World Cup odds are drawing massive action over the first few days of the tournament. Sportsbooks across the nation — and around the world, to be sure — are taking boatloads of bets.
That included the public betting masses piling on tournament favorite Spain for its opener against seemingly way over-matched Cape Verde.
Monday’s shocking tie was a boon for sportsbooks, a bust for bettors and a little of both for high-net-worth prediction market traders.
Read on for more on that outcome, along with big Brazil bets, the USA’s rout of Paraguay and other interesting wagers in World Cup markets.
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Pain In Spain, Part Uno: Sportsbooks
Ahead of Monday’s first World Cup match, Caesars Sports had three-way moneyline odds of Spain -1450/Cape Verde +2400/Draw +1000. That meant it took a $1,450 bet on Spain to win $100.
But there was no shortage of Spain backers and very little support for big ‘dog Cape Verde or Draw. Even during the match, the odds for Draw got as high as +2500.
So when the match stunningly ended in a 0-0 tie, Caesars and surely many other operators, netted a substantial win.
“This was a significant result for the trading floor, with Spain heavily backed by bettors across both straight bets and parlays,” Caesars head of soccer trading Mark Bickerdike said. “A remarkable result for Cape Verde in its first-ever World Cup match and one that could have significant implications for Group H and the tournament as a whole.”
Hard Rock Bet noted that 78% of money wagered on the match lost. Spain was in a ton of parlays, seen as ostensibly a free Bingo space. Hard Rock termed parlay damage as “enormous.”
But there were customers who took fliers on Draw. Better still, a DraftKings Sportsbook bettor made two incredibly prescient plays:
- $100 on a 0-0 Draw +4000
- $100 on no goalscorer at +3000
That customer walked away with $7,000 profit in about two hours’ time.
Pain In Spain, Part Dos: Prediction Markets
Prior to Monday’s match, Polymarket gave Spain a 92% chance of beating Cape Verde. That translates to odds of -1150. The Spanish side was thought to be a lead-pipe cinch to not only win but to win easily.
Somehow, not only did Spain fail to win, but it also failed to put up even a single goal. The 0-0 draw was an absolutely earth-shaking result.
And a seismic loss for a Polymarket customer. The trader put nearly $1 million on Spain to win the match — $999,068, to be exact.
Had Spain won, the trader would’ve profited just shy of $87,000, with a total payout of $1,085,943.
Instead, the trader ostensibly lost a million bucks.
On the flip side, a Polymarket customer traded $427,952 on Spain not to win the match, meaning either a draw or Cape Verde upset. The price on that trade: 9%, which equates to about +1000 odds.
So that trader made out huge, profiting nearly $4.3 million (total payout $4.7 million).
Banking on Brazil
One of the interesting elements of betting on soccer is that the three-way moneyline is more prevalent. As alluded to above, it involves betting on one of the teams to win, or the match to end in a draw in 90 minutes plus injury time.
There is no overtime in group play, and even in the knockout stages, 90 minutes plus injury time doesn’t include overtime. Just something to be mindful of as you make your wagers.
On Friday, Brazil was a -160 favorite, while Morocco was a healthy +400 underdog, and the Draw was +260. At Hard Rock Bet, a customer put $50,000 on Brazil -160 to win the match.
But 21 minutes in, underdog Morocco struck first on an Ismael Saibari goal to go up 1-0. Brazil countered on Vinícius Júnior’s goal in the 32nd minute.
That was it, though. No more scoring the rest of the way, making a winner of those who bet on Draw.
And a loser of that $50,000 bettor.
On the positive side, a Kalshi prediction markets customer made bank on the match. The trader put a whopping $400,000 on Brazil to not win — meaning the match ends in a tie or Brazil loss — at a price of 40%, which correlates to +150 odds.
With Morocco forging an unexpected draw, the customer banked a profit of $600,000, for a total payout of $1 million.
Hard Rock also took a big futures play on Brazil: $250,000 at +800 to win the World Cup. If the Brazilians go the distance, then the bettor collects $2 million profit (total payout $2.25 million).
USA’s Big Day vs. Paraguay
The USA got off to a rousing start, as did bettors who backed it in World Cup odds. Folarin Balogun had two first-half goals, as the Americans rolled to a 4-1 victory over Paraguay.
No sportsbooks reported much in the way of big bets on the U.S., but there was a ton of small stuff from the public betting masses, and sportsbooks got beat up on the USA’s rout.
“It was a very good day for USA backers,” BetMGM trading manager Seamus Magee said.
Among those backers, a Hard Rock customer with a patriotic play: $1,776 on USA even money (+100) to win the match.
That wager easily cashed for $1,776 profit (total payout $3,552).
As with the Spain and Brazil matches, the really big money landed in prediction markets. In particular, Polymarket saw two monster trades fading the USA, which proved a perilous strategy.
One trader put $589,380 on the U.S. to not win — to either lose or tie — vs. Paraguay. Another trader put $505,814 on Paraguay to pull the upset. Both trades went down in flames as the USA rolled to victory.
At Caesars Sports, a bettor nearly pulled off a half-million-dollar long-shot win. The customer wagered $1,655 on USA +30000 (300/1) to win by an exact score of 5-1.
The USMNT came up just short. One more U.S. score, and the bettor would’ve cleared $496,500 profit.
Upset Special
Australia landed a notable early upset in World Cup odds. On Saturday night, the Aussies were in the range of +400 to +500 underdogs vs. Turkey.
Not exactly Spain-Cape Verde Draw odds, but still noteworthy.
Surprisingly, Australia netted a goal in each half and kept the Turks scoreless in a 2-0 victory. Hard Rock Bet didn’t see a ton of action on the match, but a couple bettors turned a respectable profit.
One customer put $2,097 on Australia +425 to profit $8,912.25 (total payout $11,009.25). Another got a better price on the Aussies at +500, with a $1,500 bet profiting $7,500 (total payout $9,000).
Here’s Hoping You Had It
You don’t have to wager four, five or six figures to get yourself a nice win. For all us normies, just getting 10 bucks down at, say, 10/1 or 15/1 makes for a great day.
Such was the case if you got on this World Cup prop bet at FanDuel Sportsbook: Folarin Balogun +1400 to score two or more goals vs. Paraguay.
As noted above, Balogun had a big night for the USMNT on Friday. He scored in the 31st minute and again in first-half stoppage time, staking the U.S. to a 3-0 halftime lead en route to that 4-1 victory.
So that prop was a no-sweat winner. If you put a tenner on it, then that turned into $140 profit. If you got frisky and put $100 down, then you nabbed a nifty $1,400 profit.
And the wait on that win was less than an hour. That’s excellent ROI.
Landon Donovan, renowned for his days with Team USA and now a FOX Sports soccer analyst, made a pregame recommendation for a four-leg parlay at FanDuel. And it hit:
- USA moneyline
- Both teams to score
- Over 2.5 total goals
- Christian Pulisic to score or assist
That was a relatively low-sweat parlay bet. At +525, $10 turned into $52.50 profit.
I Like Big Bets and I Cannot Lie
There are countless more notable bets on World Cup odds, whether on matches or in futures markets. One of the more interesting ones from the weekend was a bet-a-lot-to-win-a-little wager.
In Sunday’s Germany-Curaçao match, the German side was a monstrous -3500 favorite. That meant it took a $3,500 bet to profit just $100.
A Caesars Sports customer went in with far more than that, wagering $125,000 on Germany to win.
The big favorite promptly went out and took a 1-0 lead on Felix Nmecha’s goal in the sixth minute. But things briefly got a little interesting when Curaçao tied it in the 21st minute on Livano Comenencia’s goal.
Weird things can and do happen at the World Cup — as evidenced by that Spain-Cape Verde outcome. But in this instance, there was no weirdness there. Germany went on to add six more goals in a 7-1 blowout.
So the bettor netted all of $3,571 profit (total payout $128,571).
Other noteworthy World Cup wagers, all at Caesars Sports:
- $100,000 Mexico -1000 win or draw vs. South Africa (Caesars). Another unique way to bet, with both win and draw being winners. Mexico won 2-0, and the bettor netted $10,000 profit (total payout $110,000).
- $30,000 Portugal +800 to win the World Cup (Caesars). If Cristiano Ronaldo & Co. go the distance, the bettor profits $240,000 (total payout $270,000).
- $10,000 Portugal +800 to win the World Cup (Caesars). That bet nets $80,000 profit if Portugal lifts the trophy (total payout $90,000).
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