Welcome to the Quarterback Notebook, where I’ll cover the past week in NFL quarterbacking — from the most interesting passers, plays and storylines to some other stuff that caught my eye while watching film this week.
This week, we’ll ask the Bengals to let Joe Burrow cook, dig into Jalen Hurts’ issues against the blitz, and get frustrated over Bo Nix’s checkdowns.
Let’s talk quarterbacks.
Building a more comprehensive under-center offense was a pet project for the Bengals this past offseason, and it took about 3.5 games for the team to scrap it. You could make out the exact moment when Burrow decided enough was enough.
It came on the opening drive of the third quarter in Sunday’s loss to Jacksonville. Burrow was sacked on an under-center dropback on the very first play. After getting the drive back on track, Burrow lined up under center again and handed it off to Chase Brown, who was stuffed behind the line of scrimmage. The Bengals offense had logged 11 under-center plays up until that point. They ran just one more, a QB sneak at the goal line, for the rest of the game.
Cincinnati had just three points before flipping that switch. Burrow, who’s most comfortable in the gun, found a rhythm and nearly led a second-half comeback. Some of the plays he made during that rally were unreal.
He finished with over 400 passing yards on 54 attempts, which offensive coordinator Dan Pitcher called “not sustainable” after the game. Meanwhile, Burrow suggested the Bengals should “throw it more” to make up for a struggling run game.
Those seem like opposing viewpoints, but I agree with both sides. While throwing it 50-plus times is unsustainable for almost every team in the NFL, the Bengals have built their roster to be one of the few teams that can do it. Between the contracts they’ve given to Burrow and his two star wideouts, and the resources they’ve poured into the offensive line, they’re spending a lot on their dropback passing game.
Burrow is one of the few quarterbacks who’s been better in obvious passing situations this season. Per Next Gen Stats, he’s averaging 8.6 yards per attempt and 0.14 expected points added per dropback on plays with a pre-snap pass probability over 75% – based on down and distance and the score of the game. In all other situations, he’s averaging 6.4 yards per attempt and 0.0 EPA per dropback.
Burrow should be better in situations where defenses can’t hone in on the pass, but the under-center portions of the pass game have tanked his early-down numbers.
Cincinnati may want to be a hard-nosed team that can line up under center and mash the football on the ground, but it doesn’t have the horses to do it. As Burrow said before the season, “A big part of the under center is the run game, and in the run game you have to break tackles to make it go, so we’ll see come the first game.”
Four games in, and Bengals running backs aren’t doing a good job of breaking tackles. They’re averaging a league-low 1.7 yards after contact. They’re one of three teams with no rush attempts that have gone for more than 10 yards “over expected,” per Next Gen Stats. Brown and backup Samaje Perine are solid backs who contribute to the pass game, but neither moves the needle as a runner.
If Cincinnati wants to make its ground game more explosive, it should look at how Kansas City did it this past offseason, and how Philadelphia did it in its Super Bowl-winning season. Those teams didn’t do it with a schematic overhaul. They added a superstar back who could turn three-yard gains into explosive plays.
Unless the Bengals want to call the Eagles and ask about Saquon Barkley’s availability — wait, that’s actually a pretty good idea — they need to drop this under-center plan and just let Burrow cook.
We in the media throw around the word “blitz” too loosely. Any time five or more rushers come after the quarterback, we call it a “blitz.” Coaches use it a bit differently. To them, a “blitz” is an all-out pressure where the secondary plays man coverage across the field with no safety help — or Cover 0, as it’s conventionally known.
Here’s former NFL coach Wade Phillips complaining about our usage of the term back in 2016.
Apologies to Wade, but we still haven’t learned in the ten years since he tweeted that out, and we’re still using “blitz” as a catch-all term.
I say all that to say this: Hurts doesn’t have a blitz problem. In fact, he hasn’t seen many this season. Per Pro Football Focus, the Eagles quarterback has faced Cover 0 on just four dropbacks this season. Three of them came in the red zone, and the other came on a fourth-and-22 play against Chicago.
Hurts doesn’t have issues against all-out blitzes; he struggles against the five-man pressures Wade calls “dogs.” More specifically, he’s been rendered completely ineffective when teams send a five-man pressure with a two-deep zone behind it. His numbers on the season against those looks, via Pro Football Focus:
13 dropbacks
2 completions
13 passing yards
-10 sack yards
1 touchdown
The lone touchdown accounted for all of Hurts’ passing yards against the two-high zone pressures. That was wide receiver Darius Cooper’s jump-ball touchdown against the Rams this past Sunday, which could have been intercepted. Here are all 13 of the dropbacks against those defensive looks.
The core issue is one that Eagles fans have heard often: Hurts isn’t comfortable ripping throws over the middle against zone coverage. Against these two-deep zone defenses, the middle is wide open, whether it’s the Cover 2 or Quarters variant.
If you’re not attacking the middle of the field against those looks, you’re playing into the defense’s hands. The flats are well covered by the corners, and with two-deep safeties, it’s difficult to connect on deep perimeter shots, which have been the strength of Hurts’ game throughout his career. On top of that, with five rushers clogging up the interior rush lanes, Hurts has to get to the perimeter to scramble, where he’s not nearly as effective.
The Eagles offense was tormented by the same defensive looks back in 2023 and never found a solution. The fix came the following offseason when Saquon Barkley joined the team and started ripping off explosive runs. That changed how defenses could play Philadelphia. Now, with the run game struggling and Barkley out injured, the passing game is back where it was three years ago.
Nick Sirianni and Hurts have had three years to think about this problem. They have only 13 games to show they’ve figured it out and avoid some uncomfortable offseason conversations.
It’s time for the internet’s favorite (and only) all-22 screenshot-based game show: “Where Did He Throw It?”
If you’re unfamiliar with the game, the rules are simple: I show you a screenshot of a quarterback at the top of his dropback, and you guess which receiver gets the target.
Nix is in the hot seat this time. The play came on a second-and-4 early in Sunday’s loss to the 49ers. Nix has just finished his drop after a play-action fake, and he has four receiving options downfield:
So where did he throw it? Your options are…
A. Wide receiver Marvin Mims on the deep post designed to take the top off the coverage.
B. Tight end Evan Engram running the deep over route toward the left sideline.
C. Running back R.J. Harvey in the flat, with a cornerback in position to rally for the tackle.
D. Tight end Nate Adkins over the middle.
If you guessed B, you feel the same way head coach Sean Payton and offensive coordinator Davis Webb likely did when they watched the film back on Sunday night. That’s the route this play is designed to open up. Mims’ route pushes back the third level of the coverage. Harvey’s presence in the flat keeps Ji’Ayr Brown pinned down on the outside. Adkins occupies Fred Warner’s attention in the middle. Engram is running into open grass, and Nix has plenty of time and space in the pocket to make the throw.
Instead, he does this…
Congrats to everyone who picked D. You’re either familiar with Nix’s game or really like checkdowns.
That was one of the 13 checkdowns Nix threw against San Francisco, per Pro Football Focus. Only Raiders quarterback Kirk Cousins has thrown more in a single game this season. I watched all those dropbacks so you didn’t have to, and I found seven instances when Nix passed up an open option downfield to check it down.
Nix has thrown 30 checkdowns this season, per Pro Football Focus. That’s tied with Lions quarterback Jared Goff for the league lead. That wouldn’t be a bad thing if Nix wasn’t turning down big play opportunities to make those safe passes. Checkdowns can keep an offense on track. But Nix isn’t doing that for the Broncos offense.
If he’s not going to throw it downfield, Nix should consider scrambling more often. It’s one of his strengths, and he hasn’t tapped into it nearly enough this season. Only three quarterbacks who have logged at least 100 dropbacks have fewer scrambles than Nix this season: Steelers QB Aaron Rodgers, Packers QB Jordan Love and Cousins. Rodgers and Cousins can’t move, and Love is getting hit before he can even consider scrambling. Nix has no excuses.
I remain skeptical of Bryce Young’s hot start to the season, but his performance Sunday against the Lions made me reconsider my stance on the Panthers quarterback. We’ve seen Young succeed by throwing perimeter go balls to his two big receivers, but he won a different way against the Lions. He targeted the middle of the field with confidence, which has been difficult to find on his tape over the first few seasons of his career. If Young can produce more passing maps like this against better defenses, he’ll have a much higher ceiling going forward.
Considering the situation, that’s a ludicrous decision by Dak Prescott. Most quarterbacks see Texans safety Jalen Pitre buzzing underneath receiver CeeDee Lamb’s route and take the checkdown for a short gain to set up a manageable third down. This is a game of “Where did he throw it?” that Bo Nix definitely fails. But Prescott is a madman in the best way possible, which is why football nerds will always cherish him.
This is seriously the worst throw I’ve ever seen from Justin Herbert. He’s had some playoff stinkers, but I’ve never seen him play as poorly as he did in the first half against the Seahawks. He was terrible, but I’m ashamed to admit that his second half pulled me right back in. I’m going down with the ship, and here’s why:
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