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Who could have seen that coming?

Spain, the betting co-favorite to win the 2026 FIFA World Cup, opened its tournament with a scoreless draw against Cape Verde, which made its World Cup debut on Monday at Atlanta Stadium. Going into the match, Spain had -1500 odds to beat Cape Verde.

There have been stunning upsets in World Cup history, but where does Cape Verde’s result against Spain rank all-time? Here are the most shocking results — win, loss or draw — in World Cup history based on FIFA ranking, which was introduced in 1992.

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5. Spain 1, Russia 1 (2018)

Russia striker Artem Dzyuba celebrates his goal against Spain in 2018. (Clive Rose/Getty Images)

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Russia FIFA Rank: 70
Spain FIFA Rank: 10
Difference: 60 spots

The best moment in Russia’s World Cup history. Against a stacked Spain side that was on a 23-match unbeaten streak entering the Round of 16, the host nation knocked Spain out of the 2018 World Cup through a penalty shootout following a 1-1 draw.

Spain took the lead in the 12th minute off an own goal from Sergei Ignashevich, but Artem Dzyuba brought Russia level after converting his penalty kick just before the halftime break. With both sides unable to separate themselves from each other in regulation and extra time, it went to penalties, where Russian goalkeeper Igor Akinfeev became a national hero, famously saving penalties from Koke and Iago Aspas to send his country to the quarterfinals.

4. Cape Verde 0, Spain 0 (2026)

Cape Verde celebrates its impressive defensive performance against Spain. (Marvin Ibo Guengoer – GES Sportfoto/Getty Images)

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Cape Verde FIFA Rank: 67
Spain FIFA Rank: 2
Difference: 65 spots

What a way to make your tournament debut. Cape Verde, the second-smallest country in the tournament by population size (529,000), held Euro 2024 champions Spain to a scoreless draw in its first-ever World Cup match at Atlanta stadium.

Spain dominated possession in the first half with 70% to Cape Verde’s 30% but was unable to score. In an effort to break the deadlock, Spain coach Luis de la Fuente subbed on Lamine Yamal, but even the teenage superstar was unable to break the tie. Instead, the Man of the Match honors went to Cape Verde’s 40-year-old veteran goalkeeper Vozinha, who stopped all seven of Spain’s shots on target.

Spain vs Cape Verde Highlights | 2026 FIFA World Cup™

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3. South Africa 1, Mexico 1 (2010)

Siphiwe Tshabalala celebrates his memorable goal from the 2010 World Cup against Mexico. (Jamie Squire – FIFA/FIFA via Getty Images)

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South Africa FIFA Rank: 83
Mexico FIFA Rank: 17
Difference: 66 spots

South Africa marked the opening match of the first-ever World Cup on African soil with an unforgettable 1-1 draw against Mexico at Soccer City in Johannesburg.

Mexico dominated the first half and sent the host nation into the halftime break with a lot to figure out, and South Africa responded almost immediately with an absolute rocket of a goal from Siphiwe Tshabalala in the 55th minute. Mexico would still manage to play spoiler in the 79th minute, when an unmarked Rafael Márquez equalized for El Tri, but for South Africa, it was close to a dream start in a tough Group A with Mexico, France and Uruguay.

2. Italy 1, New Zealand 1 (2010)

New Zealand celebrates its goal against Italy from the 2010 World Cup in South Africa. (Ezra Shaw/Getty Images)

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New Zealand FIFA Rank: 78
Italy FIFA Rank: 5
Difference: 73 spots

This match between the defending world champions and a group of mostly semi-professional players didn’t go the way many people predicted, and certainly not the way Italy had hoped.

Italy, which lifted the World Cup trophy in 2006, needed a win against New Zealand to put itself in a comfortable position to advance after a shock 1-1 draw against Paraguay in its group stage opener, and it had every reason to believe it would get one against a New Zealand side that failed to stack up on paper. Instead, Italy was humiliated, conceding in the 7th minute of the match and failing to mount a comeback despite an aggressive attacking strategy from head coach Marco Lippi.

New Zealand would be eliminated from the tournament after managing just three points in two matches, but so too would Italy, and with the added shock value of finishing last in the group with two points. For the All Whites, history. For the Azzurri, a low point that they’ve been unable to rebound from since.

1. South Africa 2, France 1 (2010)

France was in crisis back in 2010(Cameron Spencer/Getty Images)

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South Africa FIFA Rank: 83
France FIFA Rank: 9
Difference: 74 spots

France’s nightmarish run at the 2010 World Cup hit rock bottom when tournament hosts South Africa pulled off arguably the greatest upset in World Cup history at Vodafone Park.

Arriving at its final group game amidst an internal mutiny against its manager, Raymond Domenech, Les Bleus finally imploded, allowing South Africa to take a 2-0 lead in the first half through Bongani Khumalo and Katlego Mphela and going down 10 men due to a straight red card that was shown to Yoann Gourcuff.

Though Florent Malouda pulled one back for France in the second half, Bafana Bafana held on for a historic victory, and France’s tumultuous 2006 World Cup was put to a merciful end.

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U.S. World Cup Team Training Base (IRVINE, Calif.) — Although U.S. men’s national team forward Christian Pulisic participated in a “modified training” session on Monday after leaving last week’s 2026 FIFA World Cup-opening win over Paraguay with a sore calf, midfielder Tyler Adams insisted that Pulisic “will be ready” for the Americans’ second Group B match against Australia on Friday in Seattle. 

After setting up the USA’s first two goals en route to a record-smashing 4-1 victory over the Paraguayans, Pulisic — the Stars and Stripes’ headliner and their most irreplaceable attacking player — was subbed out of the match at halftime with a sore left calf.

“We’re hopeful the next game he’ll be available,” coach Mauricio Pochettino said on Friday after the game.

Adams expects that he will. 

“Come on, Christian will be ready,” Adams said with a chuckle before the Americans trained as a group for the first time since last Friday’s triumph. “Everyone, let’s relax.”

Despite Pochettino’s revelation that Pulisic “could not walk when he finished the first half,” the 27-year-old AC Milan star wasn’t noticeably limping when he strode to a microphone to answer questions about 30 minutes following the final whistle.

The players who started against Paraguay, including Pulisic, went through a light “regeneration session” on Saturday before a team barbecue at the team’s swanky ocean-front hotel. Pulisic’s leg wasn’t taped in pictures of that event posted to social media. 

Yet when training began on Monday, Pulisic wasn’t on the field with the rest of the other 25 members of the USA’s squad. He was in the gym working out instead and did  individual work on the field later in the session here at Great Park. 

Pochettino told FOX Sports sideline reporter Jenny Taft that the Pennsylvania native was removed as a precaution from the opener, which the World Cup co-hosts were leading 3-0 at the time. The former Paris Saint-Germain manager gave his players Sunday off, allowing them to rest mentally as well as physically.

“He picked up a knock a few days before the game, and I think he got kicked in the same spot again during the game,” Adams said of Pulisic on Monday. “And when you go into halftime, things obviously get tight within the 15-20 minute break.

“He’ll be fine.”

United States vs Paraguay Extended Highlights | 2026 FIFA World Cup™

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“Bear Bets” are real wagers that Chris “The Bear” Fallica is actually making.

Who could’ve predicted Cape Verde forcing the draw with Spain in its World Cup debut? 

Matches like those are why we love (and wager on) the game.

Match Day 6 — let’s go!

This page may contain affiliate links to legal sports betting partners. If you sign up or place a wager, FOX Sports may be compensated. Read more about Sports Betting on FOX Sports.

World Cup Best Bets — Tuesday, June 16

France vs. Senegal 

Kylian Mbappé of France has had a drama-filled year (Getty Images).

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Which XI will Didier Deschamps go with? He’s got a ton of options, and I’m not sure the best option features Kylian Mbappé, who has had a drama-filled year both at the club and international level. Will Rayan Cherki feature? Hint: He should. There’s a lot of pressure on France here, as there are quite a few Senegalese with French ties. We saw Spain come out slowly on Monday, and I’m thinking France could suffer a similar fate Tuesday. 

Fallica’s Pick:   1st Half Draw (+140)

Iraq vs. Norway

Martin Ødegaard of Norway will try to lead his team to a decisive victory over Iraq (Getty Images).

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I can’t see Iraq doing much here, even with a questionable Norway defense, which will likely be tested against France and Senegal. This will ultimately be a practice game for Norway — a lot of shots, with a couple finding the net. 

Fallica’s Picks:   Norway Win to Nil (-140), Norway 2-0 Exact Score (+475), Norway Over 17.5 Shots (-155)

Argentina vs. Algeria 

Lionel Messi & Co. have the tenure necessary to get past Algeria easily (Getty Images).

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I don’t know how Algeria scores here. Argentina might be getting a tad long in the tooth, but that team is rock solid in the back and midfield, and that should mean few chances for Algeria, which has been a great story thus far in its home base of Lawrence, KS, endearing itself to everyone. 

Fallica’s Picks:   Under 2.5 Goals Scored (-120), Both Teams to Score — No (-165), Algeria Under 2.5 Corners (+125)

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So much for a supersized World Cup diluting the quality of soccer’s biggest tournament.

Tiny Cape Verde, making its debut at the World Cup, pulled off a stunning upset to shut out heavily favored Spain in a 0-0 draw on Monday.

“This means everything for our country,” said Cape Verde coach Pedro Leitão Brito. “We have always said that we wanted everybody to see our country, our team, and we have shown organization and braveness and this is proof of what our country is about — resilience and to try to overcome hardships.”

European champion Spain is one of the favorites to win the tournament and was -1200 to beat Cape Verde in its opening game. But they could not find a way past a 40-year-old goalkeeper and a stubborn defense that had an answer to everything Spain’s superstars threw at them.

Not even sensational teenager Lamine Yamal, who came in off the bench in the second half, could turn a game that ended with wild and emotional celebrations inside the stadium.

“A dream” was how Cape Verde defender Steven Moreira described it.

Veteran goalkeeper Vozinha broke down in tears after the final whistle following his impressive performance to keep Spain at bay.

He was the player of the match, pulling off a string of saves at the end of the first half to deny Ferran Torres, Pedri and Aymeric Laporte.

The closest Spain came to finding a breakthrough was when Torres struck the bar shortly before halftime.

“We should have won today’s match with everything that happened, with all the favorable situations we created, but we lacked freshness and a clinical edge,” said Spain coach Luis de la Fuente, who had warned before the match that Cape Verde could be one of the surprise teams of the World Cup.

Spain could have been the victim of an even bigger upset when Diney Borges had a late chance to win the game, but saw his header saved by Spain keeper Unai Simon.

Add Cape Verde to Cameroon, Senegal and Saudi Arabia on the list of teams that have pulled off shocking results against soccer’s giants in the World Cup.

Cameroon beat defending champion Argentina in 1990 and Senegal beat defending champion France in 2002. Four years ago, Saudi Arabia triumphed against Lionel Messi’s Argentina, which eventually went on to win the tournament in Qatar.

Cape Verde didn’t win, but its performance rebuked some of the criticisms that the expansion of the World Cup from 32 teams to 48 would weaken the tournament.

The group of islands have about 4,000 square meters (about 2.5 miles) of landmass and approximately half a million inhabitants, making Cape Verde the third-smallest nation by population to qualify for the World Cup. And even against a Spain team that is filled with superstar players, Cape Verde proved its worth on soccer’s biggest stage.

Despite the majority of the 67,640 crowd inside Atlanta Stadium appearing to be Spain fans, it was the Cape Verde supporters that cheered loudest. They continued their celebrations after the final whistle, singing and dancing in the concourse.

“All of us, we are happy because we work a lot to be here. We deserve to be here,” said Vozinha.

Cape Verde goalkeeper Vozinha denied eight shots on goal by Spain. (Photo by Rich von Biberstein/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

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The 2010 champion Spain is aiming to win the World Cup for a second time and is coming into the tournament after winning the Euros in 2024. But a disappointing start echoes its performances in recent World Cups when it has failed to advance beyond the Round of 16 in each of the last three editions.

“What doubts do you think my team is going to have? Zero doubts,” said De la Fuente. “We know how difficult this competition is. The idea we need to follow is what took us here and what made us European champions.”

Spain plays Saudi Arabia on Sunday and Cape Verde faces Uruguay.

Reporting by The Associated Press.

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Cape Verde delivered the biggest shock of the World Cup thus far after its draw against Spain in Atlanta on Monday. I’ve given my kudos to Cape Verde (an archipelago nation off the coast of Africa making its tournament debut), but now let’s focus on La Roja and what’s now at stake after this historically disappointing result from Luis de la Fuente’s team. 

Spain came out sputtering. (Photo by Maddie Meyer – FIFA/FIFA via Getty Images)

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Spain’s draw now means that in order to top the group, its margin for error has practically been brought to zero. This group features two other stout squads – Uruguay will take on Saudi Arabia to conclude the first matchday of Group H – but trust me when I tell you that De La Fuente will want nothing less than two victories for their remaining fixtures in the group stage. 

Spain knows that topping the group is extremely important in order to avoid a major, giant obstacle in the knockout stages and Monday’s result gets in the way of this objective. Because any other setbacks could set up an earlier-than-expected date with a very familiar face. 

If Spain doesn’t finish first in its group, it could set up an early clash against Lionel Messi and Argentina. (Photo by Facundo Morales/NurPhoto via Getty Images)

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If Spain ends up as runner-up, then it has the possibility of facing Lionel Messi Argentina in the Round of 32 (if La Albiceleste tops Group J) and that’s far from ideal. Now, there’s a reminder here that Argentina itself lost the opening match of the World Cup back in 2022, which was coincidentally against Saudi Arabia (Spain’s upcoming opponent, and we all know how that ended.) In addition, back in 2010, when Spain won its first World Cup, it actually lost the first match, a 1-0 loss to Switzerland, and after that, it won every game, which concluded the journey with the trophy.

Lamine Yamal’s World Cup debut was dampened by the stalemate vs. Cape Verde. (Photo by Andrew J. Clark/ISI Photos/ISI Photos via Getty Images)

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All is not lost, therefore. But Spain knows it has to do better, both in strategy and mentality. It was a passive performance where patience was confused with stagnation. Too many players, from Ferran Torres to Mikel Oyarzabal, were not clinical enough. I also thought the substitutions came too late against Cape Verde so De La Fuente too needs to be more aggressive with his management. If all the eggs are placed in Lamine Yamal’s basket, then Spain will continue to fail. It has to believe in the collective. 

As mentioned, Spain faces Saudi Arabia on Sunday, before ending the group action against Uruguay next Friday. And I am not sure if a desperate battle against a team managed by Marcelo Bielsa – whose well-earned El Loco nickname comes from his high-pressure style of tactics – is what Spain wants. There’s a lot to do for Spain and there is no doubt it can do it. It is, after all, a magnificent team. 

But talent is not the question here. This is about application. 

Spain vs Cape Verde Extended Highlights | 2026 FIFA World Cup™

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Brazil are facing the prospect of navigating the entire World Cup group stage without Neymar as the medical staff prioritizes his long-term fitness. The Seleção talisman is battling to recover from a significant muscle injury, with coaching staff now focusing on a return for the knockout rounds.

Caution Remains The Priority For Seleção

Brazil’s medical department and coaching staff have reached a consensus regarding Neymar’s involvement in the opening phase of the World Cup: caution is the only way forward.

Despite the clamour for the superstar to return to the starting line-up, there is currently no indication that he will be risked in the upcoming clash against Haiti in Philadelphia.

As per ESPN, Brazil are determined to avoid a setback that could end his tournament prematurely. Neymar has not trained under Carlo Ancelotti since arriving at Granja Comary on May 27, and the order from the backroom staff is to ensure he does not suffer a regression by returning to intensive drills too soon.

Recovery Timeline For Calf Injury

Neymar is currently working his way back from a grade-two calf problem which he sustained while playing for Santos on May 17. While he increased his workload in the gym recently – a positive sign of evolution in his recovery – he remains far from match fitness and has yet to reintegrate with his team-mates on the grass.

The plan is for the 32-year-old to step onto the pitch this week for individual work, but he will only be cleared for full team sessions once the medical staff are certain he is pain-free.

Given that he has not played a competitive match in over a month, his lack of rhythm is a major factor in the decision-making process.

Plans For The Knockout Stages

Internally, Brazil are now working towards a schedule that would see Neymar fit for the World Cup knockout stages. This strategy effectively rules him out of the clash against Haiti and makes him a major doubt for the final group match against Scotland in Miami on June 24.

This conservative approach will only be maintained if the Seleção results allow for such luxury on the pitch.

Ancelotti is keen to have his best player available but refuses to compromise the player’s health. The Italian recently explained his decision to keep the injured star in the squad, stating: “Neymar is working very hard to recover as quickly as possible. When we called up Neymar, we did it not just because of his technical quality, which is undeniable. But also because of his experience, the example he could represent for the younger players on the team.”

A Final Assessment Looms

The medical team have not ruled out conducting fresh imaging tests in the coming days to verify if the intensive treatment has successfully healed the calf muscle. These results will dictate whether Neymar can accelerate his transition to the field or if he must continue his lonely rehabilitation in the gym.

Ultimately, Brazil are weighing short-term caution against long-term gain. With or without their all-time leading scorer, the Seleção must secure their path to the round of 32, where they hope a fully rested and recovered Neymar will be ready to lead their charge for a sixth world title.

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Belgium’s golden generation might have ended in 2022, but a younger squad opened its World Cup the way it has opened most things lately: with more questions than answers. Egypt — organized, patient, entirely unfazed by the badge it was facing — held one of Europe’s more talented squads to a 1-1 draw in Seattle on Monday.

Emam Ashour put the Pharaohs ahead in the 19th minute. Belgium, which lined up without a recognized striker, spent an hour passing the ball to death without ever threatening to score one. Then Rudi Garcia went for one of the lasting remnants of the past golden generation, and that man shocked audiences with his first touch.

Here are my takeaways from Belgium and Egypt’s opening draw:

1. Belgium Needs a Healthy Lukaku — Desperately

(Photo by Dale MacMillan/Soccrates/Getty Images)

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Belgium started this World Cup match without a striker. 

Garcia deployed Charles De Ketelaere, usually a second striker or attacking midfielder, as a false nine in front of an attacking midfield three built on flair: Jérémy Doku, Kevin De Bruyne, Leandro Trossard. It produced some decent football but virtually no penalty-box menace. Egypt’s block sat there and dared Belgium to find a center forward. Belgium couldn’t muster a single shot on target during the entire first half.

Enter Romelu Lukaku. Within seconds, a Youri Tielemans pass sprang Thomas Meunier down the right. Lukaku’s run through the middle was perfectly timed as the low cross was fed right into the path of the veteran striker.

That sequence is Belgium’s entire striker situation in a nutshell. Lukaku is 33. He has played about an hour of competitive football all season after a high-grade thigh tear, surgery and a parade of setbacks at Napoli — a saga ugly enough that he spent half the year rehabbing in Belgium against his club’s wishes. And he is still, comfortably, the most important No. 9 this team has. Belgium’s all-time leading scorer, and it isn’t close.

The question for Garcia was never whether Lukaku belongs. It depends on whether his body allows him to be the player this squad is designed around.

2. The Gap At The Top Keeps Shrinking

(Photo by Sarah Stier – FIFA/FIFA via Getty Images)

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Egypt didn’t park ten men and pray. Hossam Hassan’s side defended with shape, broke with intent and, for long spells, looked like the team with the clearer idea of what it was doing. Mohamed Salah and Omar Marmoush were deployed to stretch Belgium’s back line all night. This was not a smash-and-grab. 

And it fits the pattern of these opening days. Canada took its first men’s World Cup point off Bosnia. Cape Verde somehow held Spain to a 0-0 draw. Japan produced a highly entertaining 2-2 result against the Netherlands. The teams that were supposed to make up the numbers in a bloated 48-side field have been landing clean punches on the establishment.

Egypt went winless in Russia in 2018. This cycle it conceded two goals in 10 qualifiers. On Monday, it walked off the pitch proudly with a point against the ninth placed side in the FIFA rankings. Pedigree still wins most of these games, but be thankful for the surprises that keep some of these games highly unpredictable.

3. Egypt Is Built To Be A Problem

(Photo by Dale MacMillan/Soccrates/Getty Images)

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Two goals allowed in ten qualifying matches is not a rounding error. It’s an identity.

Hassan has built a side around defensive discipline and two attackers who can punish a single lapse. Salah — who turned 34 on Monday, and is fresh off a quieter final season at Liverpool — is still feared by defenders. Marmoush, now at Manchester City, offers a second runner who threatens in behind the moment a center back steps too high. Ashour’s opener came from exactly the kind of organized, low-risk football this team will live on.

The draw has been kind to the Pharaohs, too. They drew the toughest fixture first and came away with a point. Iran and New Zealand are next, and Egypt will fancy itself in both. Second place in Group G is very much on the table — and a Round-of-32 date that could fall against the United States is the sort of thing that makes a federation dream.

4. What Is The Ceiling For Belgium?

We have been writing this group’s obituary since 2018, and it keeps refusing to die quietly. De Bruyne is 34. Courtois is 34. Lukaku is 33 and held together with tape. The trophy cabinet is empty. Qatar 2022 ended in a group-stage exit and a dressing room reportedly at war with itself. The brief in 2026 was simple: don’t do that again.

A point against a well-drilled Egypt is not that. But in a draw, Garcia’s headline idea — De Bruyne conducting behind a striker-less front three — generated barely any threat. It’s the kind of result that should keep a coach up at night. Talent has never been the issue with Belgium. The coherence has.

Iran comes next in Los Angeles, then New Zealand in Vancouver. Both are winnable. Both are also precisely the sort of stubborn, well-organized opponent that just gave Belgium 90 minutes of frustration while wearing a different shirt. Garcia has a week to decide how much he trusts Lukaku’s body — because for an hour on Monday, the alternative looked like nothing at all.

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So much for a supersized World Cup diluting the quality of soccer’s biggest tournament.

Cape Verde, making its debut at the World Cup, pulled off a stunning upset to shut out heavily favored Spain in a 0-0 draw on Monday.

“This means everything for our country,” Cape Verde coach Pedro Leitão Brito said. “We have always said that we wanted everybody to see our country, our team and we have shown organization and braveness and this is proof of what our country is about — resilience and to try to overcome hardships.”

European champion Spain entered the World Cup as one of the favorites to win the tournament, listed at +450, along with Spain. Now, after the draw, Spain has dropped to +500. 

Not even 18-year-old sensation Lamine Yamal, who was the No. 1-ranked player in our Top 100 Players in the FIFA World Cup ranking, could turn a game that ended with wild and emotional celebrations from Cape Verde players and fans inside the stadium.

Veteran goalkeeper Vozinha broke down in tears after the final whistle following his impressive performance to keep Spain at bay.

“Heroic effort from this Cape Verde team,” FOX Sports lead soccer analyst Stu Holden said on the broadcast as members of Cape Verde embraced the 40-year-old Vozinha. “They’ve made themselves proud.”

Here are some numbers to put the stunning 0-0 draw between Spain and Cape Verde into perspective:

• The result marked one of the biggest upsets in World Cup history by FIFA rankings, representing the fourth-largest ranking gap ever in a match where the lower-ranked team avoided defeat.

• Spain entered the World Cup on a 30-game unbeaten streak, while this was Cape Verde’s World Cup debut, making it the third-smallest country ever to qualify in terms of population.

• Cape Verde’s population is 82 times smaller than Spain.

• Spain forward Lamine Yamal has a transfer value of €200M (approximately $232.1M). All 26 players of Cape Verde’s national team have a COMBINED transfer value of €54.4M (approximately $63.1M).

• Yamal and Norway forward Eling Haaland (€200M, approximately $232.1M) have nearly four times the value of Cape Verde’s entire team.

• Spain was ranked second in the FIFA world rankings heading into the matchup, while Cape Verde was ranked 67th. The 65-place difference is the ninth-biggest gap in world rankings in a World Cup matchup.

• Cape Verde is now one of just three debutant nations since 2010 to earn points in its opening match of the World Cup.

The 2010 champion Spain is aiming to win the World Cup for a second time and is coming into the tournament after winning the Euros in 2024. But a disappointing start echoes its performances in recent World Cups when it has failed to advance beyond the round of 16 in each of the last three editions.

“What doubts do you think my team is going to have? Zero doubts,” said Spain coach Luis de la Fuente, who had warned before the match that Cape Verde could be one of the surprise teams of the World Cup. “We know how difficult this competition is. The idea we need to follow is what took us here and what made us European champions.”

Spain plays Saudi Arabia on Sunday and Cape Verde faces Uruguay.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

Spain vs Cape Verde Extended Highlights

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World Cup odds are drawing massive action over the first few days of the tournament. Sportsbooks across the nation — and around the world, to be sure — are taking boatloads of bets.

That included the public betting masses piling on tournament favorite Spain for its opener against seemingly way over-matched Cape Verde. 

Monday’s shocking tie was a boon for sportsbooks, a bust for bettors and a little of both for high-net-worth prediction market traders.

Read on for more on that outcome, along with big Brazil bets, the USA’s rout of Paraguay and other interesting wagers in World Cup markets.

This page may contain affiliate links to legal sports betting partners. If you sign up or place a wager, FOX Sports may be compensated. Read more about Sports Betting on FOX Sports.

Pain In Spain, Part Uno: Sportsbooks

Ahead of Monday’s first World Cup match, Caesars Sports had three-way moneyline odds of Spain -1450/Cape Verde +2400/Draw +1000. That meant it took a $1,450 bet on Spain to win $100.

But there was no shortage of Spain backers and very little support for big ‘dog Cape Verde or Draw. Even during the match, the odds for Draw got as high as +2500.

So when the match stunningly ended in a 0-0 tie, Caesars and surely many other operators, netted a substantial win.

“This was a significant result for the trading floor, with Spain heavily backed by bettors across both straight bets and parlays,” Caesars head of soccer trading Mark Bickerdike said. “A remarkable result for Cape Verde in its first-ever World Cup match and one that could have significant implications for Group H and the tournament as a whole.”

Hard Rock Bet noted that 78% of money wagered on the match lost. Spain was in a ton of parlays, seen as ostensibly a free Bingo space. Hard Rock termed parlay damage as “enormous.”

But there were customers who took fliers on Draw. Better still, a DraftKings Sportsbook bettor made two incredibly prescient plays:

• $100 on a 0-0 Draw +4000
• $100 on no goalscorer at +3000

That customer walked away with $7,000 profit in about two hours’ time.

Pain In Spain, Part Dos: Prediction Markets

Prior to Monday’s match, Polymarket gave Spain a 92% chance of beating Cape Verde. That translates to odds of -1150. The Spanish side was thought to be a lead-pipe cinch to not only win but to win easily.

Somehow, not only did Spain fail to win, but it also failed to put up even a single goal. The 0-0 draw was an absolutely earth-shaking result.

And a seismic loss for a Polymarket customer. The trader put nearly $1 million on Spain to win the match — $999,068, to be exact.

Had Spain won, the trader would’ve profited just shy of $87,000, with a total payout of $1,085,943.

Instead, the trader ostensibly lost a million bucks.

On the flip side, a Polymarket customer traded $427,952 on Spain not to win the match, meaning either a draw or Cape Verde upset. The price on that trade: 9%, which equates to about +1000 odds.

So that trader made out huge, profiting nearly $4.3 million (total payout $4.7 million).

Banking on Brazil

One of the interesting elements of betting on soccer is that the three-way moneyline is more prevalent. As alluded to above, it involves betting on one of the teams to win, or the match to end in a draw in 90 minutes plus injury time.

There is no overtime in group play, and even in the knockout stages, 90 minutes plus injury time doesn’t include overtime. Just something to be mindful of as you make your wagers.

On Friday, Brazil was a -160 favorite, while Morocco was a healthy +400 underdog, and the Draw was +260. At Hard Rock Bet, a customer put $50,000 on Brazil -160 to win the match.

But 21 minutes in, underdog Morocco struck first on an Ismael Saibari goal to go up 1-0. Brazil countered on Vinícius Júnior’s goal in the 32nd minute.

That was it, though. No more scoring the rest of the way, making a winner of those who bet on Draw.

And a loser of that $50,000 bettor.

On the positive side, a Kalshi prediction markets customer made bank on the match. The trader put a whopping $400,000 on Brazil to not win — meaning the match ends in a tie or Brazil loss — at a price of 40%, which correlates to +150 odds.

With Morocco forging an unexpected draw, the customer banked a profit of $600,000, for a total payout of $1 million.

Hard Rock also took a big futures play on Brazil: $250,000 at +800 to win the World Cup. If the Brazilians go the distance, then the bettor collects $2 million profit (total payout $2.25 million).

USA’s Big Day vs. Paraguay

The USA got off to a rousing start, as did bettors who backed it in World Cup odds. Folarin Balogun had two first-half goals, as the Americans rolled to a 4-1 victory over Paraguay.

No sportsbooks reported much in the way of big bets on the U.S., but there was a ton of small stuff from the public betting masses, and sportsbooks got beat up on the USA’s rout.

“It was a very good day for USA backers,” BetMGM trading manager Seamus Magee said.

Among those backers, a Hard Rock customer with a patriotic play: $1,776 on USA even money (+100) to win the match.

That wager easily cashed for $1,776 profit (total payout $3,552).

As with the Spain and Brazil matches, the really big money landed in prediction markets. In particular, Polymarket saw two monster trades fading the USA, which proved a perilous strategy.

One trader put $589,380 on the U.S. to not win — to either lose or tie — vs. Paraguay. Another trader put $505,814 on Paraguay to pull the upset. Both trades went down in flames as the USA rolled to victory.

At Caesars Sports, a bettor nearly pulled off a half-million-dollar long-shot win. The customer wagered $1,655 on USA +30000 (300/1) to win by an exact score of 5-1.

The USMNT came up just short. One more U.S. score, and the bettor would’ve cleared $496,500 profit.

Upset Special

Australia landed a notable early upset in World Cup odds. On Saturday night, the Aussies were in the range of +400 to +500 underdogs vs. Turkey.

Not exactly Spain-Cape Verde Draw odds, but still noteworthy.

Surprisingly, Australia netted a goal in each half and kept the Turks scoreless in a 2-0 victory. Hard Rock Bet didn’t see a ton of action on the match, but a couple bettors turned a respectable profit.

One customer put $2,097 on Australia +425 to profit $8,912.25 (total payout $11,009.25). Another got a better price on the Aussies at +500, with a $1,500 bet profiting $7,500 (total payout $9,000).

Here’s Hoping You Had It

You don’t have to wager four, five or six figures to get yourself a nice win. For all us normies, just getting 10 bucks down at, say, 10/1 or 15/1 makes for a great day.

Such was the case if you got on this World Cup prop bet at FanDuel Sportsbook: Folarin Balogun +1400 to score two or more goals vs. Paraguay.

As noted above, Balogun had a big night for the USMNT on Friday. He scored in the 31st minute and again in first-half stoppage time, staking the U.S. to a 3-0 halftime lead en route to that 4-1 victory.

So that prop was a no-sweat winner. If you put a tenner on it, then that turned into $140 profit. If you got frisky and put $100 down, then you nabbed a nifty $1,400 profit.

And the wait on that win was less than an hour. That’s excellent ROI.

Landon Donovan, renowned for his days with Team USA and now a FOX Sports soccer analyst, made a pregame recommendation for a four-leg parlay at FanDuel. And it hit:

• USA moneyline
• Both teams to score
• Over 2.5 total goals
• Christian Pulisic to score or assist

That was a relatively low-sweat parlay bet. At +525, $10 turned into $52.50 profit.

I Like Big Bets and I Cannot Lie

There are countless more notable bets on World Cup odds, whether on matches or in futures markets. One of the more interesting ones from the weekend was a bet-a-lot-to-win-a-little wager.

In Sunday’s Germany-Curaçao match, the German side was a monstrous -3500 favorite. That meant it took a $3,500 bet to profit just $100.

A Caesars Sports customer went in with far more than that, wagering $125,000 on Germany to win.

The big favorite promptly went out and took a 1-0 lead on Felix Nmecha’s goal in the sixth minute. But things briefly got a little interesting when Curaçao tied it in the 21st minute on Livano Comenencia’s goal.

Weird things can and do happen at the World Cup — as evidenced by that Spain-Cape Verde outcome. But in this instance, there was no weirdness there. Germany went on to add six more goals in a 7-1 blowout.

So the bettor netted all of $3,571 profit (total payout $128,571).

Other noteworthy World Cup wagers, all at Caesars Sports:

• $100,000 Mexico -1000 win or draw vs. South Africa (Caesars). Another unique way to bet, with both win and draw being winners. Mexico won 2-0, and the bettor netted $10,000 profit (total payout $110,000).
• $30,000 Portugal +800 to win the World Cup (Caesars). If Cristiano Ronaldo & Co. go the distance, the bettor profits $240,000 (total payout $270,000).
• $10,000 Portugal +800 to win the World Cup (Caesars). That bet nets $80,000 profit if Portugal lifts the trophy (total payout $90,000).

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With 48 teams competing and a grueling path through the knockout stage, reaching the semifinals of the 2026 FIFA World Cup will be an accomplishment in itself.

Only four nations will survive the tournament’s first 100 matches and earn a spot in the final four, putting themselves within two victories of lifting the most coveted trophy in sports.

So after the first 13 days of the tournament, which countries are favored to make a deep run this summer?

Let’s take a look at the latest odds to reach the semifinals at FanDuel Sportsbook as of June 23.

This page may contain affiliate links to legal sports betting partners. If you sign up or place a wager, FOX Sports may be compensated. Read more about Sports Betting on FOX Sports.

To Reach Semifinals

Argentina: +110 (bet $10 to win $21 total)
Spain: +110 (bet $10 to win $21 total)
France: +120 (bet $10 to win $22 total)
England: +155 (bet $10 to win $25.50 total)
Portugal: +195 (bet $10 to win $29.50 total)
Germany: +310 (bet $10 to win $41 total)
Brazil: +310 (bet $10 to win $41 total)
Netherlands: +390 (bet $10 to win $49 total)
USA: +460 (bet $10 to win $56 total)
Norway: +550 (bet $10 to win $65 total)
Colombia: +650 (bet $10 to win $75 total)
Belgium: +700 (bet $10 to win $80 total)
Morocco: +700 (bet $10 to win $80 total)
Mexico: +850 (bet $10 to win $95 total)
Japan: +850 (bet $10 to win $95 total)
Switzerland: +1000 (bet $10 to win $110 total)
Croatia: +1200 (bet $10 to win $130 total)
Austria: +1600 (bet $10 to win $170 total)
Senegal: +1700 (bet $10 to win $180 total)
Canada: +1800 (bet $10 to win $190 total)

Here’s what to know about this oddsboard:

The Top 7: Spain, France, Portugal, England, Argentina, Brazil and Germany stand at the top of the board, with each nation listed at +310 or better to reach the semifinals. Combined, the group has 39 World Cup semifinal appearances and includes six former champions, highlighting why oddsmakers view them as the clear favorites to make the final four in 2026. While France was the favorite in this market for much of the tournament, Argentina has just overtaken Les Bleus after clinching Group J. 

At the 2022 World Cup, Morocco became the first African nation ever to reach the semifinals (Getty Images). 

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Recent History: Morocco authored one of the most remarkable underdog runs in World Cup history in 2022. Entering the tournament at 200-1 odds to win the title, Morocco became the first African nation ever to reach the semifinals before eventually falling to France. Prior to the tournament, the Atlas Lions were listed at 50-1 to reach the semifinals, rewarding bettors with a massive payout in this market. Can Morocco strike gold again this summer? Its odds have climbed from +1000 to +700 to reach the semis again after its competitive opening draw against Brazil and a win over Scotland.

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