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Perimeter security appliances source of most ransomware hits

Compromised or vulnerable perimeter security appliances and devices – especially virtual private networks (VPNs) – formed the initial access vector in over half of observed ransomware attacks during 2024, according to data released this week by cyber security insurance provider Coalition in its latest annual threat report, covering 2024.

US-based Coalition, which began offering its so-called Active Insurance policies in the UK back in 2022, said that cyber criminals compromised such appliances in 58% of claims with which it dealt during 2024, with the second most widespread access point being remote desktop products, blamed in 18% of claims.

“While ransomware is a serious concern for all businesses, these insights demonstrate that threat actors’ ransomware playbook hasn’t evolved all that much – they’re still going after the same tried and true technologies with many of the same methods,” said Alok Ojha, head of security products at Coalition.

“This means that businesses can have a reliable playbook too, and should focus on mitigating the riskiest security issues first to reduce the likelihood of ransomware or another cyber attack. Continuous attack surface monitoring to detect these technologies and mitigate possible vulnerabilities could mean the difference between a threat and an incident.”

Unsurprisingly, the most commonly compromised products were all built by ‘household’ names in the industry, including the likes of Cisco, Fortinet, Microsoft, Palo Alto Networks and SonicWall. The most common initial access vectors (IAVs) were stolen credentials, used in 47% of such intrusions, and software exploits, seen in 29% of cases.

Coalition’s analysts warned that exposed logins were fast-emerging as an underappreciated and acute driver of ransomware risks. They claimed that the organisation detected more than five million remote management solutions and tens of thousands of login panels exposed on the public internet. It added that, according to its data, most applicants for cyber insurance (65%) had at least one internet-exposed web login panel, and securing these is a requirement for buying its products.

Out of these, the most commonly exposed admin login panels related to VPNs from Cisco and SonicWall, which between them accounted for over 19% of detected exposed panels, followed by Microsoft email services.

In 2024, Coalition also observed a significant number of exposed Citrix panels, which caused significant losses, including more than a billion dollars from the infamous Change Healthcare incident in the US, in which a ransomware gang used stolen Citrix credentials and exploited a lack of multifactor authentication to access the victim’s systems.

CVEs set to jump in 2025

As part of the set of services Coalition provides, it sends out zero-day alerts to its customers as and when new vulnerabilities are discovered, and constantly monitors for new vulnerabilities.

As such, its annual report also includes data on some of the more widespread common vulnerabilities and exposures (CVEs) it saw in 2024 – issues with Citrix, Fortinet, Ivanti and Palo Alto Networks prominent among them.

Looking ahead to 2025, Coalition’s analysts said the number of published vulnerabilities would likely increase to more than 45,000, a rate of nearly 4,000 every month, up 15% over the first 10 months of 2024.

This aligns closely with data released in February by the Forum of Incident Response and Security Teams (First), a non-profit, which suggested that CVE volumes may even top 50,000 this year.

A combination of new players in the CVE ecosystem, evolving disclosure compliance practices and a rapidly expanding attack surface are likely behind the growing number of vulnerabilities being reported on.

“This year’s report focuses on the most crucial security risks that under-resourced organisations should understand to better calibrate their defensive investments to bolster resilience,” said Daniel Woods, senior security researcher at Coalition.

“Calibration involves balancing security investment across vulnerabilities, misconfigurations and threat intelligence, while also responding to emerging threats, such as zero-day vulnerabilities exploited in the wild. That’s why Coalition issues Zero-Day Alerts to help businesses, especially SMEs with limited security resources, stay ahead of these vulnerabilities and reduce alert fatigue by prioritising those posing the greatest risk.”

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GenAI demand fuels record sales of datacentre hardware and software in 2024

Demand for generative artificial intelligence (AI) services is being cited as the reason why spending on datacentre hardware and software hit a record high in 2024.

According to figures from IT analyst Synergy Research Group, total spending in the datacentre hardware and software market was up 34% year-on-year during 2024, as a result of hyperscale providers and private enterprises looking to kit out AI-ready server farms.

John Dinsdale, chief analyst at Synergy Research Group, said this trend had led to more investment in graphics processing units (GPUs), which had in turn “lit a fire under a market” that was already “chugging along nicely”.

As a result, the datacentre hardware and software market enjoyed record growth rates in 2024, with total sales in excess of $280bn, which he described as unprecedented.

“While the ongoing success of public cloud has been the main driving force behind datacentre investments for well over a decade now, no one imagined a 2024 market for datacentre gear reaching over $280bn,” said Dinsdale.

These figures are based on actual sales data from the first three quarters of 2024, combined with Synergy’s own fourth quarter forecast data for the datacentre hardware and software market.

The Synergy data shows that sales of datacentre kit to public cloud providers were up 50% in 2024, while the amount of spend attributed to enterprises was also up 21% year-on-year. “In recent years, growth in the enterprise sector has been rather anaemic, [and] for over 10 years now, cloud providers have increasingly driven the market for datacentre gear – and Synergy’s five-year forecast shows there will be no letup in this trend,” said Dinsdale.

Public cloud providers now account for more than half of the spend (55%) in the datacentre hardware and software market, Dinsdale continued, up from 20% 10 years ago. “Our forecast shows it reaching almost 65% five years from now,” he added.

Around 85% of the spend in this market is generated by the sale of servers, storage and networking kit, confirmed Synergy, while the remaining 15% comes from sales of cloud management, security and virtualisation software.

One notable trend, called out by Synergy, is how prominently Nvidia now features among the roll-call of datacentre hardware providers, thanks in no small part to the fact its GPU technology is being sold directly to both hyperscalers and enterprises.

“Excluding original design manufacturers, Dell is the overall leader in the server and storage segment, with Inspur being a clear leader in server sales to public cloud providers,” said Synergy, in its research note.

“Cisco is the leader in the networking segment, while Microsoft features prominently in the rankings due to its position in server operating systems and virtualisation applications. Nvidia now features heavily as a supplier both to other system vendors and directly to service providers.”

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The Security Interviews: Martin Lee, Cisco Talos

The first thing worth knowing about the first ever ransomware locker is that its use was apparently motivated by revenge rather than outright criminality. The second thing worth knowing is that there was not a Russian speaker in sight.

In fact, its author, Joseph Popp, grew up in Ohio and was educated at Harvard University. He was an anthropologist and biologist and an expert on HIV/AIDS, who worked closely with the World Health Organisation (WHO) in Africa – and was passed over for a job there, something that may have led to the apparent mental breakdown that resulted in the creation of the concept of ransomware.

The AIDS Trojan that Popp “unleashed” on the world in December 1989 was a simple piece of software by any standard. Technically, it was really a denial of service (DOS) scrambler, which replaced the AUTOEXEC.bat file used to execute commands when the computer system started up.

It then counted the number of boot cycles the system went through until it hit 90, at which point it hid directories and encrypted the names of the C drive files on the system. Victims, or targets, then saw a message informing them that their systems were infected by a virus.

“Remember, there is NO cure for AIDS,” the message chillingly read.

How were they infected? Popp posted 20,000 floppy disks to fellow attendees of a WHO AIDS conference, and created what we would now know as a phishing lure by labelling them “AIDS Information – Introductory Diskettes”.

Victims were told to send $189 (about $480, or £378 adjusted to 2024) to a PO Box number belonging to the PC Cyborg Corporation in Panama. The software also included an end user licence agreement (EULA) informing “users” that they would be liable for the cost of “leasing” it.

Popp, who was arrested in the US and extradited to the UK, never stood trial after a British judge ruled him mentally unfit to do so – he had developed a habit of wearing condoms on his nose, hair curlers in his beard, and cardboard boxes on his head, according to media reports at the time. Whether or not this was a deliberate ploy rather than an expression of insanity remains unclear. Back in the States, Popp went on to open an eponymously named butterfly sanctuary and tropical garden in upstate New York, and died in 2007.

Reflecting on the weird story behind the AIDS Trojan, Martin Lee, technical lead for security research at Cisco’s Talos intelligence and research unit, describes the malware as the creation of “an insane criminal genius”.

“It really was something completely new, a new dimension that hadn’t been mentioned before,” Lee tells Computer Weekly. “If we think back to the year 1989, the internet was still basically a dozen computers in universities and the military. The internet, as we know it, had not taken off, the World Wide Web had not taken off. Most computers were not networked at all, even hard disk drives were very much a luxury optional extra.

“All of these things that we now take for granted – distribution over a network, payment by cryptocurrency – none of this existed. It was a fairly limited attack…It is not known, but it is not believed, that anybody paid the ransom.”

Moreover, the cyber security profession simply did not exist in its current form in 1989. “It was nowhere near what it is today. It was a different world,” says Lee, who characterises the IT of the day as “prehistoric”.

“The term cyber security didn’t exist and the industry didn’t exist. There were individuals we would recognise as practicing information security, but they tended to be in the types of environments that required security clearance, like the military or governments. It would have been a tight community where everyone knew each other.

“Certainly at the time, the first ransomware did not make a big splash in the news,” he adds.

Ahead of his time

That Popp was somewhat ahead of his time is clear in that the idea of ransomware didn’t really rear its head again until the mid-90s, when academics and computer scientists first starting playing around with the idea of combining computer virus – or malware – functionality with cryptography.

But even then, the world spent another decade in blissful ignorance before the first attempt was made at a criminal ransomware attack of the type we would recognise in the 2020s.

Gpcode, as it was termed, first popped up in Russia in December 2004, 20 years ago, when reports started to emerge that individual people’s files were being encrypted by some strange new form of cyber attack.

“Ultimately, it turned out that an individual was, if I remember correctly, harvesting information from Russian job sites and emailing jobseekers saying, ‘Hey, we would like you to apply for this job’,” says Lee.

“The lure document purported to be a job application form, but in fact it was ransomware which encrypted the files, and the ransom was to be paid by money transfer. This is really the first modern criminal ransomware where the objective – to make money – is clear.”

Gpcode was “incredibly rudimentary” as ransomware goes – it used a 600-Bit RSA public key to encrypt its victim’s files, and Lee says that demanding the ransom be paid by money transfer (Bitcoin was still a few years off) was a dangerous gamble for the cyber criminals behind Gpcode, because it left them open to being tracked by law enforcement.

Gpcode was not a runaway success – in that it did not net millions for its creators as ransomwares do today – but it was notable in that it meant ransomware was starting to cut through, both in the still-emerging cyber security community and among laypeople.

Gpcode also helped to establish some of the popular tropes around ransomware phishing lures – today, phantom job offers are frequently used against victim organisations, particularly when executed as part of a targeted attack via a highly placed executive, for example.

Continuous innovation

Over the decade that followed, the story of ransomware became one of almost continuous innovation, as cyber criminals became more motivated to extort money and to avoid capture and prosecution.

Anonymity during the payment process was a particularly thorny problem that the criminal underground needed to overcome, says Lee.

“In 2004, Gpcode had a single software engineer slash operator conducting the attacks, and they had this problem of how are they going to get the ransom paid to them in a way that’s easy for the victim, but provides anonymity for the criminal,” he says.

“Initially, we have the rise of digital currencies, E-Gold and Liberty [Reserve] to name but two, which were mechanisms outside of the traditionally regulated banking industry for transferring value between individuals,” says Lee. “They were – how should we put this – abused.”

The big disadvantage of these digital currencies is that they both had a single point of failure from the cyber criminals’ perspective, in that law enforcement agencies and regulators could act to disrupt the flow of illicit payments traversing them, which of course is exactly what happened.

“This then coincides with the rise of cryptocurrencies, giving an alternative way for criminals to collect their ransom through crypto,” says Lee.

“The other big innovation addressed the weak point of early ransomware – is it was one developer and operator – so we did see in the mid-2000s the development of the first ransomware as a service.

“Malicious software engineers who were very good at writing code but maybe not so good at distributing ransomware or coming up with social engineering lures could focus on the code and then develop a partner portal so that less technically sophisticated cyber criminals could participate in attacks – they could be hired, or enter into a partnership,” says Lee. “If they divide up the tasks, it makes it more efficient.”

Though it may surprise some to learn that the concept of ransomware as a service, or RaaS, is well over 10 years old, it emerged at a very different time, and the ransomware ecosystem had to go through a few more evolutions to reach its present, devastating form.

Up to date

Lee explains: “The next big change comes in 2016 with the gang using SamSam. Prior to that, ransomware was a mass-market attack, distributing as much ransomware as possible to as many end-users as possible, getting it onto PCs, and demanding a few hundred dollars for the victim to get what’s on their endpoints back.

“The big innovation was the gang distributing SamSam chose their victims in a different way. Instead of going for sheer numbers, they would identify businesses, get inside their networks, and combine traditional hacking techniques – infiltrating the network, finding key servers that businesses relied on, and getting the ransomware on those key servers.

“In encrypting the files and stopping the functionality of those key servers,” says Lee, “SamSam brought the entire business to a half, and at that point the gang could ask for a much, much larger ransom.”

This is not to say that mass-market, end-user focused ransomware has gone away, it is very much still a threat, and in many ways, it is more devastating for the average person to be hit with ransomware than it is for a well-insured, regulated corporation.

“I’ve had people reach out to me with an elderly parent whose laptop has been hit with ransomware and it had the last photos of their deceased spouse on it, is there a way of getting it back?” says Lee.

“It’s heartbreaking, and nine times out of 10 the answer is no. So, this has not gone away and it’s not going to. Businesses may have more to lose than an end-user, but that’s not to say that end-users can’t suffer significant pain.

“But the big money for the bad guys is in businesses, getting inside businesses, causing high-value disruption and destroying large amounts of value, because the profits are so much higher.”

This brings us neatly to the developments we have seen since 2020, when the scourge of ransomware really took off, and cyber security broke out of its niche and started to make national headlines. These have all been well-documented, including the rise of double extortion attacks and the emergence of an extensive underground economy of affiliates and brokers. We are even seeing what looks like collaboration between financially motivated cyber criminal gangs and politically motivated cyber espionage operators.

This year, we have seen the beginnings of a new trend in which ransomware gangs actually forego the ransomware locker entirely. Just last month, the Australian and American authorities released new intelligence on the work of the BianLian ransomware gang, which has shifted solely to extortion without encryption.

Could it be that ransomware, in its traditional form, is starting to reach the end of the line?

Looking ahead

Probably not, says Lee, looking ahead, although it will look different: “You know IT brings enormous positives to our lives and enables so much – but anywhere where IT is creating value, criminals are looking for ways to piggyback and steal that value. Ransomware has proved to be a very profitable way for them do it.

“I think that for any new ways in which we use IT in the near- and medium-term future, we can expect there will be criminals looking to make money off that, and one of the ways that they’re going to do it, for certain, is going to be through ransomware.”

From ransomware’s birth pangs as the howl of the frustrated and aggrieved Joseph Popp, we can chart a clear line to the big bucks ransomware hits of the 2020s, and this continuity of criminality and innovation leads Lee to a simple conclusion.

“We need to be much more aware that for anything IT touches, we need to think about cyber security, we need to think about how the bad guys might disrupt it, because for certain, they’re going to be thinking too and someone’s going to try it.

“The history of ransomware has been one of constant innovation, and we can expect that to continue into the future,” he says.

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