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2026 NFL Odds Week 4: Lines, Spreads, Results For All

All that remains in Week 3 is a Monday Night Football matchup between the Eagles and Bears, before Week 4 kicks off with a Thursday tilt between the Steelers and Browns.

Here are the lines for every Week 4 matchup at bet365 Sportsbook as of Sept. 28. 

This page may contain affiliate links to legal sports betting partners. If you sign up or place a wager, FOX Sports may be compensated. Read more about Sports Betting on FOX Sports.

National Football LeagueThursday, Oct. 1

Spread: Steelers -2.5
Moneyline: Steelers -155, Browns +130
O/U: 38.5

National Football LeagueSunday, Oct. 4

Spread: Colts -3.5
Moneyline: Colts -180, Commanders +150
O/U: 47.5

Spread: Cardinals -1
Moneyline: Cardinals -115, Giants -105
O/U: 44.5

Spread: Texans -2.5
Moneyline: Texans -150, Cowboys +125
O/U: 47.5

Spread: Packers -3.5
Moneyline: Packers -190, Buccaneers +160
O/U: 39.5

Spread: Bengals -2.5
Moneyline: Bengals -150, Jaguars +125
O/U: 51.5

Spread: Rams -2.5
Moneyline: Rams -130, Eagles +110
O/U: 46.5

Spread: Bills -6.5
Moneyline: Bills -310, Patriots +250
O/U: 48.5

Spread: Bears -2.5
Moneyline: Bears -160, Jets +135
O/U: 42.5

Spread: Ravens -11.5
Moneyline: Ravens -750, Titans +525
O/U: 43.5

Spread: Vikings -10
Moneyline: Vikings -700, Dolphins +500
O/U: 38.5

Spread: 49ers -2.5
Moneyline: 49ers -155, Broncos +130
O/U: 46.5

Spread: Chiefs -5.5
Moneyline: Chiefs -225, Raiders +185
O/U: 48.5

Spread: Seahakws -6.5
Moneyline: Seahawks -310, Chargers +250
O/U: 43.5

Spread: Lions -3.5
Moneyline: Lions -190, Panthers +160
O/U: 50.5

National Football LeagueMonday, Oct. 5

Spread: Saints -2.5
Moneyline: Saints -155, Falcons +130
O/U: 48.5



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Tom Brady Calls Out Justin Herbert’s ‘Meatball Sub’ Throw In

Tom Brady didn’t hold back on Sunday, breaking out some social media slang to describe Justin Herbert’s fourth-quarter interception.

Facing third-and-5 from the Buffalo 23 with the Chargers trailing, Herbert forced a deep pass toward the middle of the field that Bills defensive back C.J. Gardner-Johnson read the whole way, intercepting it at the 1-yard line and returning it out to the 42.

Brady didn’t mince words.

“There’s a safety in the middle of the field,” Brady said. “Poor awareness, poor decision, throws him a meatball sub.”

It was the second time Brady called out the Chargers’ decision-making in the game. 

Earlier, in the third quarter, Los Angeles had marched to the Buffalo 1-yard line before a false start and a holding penalty pushed the offense backward, forcing Herbert into tougher throws than necessary. 

Brady called it out as it happened.

“Second and goal on the one. I just think you shouldn’t even be in this situation. Quarterback sneak, put it in,” Brady said. “You call a fancy play, lose yards, false start, now these are much higher level of difficulty plays you have to run.”

Justin Herbert was under pressure early and often against the Bills on Sunday. (Kathryn Riley/Getty Images)

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Herbert finished 20-of-34 for 226 yards with a touchdown and an interception as the Bills improved to 3-0. 

The Chargers dropped to 0-3, unable to find answers in the red zone or take advantage of Buffalo’s five turnovers.

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Another Brutal Buccaneers Loss: 3 Takeaways From Vikings’ Win In

The Minnesota Vikings are still undefeated, and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers remain winless.

Minnesota continued its winning ways on Sunday, with quarterback Kyler Murray returning and helping the Vikings come away with a 23-16 victory over the Buccaneers to improve to 3-0. The win wasn’t the most impressive showing for the Vikings’ offense, though, as they put up 230 total yards of offense and rode another impressive defensive performance to victory.

On the flip side, the Buccaneers might be in danger. They fell to 0-3, and quarterback Baker Mayfield might face an extended absence after suffering a thumb injury late in Sunday’s game. 

Here are my takeaways from the Vikings’ win over the Buccaneers.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

1. With Another Loss, Todd Bowles Is Running Out Of Time

 

All three losses have been close, but it doesn’t change the fact that the Bucs are now 0-3, and head coach Todd Bowles is getting close to running out of time.

To make matters worse, Baker Mayfield left the game in the final two minutes with what looked to be an injury to his throwing hand. If it was hard to win with Mayfield at quarterback, it will be much worse with an undrafted rookie starting in Jalon Daniels.

Bowles’ defense played well Sunday, but another big special-teams mistake and an uninspired offense did them in against the Vikings. They’ll try to avoid their third home loss in as many weeks when the Green Bay Packers come to town. And as bad as Green Bay has been, it’s a game the Bucs and Bowles need desperately to win.

Todd Bowles and the Buccaneers have lost 10 of their last 12 games. (Photo by Michael Hickey/Getty Images)

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Tampa Bay went into the year as the team to beat in the NFC South, and that’s still in play if the Buccaneers can start turning close losses into close wins. If they don’t do that soon, you wonder how much patience the Glazer family will have.

The Bucs lost seven of their last nine to finish last season and miss the playoffs. Add it up, and they’re 3-11 in their last 14 games. Even in a bad division, coaches don’t get to stick around with too much sustained losing like that.

After the Packers, the Buccaneers have a short week going to the Dallas Cowboys. If they can’t win either of those, they’d be 0-5, and it’s possible the Bucs use the mini-bye to make a major change. The Glazer family has never changed coaches during a season in 30-plus years of owning the Bucs, but fans were already calling for Bowles’ job down the stretch last year.

Justin JeffersonMinnesota Vikings

When the Vikings added Jauan Jennings from the 49ers, it looked like they might have one of the best 1-2-3 receiver combos in the league with Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison.

Jefferson missed most of Sunday’s game with an ankle injury, though, so it was a chance for the rest of the receivers to step up in his absence. Addison made a big impact on one drive — with a 30-yard sideline catch and a 41-yard touchdown — but otherwise, the receivers were nowhere to be found. Addison totaled 14 yards the rest of the game, and Jennings had a single 1-yard catch, his only statistical contribution in the first three games.

Jefferson might not miss any time and play next week against the Dolphins, but the rest of the receivers need to step up in a big way to keep defenses from collapsing their coverage around the only dangerous part of the passing game right now.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers3. Bucs Defense Must Find A Way To Create Takeaways

Tampa Bay’s defense was missing two top rookies Sunday in edge rusher Rueben Bain and linebacker Josiah Trotter, but the biggest takeaway from their first three games is the absence of takeaways.

The Buccaneers got a pick-six from Trotter in their season-opening loss to the Bengals, and that was their lone takeaway in the first two games — only three NFL teams had fewer entering the weekend. They got another Sunday when Vita Vea batted a pass at the line that caromed into the hands of defensive lineman A’Shawn Robinson, but the offense couldn’t take advantage of the short field and only got a field goal.

But there isn’t enough pressure on opposing quarterbacks, so risky throws are rarely made. If the Buccaneers are unable to create pressure, then their secondary has to create takeaways. 
 



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Baker Mayfield Exits vs

Baker Mayfield suffered a dislocated right thumb on his throwing hand in the fourth quarter of a 23-16 loss to the Minnesota Vikings. Head coach Todd Bowles spoke to reporters on Monday morning and revealed that Mayfield will be sidelined for three weeks.

Mayfield scrambled and avoided two defenders before he was hit by Vikings’ linebacker Blake Cashman near his right hand as he released the ball that was intercepted by linebacker Andrew Van Ginkel.

Not too long after the play involving Mayfield, he was seen walking into the locker room with training staff. He did not return to the game.

The injury comes just weeks after Mayfield signed a three-year, $165 million extension with Tampa Bay in September, making him the highest-paid player in franchise history and one of the top-earning quarterbacks in the league. The deal keeps him under contract through the 2029 season.

Tampa Bay entered Sunday 0-2 after a 23-19 loss to the Browns last week, and Mayfield had struggled to start the season, completing 44 of 62 passes with one touchdown and four turnovers through two games. He also dealt with an illness earlier in the week but practiced fully and was cleared to play.



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Dante Moore Has Concussion After Late Hit; USC Suspends Desman

Oregon announced Sunday that quarterback Dante Moore sustained a concussion in a late hit by linebacker Desman Stephens during the second quarter of the Ducks’ victory over Southern California on Saturday.

Stephens, who was ejected from the game for targeting, was suspended for one game by USC earlier Sunday for the hit and his celebration afterward.

“Dante sustained a concussion in last night’s game but fortunately his MRI and CT scans came back clean and he did not suffer any additional injuries,” Oregon coach Dan Lanning said in a statement. “Every concussion is different and we are going to move forward with an abundance of caution to ensure we make the best decisions for Dante and his future.”

Moore was sliding to complete an 11-yard run to the USC 12 in the second quarter when Stephens hit him in the head and chest with his shoulder. Moore’s helmet snapped back and hit the turf, and his hands raised in what appeared to be an involuntary motion. Eventually was placed on a stretcher with his neck in a brace and left the game in an ambulance.

Stephens celebrated after the hit and was confronted by Oregon players before he left the game. His actions were roundly criticized.

Stephens later apologized and expressed empathy for Moore and his family in a statement issued by the Trojans.

“I want to sincerely apologize for my actions during yesterday’s game,” Stephens in a statement released by the university. “Seeing a player injured like that is incredibly serious, and my reaction in the moments afterward was completely inappropriate and inexcusable. Regardless of what was going through my mind at the time, there is no justification for smiling or celebrating while another player receives medical attention. I take full responsibility for my actions. That is not the person or teammate I want to be, and I will learn from this.”

USC coach Lincoln Riley condemned Stephens’ actions while announcing the suspension for his starting linebacker, who won’t play when No. 18 USC (4-1, 1-1 Big Ten) hosts Washington (3-1, 0-1) next weekend.

“Desman’s actions in last night’s game are unacceptable and are not reflective of USC football nor of his personal character,” Riley said. “He understands his mistake, accepts the consequences of his actions and will learn from this. The entire Trojan Family wishes Dante a full recovery, and we send our best regards to him and his family.”

Lanning expressed gratitude in his statement Sunday for the medical attention that Moore received.

“We are extremely appreciative of our entire medical staff and the medical staffs at USC and LA General County Hospital for their quick and thorough action in making sure Dante received the very best care possible,” Lanning said.

The Ducks, while shaken by the loss of their quarterback, went on to win 41-27. Oregon, which jumped five spots to No. 15 in the AP Top 25 with the victory, is off next weekend before hosting UCLA on Oct. 10.

The Division I Football Bowl Subdivision Oversight Committee in March approved a one-year trial rule for this season that gives a player a break for his first targeting penalty and clears the way for him to play in the next game. Since this was Stephens’ first such penalty, he would have been eligible to play against the Huskies had USC not suspended him.

Following the game, Lanning had called the hit “disgusting.” Stephens drew even more ire for smiling on the bench and later returning to the Trojans’ sideline in the second half after being ejected.

Riley defended Stephens’ return to the sideline Saturday night, saying he was allowed back because “he’s on our football team.”

Reporting by The Associated Press.



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South Carolina’s Dylan Stewart Suspended Indefinitely After Punching Alabama TE

South Carolina edge rusher Dylan Stewart was suspended indefinitely after throwing a punch at an Alabama player on Saturday night, coach Shane Beamer announced Sunday.

Stewart was called for a personal foul after he punched tight end Josh Ford in the helmet in the fourth quarter of the Gamecocks’ 49-18 loss in Tuscaloosa, Alabama.

Beamer said he would make a decision early this week about when, and if, Stewart will return. Stewart, who is widely projected to be a first-round pick in next year’s NFL draft, was ruled out of Saturday’s home game against No. 24 Kentucky.

“There’s a standard of how we do things in this program, and that was not it last night,” Beamer said. “It’s beyond the punch. The punch is unacceptable. He’s not the first person to ever, unfortunately, throw a punch in a football game, and he won’t be the last. But it’s some of the other stuff that isn’t how we do things in this program. Accountability is a core value of this program, and we are all accountable to the standard.”

Stewart, an Associated Press preseason All-America first-team pick, missed the first two games of the season because of a back injury. He has one tackle for loss and three quarterback hurries in two games.

Reporting by The Associated Press.

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4 Takeaways From Kansas & Kyle Larson’s Huge Second Win

Kansas Speedway (Kansas City, Kan.) — Kyle Larson appeared to have lost the Cup race Sunday with 30 laps remaining when Chase Briscoe blew past him.

But 23 laps later, Larson came back to not only win the race but also take control of The Chase with six races remaining.

Larson, who went winless in 51 races before claiming two of the last three, increased his points lead from one point to 26 over Denny Hamlin, who placed third behind Larson and Austin Cindric.

“I don’t look at it like [it’s mine to lose],” Larson said in his post-race news conference. “I’m just really trying to do the best job I can, again. And, yeah, just show up to the racetrack and kind of block out all that stuff.”

Here are my takeaways:

1. Kyle Larson In Control

Kyle Larson is the firm leader in The Chase standings.

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When Briscoe had the lead, Hamlin was within 5-10 points of Larson in the standings. 

But once Larson got back in the lead, that made a significant difference, as a victory is worth 55 points and second is worth 35 points.

Larson earned the maximum 76 points — 55 for the win, 20 stage points (10 points for winning each stage) and one point for posting the fastest lap in the race. He now has a 26-point lead on Hamlin, a 50-point lead on Christopher Bell and a 67-point lead on Joey Logano. 

Those are the only three drivers within 76 points of Larson.

But not only does Larson have the points lead, he showed he might be the fastest on a 1.5-mile oval and the next two races at Las Vegas and Charlotte are at 1.5-mile ovals (albeit, they have different banking).

Larson said he felt that, because qualifying got rained out and he started on the front row, that made a big difference. He said he doesn’t want to get a false sense of security.

“If I qualify the third row, the race could look completely different,” Larson said in his post-race news conference. “I don’t know what my balance was like in traffic for a short run. I could have been plowing tight and faded even more. I don’t know.

“So I still have some skepticism of where I really rank to the guys who are really good on intermediates.”

2. Denny Hamlin Needs Speed

Denny Hamlin knows he and his team are going to have to find more speed if they want to take the lead in points.

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Denny Hamlin needs speed and admits that Larson is in control. He indicated the last three finishes of ninth, eighth and third were about what he had.

The Joe Gibbs Racing driver said it isn’t as much a matter of overall speed but a balance problem.

“He’s got the point lead. He’s definitely in control,” Hamlin told me and other reporters after the race. “We’re right there. We have finished right where we’ve run [recently]. … This is where we’re at right now on speed.

“Until we get a little bit faster in the short run, we’re going to finish right where we’re at.”

3. Carson Hocevar-Brad Keselowski Incident Unlikely Payback

The latest Hocevar-Keselowski incident was likely not retaliation.

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At the start of Stage 2, Hocevar got loose, starting a chain-reaction wreck. It appeared that he possibly got loose from a shove from Brad Keselowski, a driver he tangled with a few weeks ago and threatened payback.

But Hocevar didn’t think it was payback.

“I don’t think so,” Hocevar told me and other reporters. “If anything, I felt like us trying to merge with whoever was right of me.”

Keselowski likely wouldn’t admit payback, as that potentially would result in sanctions from NASCAR. But he went as far as saying he didn’t know how much damage Hocevar got in it.

“I gave him a push, and then they started wrecking to my right,” Keselowski told me and other reporters. “I couldn’t tell what happened.”

4. Chase Briscoe & Austin Cindric Close But Empty

Chase Briscoe was extremely close to having an epic day.

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Briscoe used up his car in getting by Larson late in the race and then couldn’t hold him off, eventually falling to fourth. 

“When I was behind Kyle, it kind of helped my car,” Briscoe told me and other reporters. “I got the lead and got really, really loose and I had to run the wall to not, honestly, spin out and it left me vulnerable.”

As Briscoe faded, Austin Cindric surged and finished second for just his third top five of the year.

“It’s encouraging,” Cindric told me and another reporter. “I’m proud of everyone. … I just wish we had a little more at the end.”

4 ½. What’s next: Las Vegas

Denny Hamlin won at Vegas earlier this year. Can he get the win he desperately needs next week?

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The Cup Series heads to Las Vegas, where Hamlin has won the last two Cup races and will enter as the favorite.

Larson noted one thing that could help Hamlin. 

“I’m sure it’s not going to rain in Vegas, so we’re going to get to qualify. We’ll see how that kind of shakes the weekend up.”

WHAT YOU SHOULD READ NEXT

Everything To Know About The Chase As NASCAR's Postseason Starts At Darlington

The Chase begins this weekend and Bob Pockrass breaks down everything you need to know about NASCAR’s thrilling postseason.



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Ravens’ Tyler Loop Hits Ronaldo’s ‘Siu’ After Walk-Off FG To

One of soccer’s most iconic celebrations showed up at the Maracanã on Sunday, courtesy of an NFL kicker.

Baltimore Ravens kicker Tyler Loop made a 56-yard field goal as time expired Sunday to beat the Dallas Cowboys 34-31, then celebrated with Cristiano Ronaldo’s “Siu” as the crowd at Maracanã Stadium repeated it back to him.

The “Siu” is Ronaldo’s trademark goal celebration, in which he jumps, spins in the air and lands with his feet wide and his arms at his sides while shouting “Siuuu,” a stretched-out version of the Spanish word for “yes.”

Loop said teammate Ryan Eckley had suggested a soccer-style knee slide after a big kick. He went with the “Siu” instead. With about three minutes left, Loop said, teammate Nick Moore told him, “We’re gonna do something epic to win this game.”

“Our number was called, and Nick (Moore) and Ryan and the guys up front, they all did their job, so I can do mine,” Loop said. “I’m so proud of this team.”

Cowboys kicker Brandon Aubrey made a 23-yard field goal to tie the game at 31 with seven seconds left. Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson then completed a 27-yard pass to Zay Flowers and called a timeout with one second remaining, which set up Loop’s kick.

The game was the NFL’s third in Brazil and its first in Rio de Janeiro, and the announced crowd was 72,792. It was the first American football game played at Maracanã. 

The kick came after a miss in last season’s finale. Loop missed a 44-yard field goal that would have sent the Ravens to the playoffs, and Baltimore lost 26-24 to the Pittsburgh Steelers. He said the team responded to difficulty this season. 

“One thing we talked about was being on one accord,” Loop said. “There was adversity, and then we went and responded, and we delivered, and it was awesome.”

He said the bond with teammates is what he values most about the sport.

“That’s the most special thing about this sport, the fellowship and the togetherness that you can build with those guys,” Loop said. “It’s a blast to see all this come through a lot of adversity between last season and now.”

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MLB Wild-Card Power Rankings: The 8 Teams Who Kick Off

It all came down to Game 162 to round out the 12-team MLB postseason field.

The Astros won the American League West (with the worst full-season record by a playoff team in MLB history) and the Phillies held off a late surge from the Diamondbacks to secure the final National League wild-card spot on the final day of the regular season. 

Despite going just 81-81, the division-champion Astros will get to host the White Sox for their wild-card series. Meanwhile, the Yankees will host the Red Sox, the Braves will host the Phillies and the Padres will host the Cubs, with each best-of-three series beginning Tuesday. 

Let’s rank the eight wild-card teams who’ll play this week for the chance to reach the Division Series. 

Wild Card Opponent: vs. White Sox (winner plays the Guardians)

The Astros made it in with the worst full-season record by a playoff team in MLB history, winning the AL West over the Rangers by a game. Suddenly, they find themselves in a terrific position. They have 13 fewer wins than their No. 3 seed National League counterpart (the Braves), and they get to play a worse team in the wild-card round than Atlanta does. 

Yordan Alvarez finished in top of most offensive categories. (Photo by Ezra Shaw/Getty Images)

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Depth issues have been a problem all year across the roster in Houston, which was a major reason general manager Dana Brown was let go in August. But they did hit the most home runs in MLB this year, and they have AL MVP favorite in Yordan Alvarez to mask some of their offensive issues, which are particularly obvious in an outfield that produced the lowest batting average and on-base percentage in MLB. 

They’re short in the pitching staff, too, but they have Hunter Brown at the top of the rotation and closer Josh Hader — who had a 1.01 ERA while converting all 26 of his save opportunities — at the back end of the bullpen. Plus, their first-round opponent might have even bigger pitching questions than them…

Wild Card Opponent: at Astros (winner plays the Guardians)

Whatever happens from here, this year has been a greater success than anyone could have imagined on Chicago’s South Side. After three straight 100-loss seasons, including the worst season in modern baseball history two years ago, the White Sox are back in the playoffs for the first time since 2021. 

Munetaka Murakami has become a star in the South Side. (Photo by Scott Winters/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

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While they fell short of winning the AL Central after leading the division by three games entering the season’s final month (they went 12-13 while the Guardians went 17-8 in September), the White Sox will get to play the worst team in the playoff field and will enter the postseason with some momentum after winning each of their last three series of the year.  Their young, all-or-nothing offense can mash. They ranked fifth in MLB in home runs — Munetaka Murakami, Miguel Vargas and Colson Montgomery all finished the year with more than 30 homers — though they also had the fifth-most strikeouts in the sport. 

They’ll need those bats to get hot because there are serious questions both in their rotation, which ranked 26th in ERA, and a taxed bullpen that threw the most innings in MLB. 

Wild Card Opponent: at Braves (winner plays the Dodgers)

Well, that was a lot more stressful than it needed to be! The Phillies led the Diamondbacks for the final wild-card spot by four games with five to play … and it still took until Game 162 for Philadelphia to clinch the final NL wild-card spot. 

Kyle Schwarber keeps knocking them out of the park. (Photo by Emilee Chinn/Getty Images)

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The Phillies’ offense was anemic in September, and Jesús Luzardo’s late-season injury certainly didn’t help matters, but they made it in. Considering where this year began (9-19 with their manager fired), it only seems fitting that the ending was also tense and uncomfortable.  

It’s notable that they had to use Aaron Nola on Saturday and Zack Wheeler on Sunday to seal their spot in the postseason, considering so much of their advantage in a short series is the top of their rotation. Being unable to line up Wheeler and uncertain of what Luzardo can provide (though he did throw a scoreless inning Sunday) will make life tougher for them against a Braves team that won the NL East and beat them nine out of 13 times during the regular season. But it was all hands on deck for the Phillies, who ultimately avoided what would have been a devastating collapse to reach the playoffs for a fifth straight year. 

Wild Card Opponent: at Yankees (winner plays the Rays)

It’s hard to overstate just how much Willson Contreras means to this offense, so getting him back in the regular-season finale for the first time since he was hit by a pitch on the hand on Sept. 17 is a huge deal. Contreras ranked third among all qualified MLB players in OPS and hit 51% better than league average by wRC+; his next closest qualified teammate was Wilyer Abreu at 12% above league average.

Willson Contreras leads a scrappy Red Sox side. (Photo by Maddie Malhotra/Boston Red Sox/Getty Images)

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If Contreras is still aching, though, there will be even more pressure on Roman Anthony and deadline acquisition Adley Rutschman to help provide an offensive boost to a team that ranked last in MLB in runs scored in September (and 23rd for the season). Luckily for the Red Sox, both Anthony and Rutschman have been playing well lately, and their pitching staff should keep them competitive against any team. 

The Boston bullpen had the lowest ERA in the sport this year, and the Red Sox rotation offers upside. Rookie Payton Tolle had a 2.59 ERA with 75 strikeouts in 59 innings over his last 10 starts of the season. Sonny Gray went 18-5 with a 2.72 ERA on the year, and Ranger Suarez had a 3.22 ERA. That trio could make life tough on the Yankees’ lineup in the wild-card series.

Wild Card Opponent: at Padres (winner plays the Brewers)

They have the National League MVP frontrunner in Pete Crow-Armstrong, who just put together a 40-40 season that will go down as one of the best in Cubs history. His standout year was not enough, however, to end the Brewers’ reign atop the NL Central or to earn home-field advantage in the wild-card series. 

Is Pete Crow-Armstrong this year’s NL MVP? (Photo by Matt Dirksen/Chicago Cubs/Getty Images)

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The Cubs’ offense slowed down in September, but they still finished the year with the highest OPS in the sport. A significant reason for that was the second-half surge from Alex Bregman. So, it had to feel great for Cubs fans to see Bregman go 4-for-4 with two home runs in the regular season finale, just a week after he suffered facial fractures when he was hit by a foul ball. 

The Cubs have another recent injury to monitor, after Kevin Gausman hurt his non-throwing shoulder while making a tag in his last start. Gausman’s health adds to a growing list of concerns about a beleaguered Cubs pitching staff that had issues both in the rotation (18th in ERA) and bullpen (13th). They do, however, have the best defense in baseball, and their offense is capable of outscoring any opponent they face. 

Wild Card Opponent: vs. Cubs (winner plays the Brewers)

On July 23, the Padres were 50-53 with 7.4% playoff odds, according to FanGraphs. Now, they’re hosting a wild-card series. It has been a tale of two halves for the San Diego offense, which was the worst in MLB before the break and has been one of the best since. It’s not hard to understand why. 

Fernando Tatis Jr. has ramped it up for the Padres down the stretch. (Photo by Ryan Levy/MLB Photos via Getty Images)

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Fernando Tatís Jr. had three home runs through his first 82 games and then launched 22 over his last 72. Jackson Merrill had a .628 OPS in the first half and a .908 OPS in the second half. Their best players look like superstars again, and their bullpen is the most overpowering unit in the sport. 

They’ll need to rely on their relief arms, considering their rotation leaves a lot to be desired, but this is a team no one will want to see in October. They’ve been the best team in baseball since July 24 and will be a threat to anyone they face. That’s especially the case at home, where they went 51-30 this season. 

Wild Card Opponent: vs. Red Sox (winner plays the Rays)

I thought about bumping them further down this list, given the uncertainty surrounding Aaron Judge’s health. I don’t have to tell you how big of a deal it is if he can’t play or look right in the wild-card series. They went 41-25 (.621) when he was in the lineup and 52-43 (.547) when he wasn’t. 

All eyes are on Aaron Judge and his health struggles. (Photo by Dustin Satloff/Getty Images)

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However, Ben Rice is looking more like the MVP contender he was early in the year, Austin Wells has improved at the plate, and Jazz Chisholm Jr. is back from injury. Along with Cody Bellinger, Paul Goldschmidt and deadline additions Heliot Ramos and Luis Garcia Jr., the Yankees may have just enough offense to survive and make a run even without a healthy Judge. 

Most importantly, they’ll have AL Cy Young favorite Cam Schlittler, Gerrit Cole and Max Fried in the rotation. That’s a huge advantage in a wild-card series, even if Cole hasn’t looked quite so sharp lately. They’ll also have Carlos Rodón available, and Will Warren can shift to relief to assist a bullpen that has some real concerns. 

Wild Card Opponent: vs. Phillies (winner plays the Dodgers)

It’s unlikely he’ll win the National League Cy Young Award because Jacob Misiorowski exists, but we can’t overlook what Chris Sale is doing. At 37 years old, he had a 2.16 ERA and 200 strikeouts. He is an ace in every sense of the word. But there’s a lot of pressure on Atlanta to win the game he starts. 

Tyler Mahle, who had a 1.99 ERA in nine starts for the Braves, was brilliant after getting traded to Atlanta at the deadline. But he lacks the typical swing-and-miss stuff you’d like from a starter in October, and the rotation depth gets much thinner after the top two. 

Ronald Acuña Jr. and the Braves have been stout all season. (Photo by Joe Buvid/Getty Images)

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Still, the Braves employ one of the best bullpens in baseball to help shorten games. And while the offense underwhelmed down the stretch, Ronald Acuña Jr. started to heat up at the right time, Matt Olson hit 41 home runs, Drake Baldwin was one of the best catchers in baseball, and Michael Harris II enjoyed a bounceback year. This is the best team in the wild-card field — one that proved last year’s 76-win season was just a blip. 

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NFL Fallout Week 3: The Patriots Are Battling More Than

No one was comparing Mike Vrabel and Drake Maye to Bill Belichick and Tom Brady just yet — not even after the New England Patriots HC-QB duo went to the Super Bowl in their first year together. But Pats fans were feeling pretty good about their future. The franchise seemed set for a sustained run of success.

It turns out that last year, when Vrabel was the Coach of the Year and Maye was nearly the league MVP, were the good old days — already gone, and maybe soon to be forgotten. Because as good as last year was, that’s how bad this year has been.

And the way Maye and the 1-2 Patriots are going, their Super Bowl hangover might linger through the fall.

Yes, it’s almost time to write off the 2026 Patriots, who suffered a humiliating 35-6 loss in Jacksonville on Sunday. Maye, in particular, has been awful this season. He was just 14 of 25 for 199 yards and two interceptions against the Jaguars. Those are basically his season averages through three games, as he’s passed for less than 600 yards and thrown just one touchdown pass with six interceptions.

That puts him among the worst quarterbacks in football, one year after he was easily one of the best. And he’s not alone in his ineptitude. Vrabel appears to have no answers for a team with no running game, no pass rush, no consistency, no spark.

Maybe the world should have seen this coming. When Vrabel should’ve been focused on the NFL draft and laying the groundwork for another Super Bowl run, he was embroiled in personal scandal with NFL insider Dianna Russini this offseason, which included a marriage counseling retreat. That was a bad way to prepare for a season in which his Pats were already facing a big jump in strength of schedule.

Drake Maye has looked nothing like the MVP runner-up from last season — and his Patriots’ Super Bowl run is starting to feel fluky. (Photo by Logan Bowles/Getty Images)

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Still, they should have been good enough to at least not embarrass themselves in the face of stiffer competition. But what they really couldn’t have seen coming was Maye’s regression. The third-year pro looks lost at times on the field. He’s made some incredibly bad decisions. Both his interceptions against the Jaguars were to well-covered receivers who didn’t have much of a chance to make the catch. That included one in the end zone where Maye threw on the run, off his back foot and right into the defender’s hands.

A year ago, when Maye threw 31 touchdown passes and just eight interceptions, he made few decisions like these. He played with poise and remained accurate, even when his offensive line had him under duress.

But through three games this year, he’s just been alarmingly ineffective. And he’s getting no help from an anemic rushing attack. On Sunday, New England’s defense couldn’t get off the field on third downs and was worn down by its own offense repeatedly putting it back on the field. That all falls on Vrabel and his coaching staff. They’d surely argue that his distraction-filled offseason had nothing to do with the Pats’ current problems, but with each stumble, that gets harder to believe.

Coming out of the Super Bowl, albeit a lopsided loss to the Seahawks, I believed they were just getting started on a long run of contention. It feels premature to suggest their title window could already be closing, but it might be too late for them to reverse course in 2026.

Their Waterloo may come this Sunday in Buffalo — a last chance to stop the Bills from turning the AFC East race into a rout. Because after that, even while playing in a division with the Dolphins and the Jets, the Patriots’ schedule is too unforgiving to assume they’ll fix their myriad issues on the field enough to even be in the wild-card hunt.

And that’s shocking, really, because a mere eight months ago there were legitimate reasons to believe that New England was perhaps building another dynasty. The calendar still says September, and the Pats already look like last year’s AFC title was a fluke.

Houston TexansThe Texans Are Done … And Perhaps So Is The C.J. Stroud Era

After three straight years of seemingly knocking on the door of Super Bowl contention, that door has now slammed shut in the face of the Houston Texans. And soon they’re going to have to grapple with a very difficult problem concerning their quarterback:

C.J. Stroud isn’t good enough to lead them to a title.

Right now, this era in Texans football is going to be remembered as a waste. Never mind that they had three trips to the playoffs and three playoff wins in the past three seasons. The bigger picture is they had the best defense in football last season, and maybe the best in the league since DeMeco Ryans became the coach in 2023.

And somehow it just wasn’t enough.

The Texans were one of the best stories in the league in recent seasons but now might be at a crossroads with young QB C.J. Stroud. (Photo by Johnnie Izquierdo/Getty Images)

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Stroud, who was sensational as a rookie in 2023, has been average, at best, ever since. On Sunday, he became a game manager against a Colts defense that had given up a ridiculous 1,029 yards through its first two games. He was just 16 for 27 for 167 yards and a touchdown in the Texans’ 19-17 loss. He’s thrown just three touchdown passes this season.

The Texans started 0-3 last year, too, but their defense was good enough to drag them to the playoffs. This year’s defense is still good, but hasn’t quite shown the same level of dominance. That means that to pull out of this tailspin, the Texans will need to see the dynamic version of Stroud that has been missing the past two-plus years.

Absent that, they’ll head into the offseason wondering if they made a mistake even picking up his fifth-year option, which will pay him $25.9 million in 2027. Given his talent and potential, it was probably worth the relatively low price. But it’s going to be hard to argue Stroud is worth a lucrative, long-term commitment when contract talks resume after the season. It wouldn’t surprise me if the front office was already studying what might be a loaded quarterback draft class.

Minnesota VikingsVikings Are A QB Away From Being Title Contenders

The quarterback situation in Minnesota is bordering on miserable. Kyler Murray, in his first game back from a concussion Sunday, looked like a shell of his former self. Carson Wentz was barely serviceable, not even reaching 300 total yards in Murray’s near-two-game absence. And J.J. McCarthy, the 10th overall pick in 2024, can’t get on the field.

So, how are the Vikings 3-0?

It’s a combination of some impressive defensive play (and scheming by Vikings DC Brian Flores) and O’Connell coaxing just enough offense out of his underwhelming unit. On Sunday, they beat the reeling Tampa Bay Buccaneers 23-16 despite just 168 passing yards from Murray, 78 team rushing yards, and just two catches from top receiver Justin Jefferson before he left with an ankle injury. 

Minnesota pulled off another improbable win by generating six sacks and constant pressure, plus a pair of interceptions inside the final 100 seconds to officially end the game.

Such success is probably unsustainable if the Vikings can’t get more out of their offense. But the way Flores’ defense is playing, they might not need much. If O’Connell can turn Murray into anything close to what he was in Arizona, maybe work some of the magic he conjured up with Sam Darnold two years ago, this becomes a dangerous team.

Right now, the Vikings are probably a notch below the three contenders in the NFC West, and maybe even the Philadelphia Eagles. But don’t count out O’Connell, who might be the early front-runner for NFL Coach of the Year and has gotten the most out of middling QBs in the past.

Cleveland BrownsThe Browns Are No Longer the NFL’s Go-To Punchline Under Todd Monken

The Cleveland Browns were supposed to be one of the worst teams in football, especially after trading away All-Pro defensive end Myles Garrett. And Deshaun Watson was universally considered a well-deserved disaster waiting to happen at quarterback.

But it turns out, maybe Todd Monken wasn’t completely delusional with the confidence he showed heading into his first NFL head coaching job. Because after their 21-18 win over the Panthers on Sunday, the Browns are 2-1, and it would be foolish to dismiss them as a punchline anymore.

They still have issues, particularly at quarterback. Watson wasn’t good at all for the first three quarters against Carolina (10 of 21, 67 yards), before he engineered the game-winning drive late in the fourth quarter and won it with his third touchdown pass. But the embattled QB is surrounded by a host of young talent (RB Quinshon Jenkins, TE Harold Fanin, WR Denzel Boston, DL Jared Verse, LB Carson Schwesinger and more) and a coach who has put them in the right places to succeed against back-to-back NFC South teams.

Maybe it won’t last. And maybe at some point this season Cleveland will be better off giving Shedeur Sanders another look. But don’t dismiss these wins as a fluke. And don’t pretend like there was anyone outside of Monken’s office who thought the Browns were capable of a 2-1 start.

Las Vegas RaidersKirk Cousins Is Making The Fernando Mendoza Debate A Moot Point

Fernando Mendoza figured to be one of the most exciting rookies to watch this season, once the Las Vegas Raiders drafted him in April with the No. 1 overall pick.

Now it’s not clear if we’ll even get a chance to watch him this season at all.

The way Kirk Cousins is playing for the Raiders right now, the wait for Mendoza could be an unexpectedly long one. The 38-year-old Cousins has given the undermanned Raiders exactly what they need: relatively solid and stable play at the most important position. Cousins has thrown nine touchdown passes and just three interceptions. He threw 10 all of last year (in eight starts) and led the NFL in interceptions in 2024.

Stunningly, he’s been the anchor to Las Vegas’ 3-0 start.

Kirk Cousins is playing his best football since tearing his Achilles in 2023. (Photo by Cooper Neill/Getty Images)

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Now, the Raiders’ schedule has been suspect — they’ve beaten the 0-3 Dolphins, the 0-3 Dolphins and now the 1-2 Saints. But two of those wins came as road underdogs. Over the next eight weeks, they’ll play Kansas City, Buffalo, the Rams, San Francisco, Seattle and Denver, so maybe the bubble is about to burst. But Cousins’ presence has at least given the Raiders a chance to get better, and maybe to even stay on the fringe of the playoff chase for a little while.

As long as he’s doing that, there’s no rush for coach Klint Kubiak to turn things over to Mendoza. The kid can learn plenty by standing on the sidelines, watching the veteran lead the team, adopt good habits and build a strong culture. That’ll make it easier for Mendoza when he does finally play.

In other words, there’s no reason to rush the rookie. The Raiders’ future can wait.

NFL

  • The season is over in Los Angeles, at least on whatever is considered the Chargers’ side of town. At 0-3, they’re not going to survive a brutal early schedule that has them playing Seattle, Denver, Kansas City, the Rams, Houston and Baltimore over the next seven weeks. The Chargers’ bigger issue is what to do about this mess. Jim Harbaugh (signed through 2028) and Justin Herbert (2029) aren’t going anywhere. They could fire their general manager (Joe Horitz) or change offensive coordinators again, but the heart of their team in 2027 will likely look a lot like it does now. 
  • I am as big of a Geno Smith skeptic as you can find, but give him some credit: He was terrific against the Detroit Lions on Sunday (31 of 37, 321 yards, 3 touchdowns) and he still hasn’t thrown an interception through three games this year. I still think in the long run he’ll be a liability at QB, but he is an enormous upgrade over 2025 starter Justin Fields. Between Smith’s play and the revamped defense that Aaron Glenn and GM Darren Mougey put together in the offseason, the Jets are actually competitive and watchable. They’re only 1-2 after Sunday’s 31-24 defeat, but they’re far from the disaster they’ve been in recent years.
  • Both Jameis Winston (stepping in for the injured Jaxson Dart) and Marcus Mariota (in for Jayden Daniels) won on Sunday, but only one team left feeling good about its backup QB. Mariota was stellar against a strong Seahawks defense (19 of 31, 183 yards, 3 TDs). Winston was shaky against a bad Titans team (14 of 22, 118 yards). Daniels is expected back in the next couple of weeks, but with Dart out for the season, the Giants are planning to bring in another veteran QB to at least push Winston. The speculation centers on free agent Jimmy Garoppolo, Chiefs backup Justin Fields and Vikings third-stringer J.J. McCarthy. The Giants were originally just looking for Winston insurance. But if his play doesn’t improve, they might be looking for someone to step in and start as soon as they’re ready.

In NFL Fallout, Ralph Vacchiano breaks down the impact of the biggest events every Sunday.



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