season, so Detroit almost assuredly wanted something in return. By Friday afternoon, the Dodgers were the frontrunner to nab Skubal.
Late Saturday night, that came to fruition, And the Dodgers further strengthened as a favorite, moving from +175 to 150 in World Series futures odds.
But Caesars and likely many other sportsbooks aren’t that enthused about the prospect of a third straight Dodgers championship.
“We’re OK to the Dodgers on straight bets,” Biggio said. “But what’s been popular with bettors is including the Dodgers in futures parlays. That connected for a few of our players last year.
“I think there’s gonna be some futures parlay liability with the Dodgers.”
The addition of Skubal only adds to oddsmakers’ sweat on the Dodgers.
BANKING ON BOSTON
A huge surprise over the past month-plus is the resurgence of the Red Sox.
On July 1, Boston was 37-48 and an afterthought for the playoffs. Then came a 15-game win streak, which comprised the bulk of a 20-2 run that actually began in late June.
That helped take the Sox from 100/1 long shot to +1800 10th choice in Caesars World Series oddS. Then on Monday, as the trade deadline closed in, Boston made a deal with Baltimore to acquire catcher Adley Rutschman, filling a key need.
So a team left for dead a month ago is now the +1400 co-fifth choice to win the World Series. If the season ended today, Boston (60-51) would be the second of three AL wild-card teams.
“A good amount of bets came in on the Red Sox at some decent numbers for the bettors,” Biggio said. “Not many got in at the peak of 100/1, but there are some tickets at 50/1 and 40/1.
“We’re still OK to the Red Sox, though. They’re a good story, and their playoff matchups would draw a lot of action. Red Sox-Yankees and Red Sox-White Sox would do a lot of business.”
And a Red Sox-Dodgers World Series — a repeat of the 2018 Fall Classic, won by Boston — would do massive numbers at sportsbooks.
SOUTHSIDE RIDE
Arguably the biggest surprise of the 2026 MLB season is the White Sox sitting atop the AL Central, at 59-52. In fact, through games of Aug. 3, only the Rays (64-44), Yankees (61-48) and Red Sox (60-51) have better records in the AL.
So a team that opened at a massive +30000 (300/1) at Caesars is now all the way into +2500. And plenty of bettors got on the White Sox at longer-shot odds.
“Our position on the White Sox is a pretty big red figure, and I imagine it’s similar at other sportsbooks,” Biggio said. “All those $10 and $20 bets add up.”
The Chicago White Sox currently have a 57-51 record (Geoff Stellfox/Getty Images).
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Indeed, a $20 flier at 300/1 would profit $6,000 if the White Sox lift the trophy. If you got frisky and put down a hundred bucks — which surely some people did — that bet would profit $30,000.
The North Siders were busy at the trade deadline, too. The Cubs snagged starter Kevin Gausman in a Sunday deal with the Blue Jays, and also acquired starter Clay Holmes and reliever Ryan Zeferjahn in trades with the Mets and Angels, respectively.
In response, Caesars nudged the Cubs from +2000 to +1800, the co-seventh choice along with the Phillies. However, even though the Cubs have taken the fourth-most World Series bets, they aren’t among Caesars’ top five liabilities.
Torchia pointed to a couple other teams that would blow up Caesars’ bottom line in World Series odds, notably the Pirates and the Cardinals. However, both have work to do, on the outside looking in for an NL Wild Card.
Pittsburgh is a dead-even 57-57, 3.5 games out of the third and final wild-card slot. St. Louis is 56-57, four games out in the wild card. Pittsburgh opened at +15000 (150/1) to win the World Series and remains a long shot now at +10000, but is certainly not out of it.
“The Pirates have been a fun story. Every year, they seem to do this, and they normally flame out,” Torchia said. “But this year, they’ve stuck around .500 and maybe could eke out a Wild Card spot.
“We’d take a big hit on the Pirates winning the World Series.”
As for St. Louis: “It’s not as much of a hit on the Cardinals, but it wouldn’t be great for us,” Torchia said. “We had their win total at 74.5. We had no faith in them. They’ve outperformed their expectations.
“And our customers were betting into the Cardinals, because of the name brand and the big price.”
All that said, as noted above, the Pirates are still well down the odds board at 100/1, and the Cardinals are double that at +20000 (200/1).
TEXAS TWOSOME
The top three teams in tickets and money in Caesars’ World Series odds are the Dodgers — by far — then the Yankees and Mariners. New York is the +600 second choice to win it all, trailing only Los Angeles.
The Yanks also made a notable deadline move, acquiring slugger Luis Garcia Jr. from the Nationals.
Seattle, however, is trending in the wrong direction. On Friday morning, even with a 53-57 record, the Mariners were Caesars’ +1600 co-seventh choice. On Tuesday, Seattle is 55-58 — two games shy of the last AL wild-card slot — and has slid out to +2500.
Torchia said Caesars is rooting for two of the Mariners’ division rivals at this point.
“We’d like to see the Astros or the Rangers win the World Series,” he said.
Like Seattle, both Houston and Texas are hovering around .500, with the Astros atop the AL West at 58-56 and the Rangers tied with the M’s at 55-58. But like the Mariners, the Rangers are backsliding.
On Friday morning, Texas was +1600 and leading the AL West at 55-54. Then the Rangers lost four in a row, including a sweep by the Astros in a three-game weekend series, vaulting Houston into first in the West.
That prompted Caesars to make yet another sizable move on the Astros, from +3500 to +2000 in World Series futures, while Texas tumbled to +3500. Just two weeks ago, with a 47-54 record, Houston could be had for +6000. But the Astros are on an 11-2 run since then.
Biggio agreed that Texas and Houston are both good for the book. But he’s really looking for the least attractive matchup possible.
“I’m rooting for a non-sexy World Series, the most boring possible: The Brewers vs. the Rays,” Biggio said. “They both play the best fundamental baseball. I think the Brewers are very underrated.”
Biggio might just get that matchup. Tampa Bay (66-46) has the AL’s best record and is the +1400 co-fifth choice in odds to win the World Series, joined by the Red Sox.
Milwaukee (69-43) has the best mark in all of baseball, just ahead of the Dodgers (69-44). Caesars has the Brew Crew at +900, the third choice to win it all, trailing only the Dodgers and Yankees.
Source
Schwartz’s Pick: Buccaneers Under 8.5 Wins (-136)
Schwartz’s Pick: Panthers to Win NFC South (+310)
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