The NFC South is seen by most as the worst division in the NFL, and it’s a well-earned distinction.

Since the NFL went to a 17-game schedule in 2021, only twice has a team won a division title with a losing record, and both came from the NFC South: the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in 2022 (8-9) and the Carolina Panthers in 2025 (8-9), who both lost at home in the wild-card round.

The division hasn’t done much to change that perception this year. Carolina is atop the division with a 3-3 record, which would have it alone in last place in the NFC North or AFC North. The NFC South is hardly the only bad division in the NFL. The AFC South, despite having the 4-2 Jacksonville Jaguars, has fewer total wins than the NFC South, and by point differential, the NFC East is somehow 47 points worse.

The fact remains that some team will win the division, and that’s not an easy call to make. Three days ago, the Bucs had the worst record in the NFC at 1-5. Now, they’re 1.5 games out of first with a tiebreaker edge on the Panthers after a surprising 43-13 win in Charlotte. If the Panthers lose at the Packers on Thursday night, you could argue that the winner of Sunday’s Atlanta Falcons-Buccaneers game in Tampa might become the team to beat in the division.

Both Atlanta and Tampa Bay have played with backup quarterbacks, with the Falcons opening 0-2 with Cooper Rush starting and the Buccaneers going 1-2 with undrafted rookie Jalon Daniels stepping in when Baker Mayfield injured his thumb. Michael Penix Jr. has thrown three touchdown passes in each of the last two games, and the Bucs rushed for 258 yards in routing the Panthers, so there’s momentum on both sides.

Bryce Young and the Panthers seemed to have the inside track to win the NFC South before their blowout loss to the Buccaneers. (Photo by David Jensen/Getty Images)

Sunday’s Falcons-Buccaneers game has both teams’ strengths going directly against each other, too. Atlanta ranks sixth in rushing yards per game and fourth in rushing yards allowed; Tampa Bay ranks third and second in the same categories. So will the Falcons’ Bijan Robinson take control of the game, or the Bucs’ Bucky Irving? To add to the fun, Tampa Bay’s offensive coordinator, Zac Robinson, had the same job with the Falcons the last two years, and back in January, Mayfield took a shot at new Falcons coach Kevin Stefanski, upset that he didn’t hear from his old coach when the Browns traded him to Carolina in 2022.

“Still waiting on a text/call from him after I got shipped off like a piece of garbage,” Mayfield wrote over the offseason. “Can’t wait to see you twice a year, Coach.”

For a division that’s close in the standings — it could be a single game separating top and bottom by Sunday night — the three division games haven’t been close at all. The Bucs won by 30 against the Panthers, who beat the Falcons (with Rush at QB) by 31, and the Falcons beat the Saints by 21. New Orleans has lost four of five entering its Week 8 bye, but the Saints also have more time to right the ship, with four division games in the final five weeks of the season.

Michael Penix Jr. and the Falcons could be in control in the NFC South race if they beat the Buccaneers on Sunday. (Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images)

The Bucs are the only NFC South team that has outscored their opponents over the entire season, as they’re only the third team in the last 15 years to be 2-5 and have a positive point differential. And it’s a wild precedent, but the other two teams to do so — the 2018 Indianapolis Colts and the 2022 Jacksonville Jaguars — not only made the playoffs from a 2-5 start, but also each won a playoff game.

Tampa Bay has the best defense in the division right now, ranking third in yards allowed, well ahead of Atlanta (19), Carolina (22) and New Orleans (28). The Bucs have 10 sacks in the last two games, so if Mayfield’s healthy return can spark the offense, the other side of the ball is doing enough to win games.

Division games will likely decide this year’s NFC South champ, but it’s also fair to look at remaining strength of schedule. The Bucs are 0-5 against teams currently with a winning record, but they also have the fewest games remaining against such opponents. They have only three games against teams with records better than .500, fewer than the Saints (4), Falcons (5) and especially the Panthers (7). Carolina’s non-division opponents are a combined 32-15 this season, while the five teams Tampa Bay has lost to are a combined 24-9 right now.

We saw this coming before the season, but with news that the Las Vegas Raiders will stick with Kirk Cousins for now and keep Fernando Mendoza on the bench despite four straight losses, it continues to be a remarkably quiet season for rookie quarterbacks.

Seven weeks in, rookie quarterbacks have combined for just four touchdown passes (and three were from Buccaneers QB Jalon Daniels) and that’s the lowest in any season since 2007, when there was one at this point. There were at least 20 touchdown passes thrown by rookie quarterbacks in eight of nine seasons between 2016-24, then just 14 last year, now four.

The rookie we might see starting next? Arizona Cardinals rookie Carson Beck, a third-round pick out of Miami (Fla.) who has yet to take a snap, is waiting behind veteran starter Jacoby Brissett. Brissett isn’t the reason the Cardinals have lost five of six, as they have the NFL’s worst defense, giving up a league-high 29.7 points per game. But that means they’re constantly trailing and Brissett has thrown an NFL-high 282 passes.

There isn’t an easy spot to pivot to either rookie, though. Las Vegas’ bye isn’t until Week 13, and Arizona’s is Week 14, and coaches don’t want to have a quarterback’s first NFL experience be a run of crushing defeats. If there’s a market for a veteran passer at the trade deadline, Cousins and Brissett would be natural targets, so that could create an opening to put rookies on the field as well.

Who Is The Next NFL Kicker To Go?

It’s that time of the season where a coach’s patience with a struggling kicker runs out. We’ve already seen the Los Angeles Rams move on from Harrison Mevis, and three other NFL kickers have already missed five field goals this season. 

The biggest name is the Kansas City Chiefs’ Harrison Butker, who has never missed more than six field goals in a season, but is 11-for-16 after two more misses in Sunday’s loss to Seattle. He hasn’t made a field goal longer than 50 yards and is 2-for-6 on 50+ kicks, after being a 66 percent kicker on 50+ entering this season.

“He’s been one of the most consistent kickers in football,” Chiefs coach Andy Reid said after the game. “He’s off a bit, so got to fix it.”

Two kickers who have earned much less leeway are rookies: Green Bay Packers kicker Trey Smack, who is 11-for-16 like Butker, and New York Giants kicker Dominic Zvada, who is 13-for-18. Smack, a sixth-round pick, has missed four field goals in the last three weeks, including two in a three-point loss to the Lions on Sunday. Zvada, an undrafted rookie, has all five misses in the last three weeks, split between two games close enough that they went to overtime.

Cutting a kicker can be expensive. San Francisco 49ers kicker Eddy Piñeiro has missed seven total kicks this year, including an extra point Sunday that meant San Francisco was down two scores late in a 29-20 loss to the Falcons. However, the 49ers signed Piñeiro to a contract this year that includes $8 million guaranteed over the next two years, so it’s not as simple a financial decision as most kicker cuts are.

And what if you can’t even get your offense into field-goal range? Philadelphia Eagles kicker Jake Elliott has five field-goal attempts in seven games, putting him on pace for 12 over a full season — seven fewer than his career low in his 10-year career. It’d be fine if he were busy with extra points, but Philadelphia is 29th in scoring.

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The NBA season is off to an electric start, and Tuesday’s slate brings more fireworks with some of the biggest superstars on the court. New users on Kalshi can claim a $55 bonus with promo code FOXSPORTS and get in on the action as early-season momentum starts to take shape.

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Out West, Luka Dončić is coming off a spectacular 52-point performance against Utah, leading the Lakers for a 132-123 victory to start the season 3-0.

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DET Pistons	40%	40¢	61¢
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DET Pistons	+4.5 (-115)	O 220.5 (-112)	+145
NY Knicks	-4.5 (-105)	U 220.5 (-108)	-175

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LA Lakers	-1.5 (-112)	U 233.5 (-112)	-120

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Tonight could be the last night to take advantage of the Fanatics Sportsbook for the MLB season. The first elimination game comes in Game 4 of the World Series. The Milwaukee Brewers look to finish off the Tampa Bay Rays tonight in Tampa Bay. New customers can use the promo code FOX350 to bet $20 and get $350 in bonus bets.

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DET Pistons	+4.5 (-115)	O 220.5 (-112)	+145
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LA Lakers	-1.5 (-112)	U 233.5 (-112)	-120

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NIL. Transfer Portal. Nine-game conference schedules.

These are among the primary forces driving parity across college football. Traditional powerhouses can no longer count on stockpiling talent behind established starters, as more players find opportunities elsewhere to get on the field right away. When talent is equated, outcomes often come down to scheme and execution.

But there’s another development worth noting: There has never been more scrutiny on college football coaches and the desire to win now.

The Heat Is On

Four Power Four coaches were fired this past week — Maryland head coach Mike Locksley, NC State head coach Dave Doeren, Baylor head coach Dave Aranda and first-year Oregon offensive coordinator Drew Mehringer — underscoring the pressure coaches endure early in the season and how crucial it is to get off to a fast start.

The significant investments donors make in college football programs have only heightened the urgency to see a return. I call it the “Cignetti effect.” When a downtrodden program like Indiana can go from the worst in college football, and then hit the jackpot with Cignetti, winning a national championship two years later, that’s a problem for the rest of the sport. 

Suddenly, every fan base is asking the same question: Why not us?

Oregon offensive coordinator Drew Mehringer was fired following the Ducks’ third loss of the season. (Photo by Ali Gradischer/Getty Images)

Alumni and donors pour millions into their programs expecting to see them rise to prominence. When results don’t come quickly, someone has to take the blame. 

Sometimes, the criticism is justified. Other times, there needs to be more patience.

When a coaching change is made, it can be challenging for a quarterback to adapt to a new offense, which can be akin to learning a new language. A new playcaller might come in with a different style and personality. It takes time to get used to that, and often times, there is a feeling-out period during a game.

The questions running through a signal-caller’s mind are: How aggressive will the new playcaller be? Will they trust me after I make a mistake?

There’s nothing worse than a playcaller who calls a downfield pass, and then puts you in handcuffs for the rest of the game if there’s a bad result.

When it came to Mehringer’s case, his offense simply struggled to meet the expectations of Oregon fans, who had national championship aspirations after quarterback Dante Moore announced he would return for his final season. Moore entered the season with +800 odds to win the Heisman Trophy, the fourth-best odds in the country.

A close call against Boise State in the opener — the Broncos are now 6-1 and ranked No. 20 in the AP Top 25 — sparked frustration that began to fester in the coming weeks.

Then came a road loss to Oklahoma State, which is now 5-2 and ranked No. 24 in the AP Poll. The criticism grew louder. A dominant win over Portland State did little to quiet the concerns, but the season appeared to be back on track the following week when backup quarterback Dylan Raiola replaced an injured Moore against USC and led the Ducks to victory.

Oregon quarterback Dylan Raiola led the Ducks to a 41-27 win over USC before being benched the following week against UCLA. (Photo by Robin Alam/ISI Photos/ISI Photos via Getty Images)

Raiola looked poised, confident, and up for the challenge of leading Oregon for the foreseeable future. That optimism lasted just one week. After a slow start against UCLA, Raiola was benched in a loss. Brock Thomas got the start against Nebraska the following week, only to struggle early and get benched himself. Raiola returned and saved the day.

There would be no hero for Oregon this past week. The Ducks were without several receivers following an off-field incident and, for the third straight week, failed to score more than 17 points.

Only two Power Four programs have started three different quarterbacks in their first six games this season: Oregon and Syracuse. It’s extremely difficult to find an offensive rhythm when you’re rotating quarterbacks with different skill sets and trying to establish consistent execution. Injuries and off-field issues affecting the skill players around them only make matters more challenging.

Then comes the desperation. Calling plays like this is a sign you’re grabbing for anything you believe will give you a chance to be successful.

Some will ask, “was it the Xs and Os that led to Mehringer’s firing?” No. Mehringer was more a victim of circumstances than anything he did scheme-wise. 

In the end, Mehringer was relieved of his duties before completing his first season as offensive coordinator. The move also marked the end of a relationship with a coach who had been on Dan Lanning’s staff since 2022.

The news was followed by Baylor’s decision to dismiss Aranda, whose team is 4-3 this season. He finished his tenure with a .500 overall record. On Saturday, North Carolina State fired Doeren, the winningest coach in program history, while Maryland dismissed Locksley earlier last week.

These decisions will only make administrators more comfortable when it comes to making a move in hopes of satisfying outside noise from donors and fans.

I believe it’s unrealistic to give a playcaller half a season to find a rhythm in an offense that has battled injuries, played musical chairs at quarterback, and struggled to establish an identity. And the Ducks’ issues extend well beyond offensive play calling, which makes the decision to move on from Mehringer even more complicated.

Oregon’s only internal candidate with previous experience calling plays is assistant quarterbacks coach Jay Johnson, who will officially take over playcalling duties for the remainder of the season.

Lanning may have even bigger problems to address on the defensive side of the ball. Oregon gave up 225 rushing yards to an Illinois team starting freshman backup quarterback Michael Clayton II.

Last year’s coaching carousel saw DeShaun Foster, Brent Pry, Mike Gundy and Sam Pittman all dismissed before October. It’s apparent this trend will continue as programs feel the pressure to win now and appease those funding the entire operation.

Oregon is just one of several programs facing questions this season. As teams see their College Football Playoff hopes fade, keep an eye out for who has to bear the blame.

Two programs to watch: Michigan and Clemson. Michigan offensive coordinator Jason Beck’s offense ranks 130th nationally, while Clemson offensive coordinator Chad Morris faces questions of his own as the Tigers have thrown just two touchdown passes this season, the fewest in the FBS. Both teams have failed to live up to expectations this season, an unacceptable showing for programs trying to compete for a national championship.

One Name To Know …

Aidan Chiles, Northwestern

Aidan Chiles has completed 71% of his passes in his first year under center at Northwestern. (Photo by Adam Ruff/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

If you haven’t watched Northwestern’s offense this season, you’re missing out. 

No one in the sport is as creative as offensive coordinator Chip Kelly, and the wrinkles he forces defenses to deal with on a week-to-week basis creates headaches for opposing coordinators.

Take a look at this: Kelly installed the Wing-T against Penn State.

The following week, Kelly and the Wildcats broke out a CFL formation against Ball State.

The quarterback tasked with commanding this offense is senior Aidan Chiles, who has thrived in his first year as a Wildcat. Chiles’ journey is like many other QBs in today’s college game. He was a four-star prospect out of Downey High School and committed to Jonathan Smith and Oregon State. After playing sparingly in his freshman year, Chiles followed Smith to Michigan State. That chapter lasted two years and was filled with inconsistent play and an eventual benching, which led to Chiles searching for a new opportunity.

Northwestern head coach David Braun was in need of a quarterback following the graduation of Preston Stone. Chiles made the decision to transfer to Northwestern where he could compete for a starting job. He beat out Ryan Boe and West Virginia transfer Nicco Marichol in training camp to earn the role. 

That is where the similarities end. 

After transferring multiple times, most quarterbacks struggle to catch on and find the success they are seeking. Chiles, on the other hand, is thriving this season. Through seven games, he has accounted for 21 total touchdowns and has only thrown one interception.

Chiles has always possessed a strong arm with athleticism to be a threat in the run game. But when watching his film, what I’ve been impressed with is his improved ball placement and accuracy.  

In past years, Chiles has struggled with short, underneath routes, where ball placement is critical for yards after the catch. This year, he’s improved greatly there, adding nearly 2 yards per reception for Northwestern pass-catchers. His downfield accuracy has also been a remarkable improvement, completing 60% of those throws over 20-plus yards.

Chiles never completed better than 63% of his passes in his two seasons as a starter in East Lansing. This year, he’s completing 71% of his throws, only dipping below that mark in two games this season.

What has impressed me the most with Chiles this season is his ability to transition to a new offensive scheme that is very different from what he was running in the past. Operating under center and running the Wing-T one week, and then executing what appears to be a play out of a CFL playbook the following week is a stark transition, but Chiles has made it look easy. 

What won’t be easy is the upcoming schedule for Chiles and the Wildcats, but it offers an opportunity to prove any doubters wrong. Northwestern travels to Oregon this weekend, then hosts Iowa the first weekend of November before traveling to Ohio State and Minnesota in back-to-back weeks.

In a season that’s been full of surprises, maybe Kelly and Chiles have something else up their sleeve.

What I’m Watching …

  Ohio State at USC

A potential elimination game for both teams in their hunt for a Big Ten title and a College Football Playoff berth leaves more questions than answers. 

Ohio State returns to action after the bye week, but will have to do so without their starting quarterback, Julian Sayin. The assumption is true freshman QB Luke Fahey will get the nod, but how has he been able to surpass sophomore Tavien St. Clair?

St. Clair, a former five-star prospect, has spent more time in the program, and by all accounts, has the more physical gifts, yet Fahey has been the signal-caller Day has trusted when Sayin is out. 

Ohio State true freshman quarterback Luke Fahey was a four-star recruit. (Photo by Ben Jackson/Getty Images)

Fahey’s path to Ohio State has been unique. At one point, the former four-star recruit who played multiple sports, including lacrosse, was splitting reps at quarterback in high school until his senior year. In fact, it was current Ohio State sophomore wide receiver Phillip Bell who caught the attention of Ohio State’s staff, which led to them asking: “Who’s this guy throwing him the ball?”

Fahey, who stands at 5-foot-11, 206 pounds, has been applauded for his work ethic and command of the offense as a true freshman. This might shed some light on why Fahey has surpassed a player that appeared to be the next in line. 

There are still plenty of questions to be answered.

What will the offense look like with Fahey behind center? Will there be a package for St. Clair? How will Jeremiah Smith’s role and Heisman campaign be impacted? Can the run game carry Ohio State’s offense like it did during the team’s 2014 run to the national championship? 

Ohio State’s rushing offense currently ranks 73rd among FBS teams, but what’s more concerning to me is the lack of explosives. When it comes to runs over 20-plus yards, the Buckeyes rank 112th in the country. 

Another question: Why should this be considered a “potential elimination game” for an Ohio State team with only one loss? Simple. I don’t trust the College Football Playoff committee. Look back at 2023 when a 13-0 Florida State team won the ACC championship without its starting QB, Jordan Travis, who suffered a late-season injury. The Seminoles were left on the outside looking in. 

If the Buckeyes were to lose to USC – depending on how they look down the stretch – the CFP committee could potentially make a similar decision. 

Lincoln Riley’s team suffered another miserable loss to Wisconsin this past weekend. The Badgers appear closer to contending for a Big Ten title this season than Riley has throughout his entire tenure at USC. This USC team proved once again that it lacks physicality (lost the rushing battle by over 100 yards on the ground when you remove sacks), is undisciplined (six penalties, a blocked kick, a dropped kickoff and lost the turnover battle), and is incapable of stopping an offense that only mustered 200 total yards of offense.  

Lincoln Riley is 41-20 as the head coach at USC. (Photo by Ronaldo Bolaños/Los Angeles Times via Getty Images)

Does anyone believe Riley can actually lead this program to a conference title, let alone a CFP berth? 

I’ll save the talk about “buyout costs” for other national pundits, but it does beg the question: what is the price of winning and is USC willing to make that commitment? LSU did. Three losses won’t be good enough to make this year’s CFP. It likely will once the field expands to 24 teams, but will Riley survive to see that day? 

Here’s the beauty of college football: A win this week and the narrative changes, most likely securing Riley’s future for another year. USC is 26-6 at home under Riley, and this season in particular has seen a historic wave of ranked teams being upset on the road, 42 to be exact.

If this game does anything, it will at least provide some answers to many looming questions for both teams.

CFB Related Stories

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If the World Series ends on Tuesday night with the Milwaukee Brewers sweeping the Tampa Bay Rays? Kevin Burkhardt posed the question to Derek Jeter, Alex Rodriguez and David Ortiz ahead of Game 4, and while they all had different answers to the question, they eventually reached the same conclusion.

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Welcome to the Quarterback Notebook, where I’ll cover the past week in NFL quarterbacking — from the most interesting passers, plays and storylines to some other stuff that caught my eye while watching film this week.

This week, we’ll evaluate J.J. McCarthy’s first start for the Giants, figure out what’s behind Daniel Jones’ regression, and look at a defensive trend that’s giving (most) passers across the league fits. 

Let’s talk quarterbacks.

The 2024 first-round pick is certainly making the most of this opportunity to start for the Giants, but let’s throttle back the hot takes before we anoint McCarthy as the next Sam Darnold or tar and feather his former coach, Kevin O’Connell, for not getting more out of him.

Sunday’s game against the Texans was arguably the best of his career against a quality defense — so that 2025 game against the Cowboys defense doesn’t qualify — and it produced the most throwing highlights. McCarthy hit Malik Nabers with a perfectly placed back-shoulder ball on a fade route from the slot.

He lined up with Nabers again on a tight-window corner route.

He hit Malachi Fields on a sail route between two defenders.

Those are undoubtedly good throws, but they’re the kind of throws we’ve already seen McCarthy make in Minnesota.

McCarthy’s always been willing to make those highly difficult throws to the perimeter; whether he can do it consistently is another matter. McCarthy throws with enough velocity to pull them off, but it takes a lot of effort. Here he nearly throws himself out of his shoes trying to muscle a ball to the sideline.

Here’s another max-effort throw that ends up looking like a sinking fastball the catcher has to dig out.

When McCarthy consistently hits these deep perimeter throws, he looks like a starting-level quarterback. But these aren’t high-probability throws — not even for quarterbacks with elite arm talent. McCarthy had the lowest dropback success rate of any starter in Week 7, which illustrates how volatile a passing attack built around deep throws can be.

And McCarthy still doesn’t have other pitches to go to when he can’t connect. He lacks the precision to consistently work underneath and the touch to throw over the middle. McCarthy’s biggest issue, which the Vikings tried desperately to fix, is his desire to throw every ball as hard as he possibly can. This can make short passes harder to catch than they need to be.

If McCarthy can keep hitting deep, perimeter passes consistently, I’d expect this hot start to turn into a full-on breakout season. He’s off to a good start, hitting 8 of 13 attempts over 10 air yards and aimed outside the numbers, but it’ll take a much bigger sample to prove he can do it repeatedly.

I’ll buy into the redemption narrative if this continues, or if McCarthy shows he can stay effective when those deep throws aren’t connecting. 

With the Colts firing long-time general manager Chris Ballard and trading Quenton Nelson and DeForest Buckner for pennies on the dollar, Indianapolis could be in the middle of a deadline fire sale. If this team is waving the white flag on the 2026 season, I’ve got a suggestion: bench Daniel Jones and see what the young backups, Anthony Richardson and Riley Leonard, can do.

Head coach Shane Steichen says he’s not considering benching Jones after he threw away a winnable game against the Vikings on Sunday. His game-ending interception was his seventh of the season, and the performance dragged his QBR to 40.3, 31st in the league. That’s lower than his 2024 QBR, when the Giants cut him midseason.

The 2026 version of Jones looks a lot like the quarterback who flamed out in New York two seasons ago. And that’s why it’s probably a good time for Indianapolis to sit him. Jones doesn’t look fully healthy, which makes sense considering that he’s less than a year removed from tearing an Achilles. Watching Jones play in 2026 feels a lot like watching Kirk Cousins in Atlanta, when the veteran quarterback was coming off the same injury. He doesn’t look very mobile—which matters more for Jones than it did for Cousins—and looks uncomfortable when throwing on the move.

Daniel Jones has thrown more interceptions (7) than touchdowns (4) this year as he ranks in the bottom half of the league in several stats. (Photo by David Berding/Getty Images)

The numbers back that up, too. Jones is averaging 1.3 yards per attempt when throwing on the run, per Next Gen Stats. That’s not even a full Kyler Murray worth of yards! In 2025, he averaged 7.7 yards per throw on the move. His completion percentage has dropped from 73% in 2025 to 25% this season. His success rate has plummeted from 50% to 13%. Jones’ inability to complete passes on the move is the main difference between his performance this season and what the Colts saw in 2025. 

Last season, the passing game was built around Jones’ ability to move. The Colts used him on bootlegs and nakeds to move the pocket and simplify his reads. Those plays haven’t been nearly as effective in 2026, and it’s had a domino effect on the rest of the offense. Jones hasn’t been accurate downfield, and he’s not a quick processor who can carve up defenses with short passes. Jones has always needed an offense built around his skill set to succeed. I’m not sure that offense exists with Jones in his current form.

I doubt Richardson or Leonard would improve the Colts offense, but sitting Jones would protect him from further injury and prevent bad habits from forming and carrying over to next season. 

A PSA For All NFL QBs: Prepare For Double A-Gap Looks

It’s been 17 years since Jim Johnson’s death, but the former Eagles defensive coordinator’s influence is still felt across the league. Defensive coaches across the league are spamming his signature “double A-gap” fronts to put NFL quarterbacks in a mental blender. Even if you’re unfamiliar with the concept, you’ll recognize this defensive look if you’ve watched any games this season: two linebackers flank the center while the rest of the defensive line is spread outside of the guards.

Defensive coordinators have been throwing these looks at quarterbacks for over a quarter-century, but they’ve really ramped up their usage over the last few seasons. In 2025, we saw 684 dropbacks against the double A-gap looks, per Pro Football Focus; in 2026, we’re on pace for 928! That hasn’t been a fun development for quarterbacks, who are averaging -0.24 expected points added per play on those snaps. 

Most of those have come in obvious passing situations, when defensive play callers can get creative with blitzes and coverage disguises. Putting six dudes on the line of scrimmage forces the offense to adjust their protection. It also creates uneasiness for the quarterback, who has to be ready for an all-out blitz.

Defenses have sent an all-out blitz on just over 13% of their double A-gap snaps this season, but the offense still needs a solid protection plan just in case. They’ll often keep a running back in to block, which can also play into a defense’s hands when they drop out. It gives them one fewer receiver to cover.

These looks can really mess with a quarterback’s process if they don’t have trust in their protection. And defensive coordinators can sniff that out from a mile away. If they sense any vulnerability, they’ll crowd the line of scrimmage and date the offense to sort it all out. The Eagles have seen the most double A-gap looks this season with 24. The Colts are second (23), followed by the Packers and Buccaneers (22), with most of those coming against rookie Jalon Daniels.

You’re most likely to see these “mugged” looks against raw quarterbacks, but even some of the better quarterbacks have had issues against them this season. Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow, Trevor Lawrence, Brock Purdy, Drake Maye, and Josh Allen all have sub-80 passer ratings against double A-gap fronts, per PFF. Meanwhile, wily vets like Matthew Stafford and Aaron Rodgers have carved them up.

Jordan Love is my favorite quarterback to watch deal with these looks. His ability to make those fadeaways throws combined with his ambition as a downfield passer makes him a particularly fun watch.

Love’s also a quick processor—an underappreciated facet of his game—and Packers coach Matt LaFleur called him “the best I’ve been around in terms of protections and adjustments,” which also helps him face the pressure, real or imagined, created by the double-A gap looks. They test every aspect of playing quarterback.

That’s what made Caleb Williams’s crunch-time throw against the Patriots so impressive.

The Patriots, one of the league leaders in double A-gap snaps, crowded the line of scrimmage showing blitz. Williams made an adjustment to protection just in case New England sent the house, and when they didn’t, he kept his nerve in the pocket, read out the coverage, and found Rome Odunze in a small pocket of space downfield with a marvelous throw.

When a quarterback makes a play like that, the defensive coordinator just has to tip his hat and dare him to do it again. The best defensive coordinators will keep throwing these looks out there, waiting for a quarterback to slip up. 

The Buccaneers asked very little of Baker Mayfield in his return from a thumb injury. He attempted just three passes over 6 air yards, but he did hit a longer scramble-drill pass for a touchdown. That was enough to beat a Panthers team that played as if it had never practiced before. Atlanta’s defense should provide a better test for Mayfield.

Since I’ve already covered my actual pick for throw of the week—Williams hitting Odunze in crunch time against the Patriots—I’ll go with another one from the Bears quarterback. This fireball that moved the chains on a key third-and-11.

That ball traveled 29.6 yards in 1.1 seconds. It was a rocket and Williams gets style points for side-stepping the rush before firing it off, per Next Gen Stats.

I’m not sure what Jones was thinking when he let this pass go. Tight end Will Mallory is bracketed by two defenders and Harrison Smith is in perfect position to pick off the pass up the seam.

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The Los Angeles Rams will visit the Las Vegas Raiders on Sunday in a Week 7 NFL showdown on FOX.

Rams -4.5: -108

Raiders +4.5: -112

Over/Under

• Over 48.5: -118
• Under 48.5: -102

   Rams @ Raiders Prediction, Pick

From FOX Sports Research: 

• The Rams rank third in total offense (401.3 YPG) and lead the NFL in total yardage differential (+644), suggesting they’ve played better than their 2-4 record.
• Matthew Stafford has completed 74.7% of his passes for 605 yards, five touchdowns and no interceptions over his last two games.
• Las Vegas has allowed 36 points per game during its three-game losing streak, with just one takeaway after forcing nine during its 3-0 start.

   The Pick: Rams -5.5

How to Watch Raiders vs. Rams

• Date: Sunday, Oct. 25, 2026
• Time: 4:25 p.m. ET
• TV: FOX
• Stream: Watch 3 days free on FOX One, FOXSports.com, FOX Sports App
• Location: Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, NV

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The Tampa Bay Rays led 4-0 after one inning of Game 2 of the World Series and still lost. Now they head home down 0-2 to a Milwaukee Brewers team that keeps finding ways to come back.

The Brewers rallied for a 5-4 win Saturday night, and the FOX postgame crew said the result changed how they view the series. David Ortiz, who picked the Rays to win the title, said his concern started with this game.

“I’m gonna start worrying about Tampa,” Ortiz said. “Tampa has one of the best records once they take the lead in the game. Doesn’t matter if it’s at the beginning, in the middle of the game or towards the end, they couldn’t keep up that lead tonight. They had their ace on the mound [in Drew Rasmussen]. They couldn’t keep up with that either.”

Derek Jeter said the Rays’ only answer is to keep scoring. He pointed out that many people around baseball thought Game 2 was over when Tampa Bay scored four times in the first.

“They got to score, score, score, score, and score some more. No lead is safe,” Jeter said. “Milwaukee does not stop. So you’ve got to put some runs on the board, and no lead is safe.”

Game 3 shifts to Tropicana Field on Monday, and Jeter said the Rays’ home ballpark gives them an edge.

“Tropicana Field is tough to play, right? If you’re not used to it, there’s a reason why they play so well,” Jeter said. “I didn’t like going there. I didn’t see the ball well. Didn’t hit the ball well there. Takes some adjusting, so that’s their home field advantage.”

Tampa Bay Rays right fielder Jonny DeLuca went two for four with a double, but it wasn’t enough to power the Rays past the Milwaukee Brewers in Game 2 of the World Series. (Photo by John Fisher/Getty Images)

Alex Rodriguez called the loss a “huge blow” but said the Rays have the profile to handle it.

“If anyone can deal with it, it’s this Rays team,” Rodriguez said. “Nobody’s won more games over the last decade with less resources than the Rays, so they’re known to be underdogs, and they’re not going to give up. They’re tough and they’re gritty.”

Tampa Bay is expected to send Freddy Peralta to the mound in Game 3. 

Rodriguez noted that Peralta takes the ball on the field of the best record in the American League. The Rays acquired Peralta from the New York Mets at the trade deadline, and he was named ALCS MVP after going 2-0 with a 0.75 ERA against the Cleveland Guardians. 

The Brewers traded Peralta to the Mets in January, and FOX’s Kevin Burkhardt said Peralta has a chip on his shoulder against his former team.

Ortiz said the Rays still have things going for them, including their fans and Peralta, but he stressed the urgency.

“They also have Peralta, who has been pitching incredible during the playoffs,” Ortiz said. “They better put it together, and they’ve got to be ready to go, because the Brewers, they’re not playing games, man. They’re attacking.”

Rays manager Kevin Cash said the team will use the trip home to reset.

“I know our fans are going to be really loud and excited to see us come back,” Cash said. “We got a really good pitcher going, as do they. A lot of confidence in this club to respond. They’ve done it all season long, and they’ll continue to do it.”

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