The shine is starting to come off Vikings coach Kevin O’Connell, once heralded as the rising QB guru. Not long ago, he coaxed productive seasons out of Kirk Cousins and Sam Darnold — and there was so much to like about O’Connell’s coaching résumé.
Now? It’s complicated and, frankly, less than impressive. After Vikings backup QB Carson Wentz’s brutal performance on Monday night against the Bills, the Vikings will be the team to watch at today’s deadline — because they should trade for a quarterback (again).
Welcome back to QB Stock Market. These aren’t your typical quarterback rankings. I focus on contextualizing the fluctuations of starters’ performances throughout the season. And every week, I’ll dive deeply into the four most compelling performers.
No one — not even Josh Allen — is safe at the top. No one — not even Joe Fagnano — is stuck at the bottom. There is room for quick ascent — and rapid decline. One question holds the most importance: What have you done for your team lately?
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Thank goodness Baltimore traded for Jacoby Brissett, because Fagnano isn’t going to steer the Ravens into playoff contention. But if Brissett can get them on track, maybe they could be relevant in December when/if Lamar Jackson returns from his thumb injury.
Milton is an incredible athlete. He’s not a great quarterback. But given the total collapse of the Eagles’ offense, Milton’s athleticism might be more of an asset than a skilled quarterback would be. There aren’t many QBs who could operate this jalopy of an offense.
Previous ranking: 29 ↓
To his credit, Herbert keeps battling in an effort to get a win for the Chargers. But maybe he wants it too much. Against the Texans in Week 9, he kept his streak alive with one interception in every game so far this season.
Wentz’s Monday night catastrophe made Kyler Murray look pretty darn competent. Because remember: Before his hamstring injury, Murray was productive against much better defenses than Buffalo’s.
O’Connell is starting to enter desperation territory with all the QB transactions that have gone poorly for the Vikings in the past few years. But they’re trying again, trading for former Minnesota QB Kirk Cousins on Tuesday. After losing two straight, the Vikings may have thought they had no choice.
Previous ranking: 30 ↑
It felt like he played a little bit better this week, in part because the Cowboys’ defense stinks but also in part because — maybe — he must have wanted to put on a good show for other teams.
This whole situation is dismal. Mayfield has never been worse.
No, seriously. I’m not even being hyperbolic.
His expected points added per dropback (-.32) is the worst of his career — by far. His next worst season was with the Rams (-.18 EPA/dropback), which gets graded on a curve given that they plunked him into the offense midseason after they traded for him following Matthew Stafford’s injury.
There are 11 quarterbacks who have a better EPA/dropback under pressure than Mayfield has on all of his dropbacks. And Mayfield’s EPA/dropback is equal to Jameis Winston’s … under pressure.
Yeesh.
His receivers have never been worse — and his tight ends aren’t great either. But his offensive line has been pretty good, which reflects poorly on Mayfield’s awful year.
To some degree, the Buccaneers have to own some of the blame. Last year, it was clear that Mayfield wasn’t good enough to overcome a diminished pass-catching core. With Mike Evans and Chris Godwin in and out of the lineup, Mayfield spent most of last year fighting doggedly to dink and dunk his way to victories, and it simply didn’t work. But the Bucs extended Mayfield despite a thinning receiving corps. And now, this is what they get.
Their reliance on the run game would be fine, but it’s a full-blown dependence. Let’s not mince words: Mayfield has fallen off a cliff.
The Buccaneers — as a team — are probably good enough to win the NFC South. But Mayfield has not looked this bad since his tenure with the Browns. Against the Bears on Sunday night, we saw more problems, with Mayfield throwing off target — and out of sync.
The Bucs have to hope it’s the thumb injury and that this isn’t the new normal for the 31-year-old QB, whose contract won’t be easy to shed until 2028. This passing offense is a total mess. Because they’re in the perennially weak NFC South, the Bucs are only one game out of first place in the division. They are incentivized to get things right. I just doubt they will.
The Lions’ defense is ascending quickly, so Willis’ numbers (128 passing yards, 1 INT, 3 sacks) weren’t quite as bad as they seemed in Miami’s Week 9 loss. But the Dolphins are doing what I thought they’d do to Willis. They’re throwing him to the wolves without a fair shake.
What I expect next: In April, Miami will draft a QB to replace Willis.
The QB is headed to IR. Third-round rookie Carson Beck will get eight games to make an impression on the Cardinals.
Previous ranking: 20 ↓
It was an incomplete game, with McCarthy playing through a hip pointer that looked extremely painful. Overall, though, the jury is still out on McCarthy. Can he stay healthy? Can he layer the football? Plenty of season left for us to find out.
For those who are counting, Lock has zero interceptions in three appearances. Sam Darnold has seven interceptions in six appearances (excluding the season opener when he threw two passes before leaving with an injury).
Previous ranking: 21 ↓
Penix has become useless against pressure. This week, it was more evident than ever: 1-of-9 for minus-3 yards and an interception under pressure.
Previous ranking: 25 ↑
Don’t sleep on Ward. He is quietly making progress. Maybe it’s not as fast or exponential as people might have hoped, but it’s progress.
The Saints’ defense is hardly a good litmus test for a QB — New Orleans has allowed the fifth-most passing yards per game this year — but Sanders looked solid.
Previous ranking: 22 ↑
He is what his offense makes of him. And right now, the Jets’ offense doesn’t have much to offer.
Previous ranking: 14 ↓
It might seem easy to turn to No. 1 pick Fernando Mendoza now as the answer to the Raiders’ issues after Cousins was traded. But that won’t fix the Raiders’ many problems, especially on the defensive side of the ball.
Maybe you turn to Mendoza because you want the future to begin, but Cousins played pretty well for the Raiders before his trade back to Minnesota.
Massive NFC North catchup in Week 10: Steelers @ Bengals. Can Aaron Rodgers keep pace with Joe Burrow?
He put together a nice performance in Carolina’s 26-21 loss to the Broncos. I dogged Young for weeks about being unable to beat the blitz, but he was good: 8-of-11 for 77 yards, a touchdown and an interception (which feels excusable because of an uncalled DPI). Still, the Panthers need wins, not moral victories.
Previous ranking: 12 ↓
It goes against basic quarterback evaluation to chalk up a QB’s success to wins and losses. But right now, I think that’s where Stafford’s head is at.
Last year, he had gaudy numbers and got plenty of accolades, in part because his team was comfortably in playoff position. Now, with the 5-4 Rams fighting to stay alive, Stafford’s play has gotten uglier — and he’s just barely getting it done. But he seems satisfied with his play, because they’re scraping together wins.
This Rams’ passing offense really works when Puka Nacua and Davante Adams are on the field. But it turns out, when L.A. doesn’t have both players, it gets really, really, really messy. And ugly. This week, the only thing that worked was throwing to Nacua, who, if Stafford threw to no one else, lifted the QB to a performance that Geno Smith would’ve been happy with.
To Nacua, Stafford was 14-of-19 for 150 yards with one touchdown and one interception. To everyone else, Stafford was 12-of-14 for 78 yards. Those are some damning splits. And now that Nacua is headed to IR (knee/foot), the stat splits must be truly horrifying for L.A.
Nacua could be back by the end of the regular season, but he might not be back until the playoffs (if the Rams make it). Meanwhile, Adams might not be back until December due to his hamstring injury.
The Rams can still grit out wins behind their running backs and their defense. That’ll be their recipe for success. In the meantime, Stafford will have to do whatever he can to get the ball to (Googles Rams’ depth chart) Konata Mumpfield, Tutu Atwell and Jordan Whittington.
Previous ranking: 19 ↑
I want to give Bo Nix his flowers for turning his season around. Maybe someday I will.
Nix was, for many weeks earlier this year, a guy who’d lost himself. This turnaround (toward competence) clearly points to coach Sean Payton making the right call in taking back playcalling from OC Davis Webb and changing the verbiage, which resulted, initially, in more setbacks for Nix.
Things are getting better. That’s easy to see.
On Sunday, Nix played with less fear. But I don’t want to go overboard in praising him for using checkdowns and hitch routes to beat the Panthers, the fifth-worst defense in points per game allowed.
Even his game-winning touchdown was ho-hum. The Panthers had a busted coverage and Broncos receiver Pat Bryant was running free down the seam. My favorite throw from Nix fell incomplete. On the Broncos’ opening drive from the 3-yard line, he threw across his body while escaping pressure. And Nix put it in a spot where only his guy could catch it. But in this case, Bryant did not.
On the next play, however, Nix nearly took a 30-yard sack.
I’m still having a hard time getting excited about the Broncos. I’m still having a hard time getting excited about Nix. This formula worked last year, but this year, the AFC is full of juggernauts. The Broncos don’t seem to have what it takes to get past the Bills or the Jaguars. And maybe not the Chiefs or the Bengals either.
Sam Darnold? Is that you?
Three interceptions? Three interceptions. I thought Maye was past this.
Previous ranking: 15 ↑
When Commanders rookie receiver Antonio Williams dropped a pass that hit him in stride on third down in the fourth quarter, my heart broke a little for Daniels. He makes mistakes, sure. But it just feels like too many things are going wrong in Washington for Daniels to succeed.
Previous ranking: 13 ↑
I’ve been sticking with Shough — even when maybe the numbers don’t make sense. But I felt vindicated by his performances against a Browns defense that most QBs have not figured out this year. Shough threw for 265 yards and a touchdown. He ran for 50 more yards.
It was a really complete and impressive game from Shough.
The Dolphins have caught a bunch of quarterbacks off guard this year. But man, what was this from Goff? A total stinker.
Previous ranking: 10 ↑
He beat up on the Colts, because it’s the Colts. But in classic form, the Cowboys let the Colts linger, even in a season when Indy is transparently tanking.
Previous ranking: 11 ↑
The Texans still have a 35% chance at making the playoffs, and that’s 99% thanks to Stroud.
Williams has never been interception-prone. He seemed to learn a handful of important lessons this year about game management.
It’s probably an outlier game. But … what we saw from Williams was alarming: four interceptions. Four!
Every week, Burrow has put on a clinic. The only downside has been his six interceptions.
It’s such a crowded MVP race, so I won’t pretend that Lawrence is likely to be relevant. But that shouldn’t diminish what he’s accomplished this year. He is one of the most valuable players in the NFL. And that’s a real compliment to him with so much good QB play so far this year.
No receivers. No problem. Purdy has stayed consistent despite a less-than-desirable injury situation.
There is a groundswell of criticism that Mahomes is nothing more than a dink-and-dunk merchant — which is downright comical. He has been so steady, and his top-tier talent is undeniable. He is only boring because of his sustained dominance. And honestly, if you think that him playing through an injury is boring, I can’t help you.
It would be one thing if Love was dominating in an offense that had 11 (or even eight) effective players. But right now, the QB has really only needed receivers Christian Watson and Matthew Golden to whoop opposing defenses.
This year, Love has contended with a bad run game (32nd in yards per game and 31st in yards per carry) and a poor offensive line (eighth-most pressures allowed). And it seemed like that could finally hit a breaking point this week, because he had a matchup against a top-10 defense on the road. Surely, New England would bottle up the Packers?
Nope!
Love had the best game of the year by an NFL quarterback — and maybe the best game of his life.
He was 23-of-29 for 372 yards with three touchdowns. Against pressure, he was 6-of-9 for 153 yards with a completion percentage over expected at 33.1%. He floated balls into open space where Watson and Golden could track them down. He ripped balls deep downfield to the sideline — with just enough space for his receivers to toe-tap before going out of bounds.
The Patriots’ defense had a game plan, with some disguises on the back end. They had some blitz packages — sending 10 blitzes at Love. Nothing fazed him. He was, in fact, perfect against the blitz, going 10-of-10 for 146 yards.
And then there was the matter of Christian Gonzalez. He was widely considered the best cornerback in football, allowing 196 total yards going into the matchup against the Packers. In one game, Love doubled that number, using Watson and Golden, who tallied 10 receptions and 187 yards on 11 targets with Gonzalez in coverage, per Next Gen Stats.
With all the weaknesses and vulnerabilities in the Packers’ offense, Love went after the Patriots’ biggest strength. And he put together a career performance.
I’m not sure Josh Allen has played his best football this year, and given that he and the Bills just kicked the snot out of the once-undefeated Vikings, it’s intimidating to consider the juggernaut Allen and the Bills could become.
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