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NFL Week 5 odds have a few games already on the move by midweek, but none more so than the Ravens vs. Falcons Sunday night showdown.
And that gives you an idea of just how valuable Lamar Jackson is to the point spread.
Jackson (ankle) is unlikely to suit up, and oddsmakers are responding accordingly.
“He’s worth 6 to 6.5 points, from him down to Tyler Huntley,” Caesars Sports head of football trading Joey Feazel said. “Huntley is serviceable. But Lamar is a special talent in this league, in the hunt for MVP every year.”
Much more on Ravens-Falcons, the 49ers-Seahawks clash in America’s Game of the Week on FOX, the Bills-Rams marquee matchup and more, as we dive into NFL Week 5 betting nuggets.
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Favorite Flips
Baltimore is 3-1 straight up (SU) this season but 1-3 against the spread (ATS), while Atlanta is 2-2 both SU and ATS.
On Sunday evening, Caesars opened the Ravens as 3.5-point road favorites vs. the Falcons. By Monday afternoon, Baltimore was down to -2.5.
After the Falcons’ impressive 45-24 road rout of the Saints on Monday night, and with Jackson’s status further in question, the line jumped the fence to Atlanta -1.5 early Tuesday morning.
And by Tuesday afternoon, it was Falcons -3.5 (even), where the line remained Wednesday evening for an 8:20 p.m. ET Sunday kickoff.
“It’s now looking like Lamar is almost for sure out,” Feazel said. “Between that and having Michael Penix and two fantastic running backs show out on Monday night, the Falcons are catching bettors’ attention.”
In the Monday night win, Bijan Robinson (two) and Brian Robinson (three) combined for five touchdowns.
“We’ve gone 7 points the other way, to Falcons -3.5, and it’s one-way traffic on the Falcons so far.”
Sharp bettors got on Atlanta at much more attractive numbers, taking the Falcons +3.5/+3/+2.5 late Sunday and Monday.
NFL Rocks On FOX
America’s Game of the Week is a rematch from last season’s NFC divisional round, in which the Seahawks belted the 49ers 41-6.
This time around, San Francisco is 4-0 SU/3-1 ATS, while Seattle is 3-1 SU/1-2-1 ATS.
Caesars opened the Seahawks as 3.5-point home favorites and quickly went to -3 (-105) Sunday. That’s where the number sat Wednesday night.
Will Brock Purdy and his 49ers continue to impress in Week 5? (Getty Images)
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“We’ve seen some good two-way action on this game,” Feazel said. “I would not be surprised to [ultimately] have a lot of 49ers action come in. San Fran has been impressive.
“I anticipate that we’ll need Seattle to win by 1 or 2, to not cover the spread. There’s San Francisco moneyline play, and the public is playing the Over, too.”
That said, the total dipped from 47.5 to 46.5, due to early sharp play on the Under. Kickoff is at 4:25 p.m. ET Sunday on FOX.
Marquee Monday Matchup
The biggest game of the week is the last, with the top two teams in Super Bowl odds squaring off.
The Rams are the +650 favorite to win it all, with the Bills right behind at +700.
Los Angeles (2-2 SU and ATS) opened as a 2.5-point home favorite vs. Buffalo (3-1 SU and ATS). The Rams advanced to -3 on Monday morning at Caesars.
“We’ve already seen some sharper action on the Rams to get us to 3,” Feazel said, while adding that he expects a swing the other way from the masses. “The public loves the Bills each week, and they love Josh Allen.
The public not surprisingly loves Josh Allen and the Bills (Getty Images).
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“They’ve been betting Buffalo no matter what the line is. They don’t think twice about that. So while we’re seeing the Rams move right now, I anticipate Bills money on Sunday night and Monday.”
That said, Caesars’ primary concern lies with the total for these two strong offenses, in an 8:15 p.m. ET Monday night kick.
“The biggest need is gonna be the Under. The total is already up two points, from 52.5 to 54.5,” Feazel said. “We’re seeing less and less sharp resistance. So the big need is gonna be a lower-scoring affair.”
NFL Sharp Side
Professional bettor Randy McKay got there in Week 4 by taking the Browns +3, with Cleveland beating the Steelers outright 27-24 on a final-seconds field goal.
In NFL Week 5 odds, McKay looks to an NFC East rivalry and another underdog. He’s taking the Giants +3.5 on the road vs. the Commanders.
“Injuries and travel problems will make this a nice spot for the G-Men,” McKay said. “I don’t understand why teams don’t get a bye off a London game.”
Washington traveled to London in Week 4, falling to the Colts 30-13 and losing Marcus Mariota to a knee injury. Jayden Daniels (elbow) is expected to return this week, but running back Jacory Croskey-Merritt and wideouts Terry McLaurin and Stefon Diggs are all questionable.
New York is surprisingly 3-1 SU and ATS, despite losing QB Jaxson Dart in Week 2. Washington is 1-3 SU/2-2 ATS entering this 1 p.m. ET Sunday kickoff on FOX.
London Calling
Speaking of London: Week 5 Sunday gets off to an early start with a 9:30 a.m. kick between the Eagles and Jaguars, at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium.
It’s another game seeing substantial line movement, due to a flood of Philly injuries. Star running back Saquon Barkley and wideout DeVonta Smith are both questionable with hamstring issues. Second-string running back Tank Bigsby (abdomen) just went on IR this week.
Plus, tight end Dallas Goedert (knee) is doubtful, likely missing a third straight game. Plenty more injuries dot the Eagles’ roster on both sides of the ball.
And right tackle Lane Johnson literally retired on Tuesday. In the wake of all that, Jacksonville (3-1 SU and ATS) has gone from -2.5 all the way to -7.5 this week at Caesars.
Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars are accustomed to playing games in London (Getty Images).
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“You usually see this kind of movement when the quarterback is out. But Hurts is one of the Eagles who’s actually not hurt right now,” Feazel said. “On the other side, the Jags have looked really good in the first four weeks. They’re now 13/1 in Super Bowl odds.
“It’s an absolute perfect storm of injuries for the Eagles.”
Add to all that a familiarity edge for Jacksonville, vs. a Philly team that hasn’t covered this season (2-2 SU/0-4 ATS).
“The Jags have played in London so many times, it’s almost like a home field for them,” Feazel said. “It’s one-way action on the Jaguars, mostly at 2.5, 3.5 and 4.5. Not as much after 4.5.”
