The past week perfectly displayed the Yin and Yang of betting on NFL odds, particularly for high-rollers, who aren’t necessarily sharp, but certainly have a lot of disposable income.
Last Monday night, a six-figure bet landed on the Falcons to beat the Saints. On Sunday night, an even larger six-figure play dropped on the Ravens to beat the Falcons.
And in between, the Cowboys were dealt the season’s biggest upset by the Bucs, vaporizing a six-figure wager while making a big winner of a prediction markets trader.
More on all that activity, along with a parlay that rode Oklahoma’s upset to a five-figure payday, plus a seemingly ridiculous Polymarket trade on the Jaguars that needed just eight seconds to cash out.
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Six-Figure Sweats
In the final game of Week 4, the Falcons and Saints got together last Monday night in New Orleans. At Caesars Sports, a customer ponied up $150,000 on Atlanta moneyline +105.
Then the two-headed monster of Bijan Robinson and Brian Robinson combined for five touchdowns, as the Falcons rolled to a 45-24 victory. The bettor bagged $157,500 profit, for a total payout of $307,500.
But as they say, what comes around, goes around.
In NFL Week 5 odds, the Falcons were home favorites vs. the Ravens because Baltimore didn’t have quarterback Lamar Jackson, who was out with an ankle injury.
That led to a lot of Atlanta support from the public betting masses.
In Las Vegas, though, a high-roller put a whopping $272,194.60 (yep, 60 cents, too, and don’t ask me why) on Ravens moneyline +155 at Red Rock Resort.
Derrick Henry helped lead the Ravens to a win over the Falcons on Sunday (Getty Images).
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The Falcons led much of the night, including 23-15 after a field goal with 2:31 remaining. But the Ravens then drove for a touchdown, and Derrick Henry ran in the 2-point conversion to tie it at 23 and force overtime.
Then backup QB Tyler Huntley led a 14-play, 68-yard drive, capped by his 1-yard TD plunge. A Ravens interception subsequently ended the Falcons’ possession and the game, giving Baltimore a 30-23 victory.
And giving the bettor a massive win of $421,901.65, for a total payout of $694,096.25.
Big Winner, Big Loser
The Cowboys were the biggest favorite on the NFL Week 5 oddsboard, closing at -9.5 against the winless Bucs. And there were more signs that pointed to an easy Dallas victory:
- Tampa Bay was on an 0-13 nosedive against the spread (2-11 straight up)
- The Bucs were starting undrafted rookie Jalon Daniels at QB
- Tampa was traveling on a short week
A Caesars Sports customer got a better number than the closer, putting $106,000 on Cowboys -8. But at no point was Dallas covering, and in fact, the Pokes trailed almost the entire second half, including 24-10 after the third quarter.
The Cowboys ultimately lost 24-16, making that wager a six-figure donation to the house.
On the flip side, though, a trader at Kalshi put $84,000 worth of faith into the big underdog Buccaneers. The transaction was at a price of 20%, which correlates to +400 in betting odds.
Behind a clean game from Daniels and a big night from running back Bucky Irving, Tampa Bay held on for a 24-16 victory. And the Kalshi customer bagged a huge profit of $336,000 (total payout $420,000).
Parlay Partay
If you can accurately predict underdogs winning outright, then you stand to make some good money. Much easier said than done, of course.
But a Fanatics Sportsbook customer rode four college football upsets to a big payday, capped by one of the day’s biggest games, Texas vs. Oklahoma.
The bettor put $100 on a parlay that included two teams as even bigger underdogs than Oklahoma: Buffalo at Toledo, and California at home vs. Virginia Tech.
Surprisingly, Buffalo scored the first 16 points vs. Toledo en route to a 23-8 victory. And Cal got a touchdown with 18 seconds left to knock off VaTech 25-20.
Houston had zero trouble with Kansas State, rolling 35-16. And Oklahoma finished it off, rallying from a 17-7 halftime deficit to upend No. 1 Texas 27-24 on a final-seconds field goal.
At hefty odds of +14676 — just shy of 147/1 — that hundred bucks turned into $14,676 profit.
Now that’s an upset.
Prediction Market Winners & Losers
Prediction markets remain a controversial topic but are still operating and seeing a lot of football trades made across the country. And there were some big transactions over the past few days.
On Sunday, though, a far smaller trade actually proved to be the most interesting, and the ROI was fantastic.
A Kalshi customer put $175 on Giants vs. Commanders ending in a tie, at a price of just 2%. That translates to odds of about +4903.
Washington took a 27-13 lead on Jayden Daniels’ second TD run of the game, with 11:05 remaining in the fourth quarter. But New York rallied with two touchdowns to tie it at 27 with 1:43 left, and the game went to overtime.
Then neither team scored in OT, with Washington completely blowing an opportunity to kick the winning field goal in the waning seconds.
Instead, the clock ran out after Daniels was sacked at the Giants’ 24-yard line.
So the game ended in a 27-27 tie, and the trader profited $8,581 (total payout $8,756). No, it’s not a six-figure payday. But anytime you can 49x your money, it’s been a great day.
And how about this maneuver at Polymarket: After the Jaguars went down 17-16 on an Eagles field goal, with just eight seconds remaining, a trader put $2,817.99 on Jacksonville to win the game. That trade was also in the 2% range of succeeding.
But Ameer Abdullah had other ideas, returning the ensuing kickoff 53 yards to the Eagles’ 39-yard line. Adbullah was brought down with just one second on the clock, and Cam Little then booted a 57-yard field goal to give the Jags a shocking 19-17 victory.
And the trader profited $122,426.01 (total payout $125,244).
Here’s Hoping You Had It
It’s not all about making big bets or cashing out huge on a 10-leg parlay. Which, to be clear, is rare.
Sometimes, it’s about putting 10 bucks on a single straight bet, backing a long shot or semi-long shot, and getting a solid return on investment.
For example, backup tight end Teagan Quitoriano somehow had two of the Cardinals’ three touchdowns in a 45-21 blowout loss to the Lions. At Caesars Sports, Quitoriano was +45000 (450/1) to score two or more TDs.
If you’d just taken a $10 flier on that player prop, then you’d be sitting on $4,500 profit.
But that’s a huge long shot. In the more realistic realm: How about QB C.J. Stroud scoring the first touchdown of the Texans-Titans game?
Stroud was +3500 (35/1) to do so at DraftKings Sports. Strangely, the game’s first TD didn’t come until midway through the third quarter, but it was on a 2-yard Stroud run.
Ten bucks on that would’ve netted $350 profit.
In the Bucs’ Thursday night upset, Bucky Irving was +1500 to score two or more touchdowns, at FanDuel Sports. He scored in the second and third quarters.
A tenner on that turns into $150 profit. If you got frisky and bet $100, then you’d pocket $1,500.
And if you’re one of those who likes to take an alternative shot on First Touchdown Scorer, then the Ravens-Falcons game provided just such an opportunity.
Seven minutes into the first quarter, Atlanta safety Jessie Bates III got a scoop-and-score off a Mark Andrews fumble, returning it 36 yards to put the Falcons up 7-3.
In the First TD Scorer market, FanDuel had Atlanta’s defense at +3500. Ten dollars on that would have your wallet $350 fatter today.
I Like Big Bets And I Cannot Lie
The biggest reported bet on either NFL Week 5 odds or college football Week 6 odds arrived at Caesars Sports on Saturday’s Texas A&M vs. Missouri showdown.
The customer dropped an eye-popping $850,000 on Tigers moneyline -173. All Mizzou had to do was win, by any margin.
It was a no-sweat bet, as the Tigers coasted to a 27-6 victory. The bettor turned a profit of $491,329 (total payout $1,341,329).
Parlaying big favorites isn’t always the best idea. But it can pay off, and it did for a Station Sports customer on Sunday in Vegas.
The bettor put $139,000 on Bengals moneyline -170/Lions moneyline -250. So all that was needed was for Cincinnati to beat Miami and Detroit to beat Arizona, regardless of margin.
The Lions routed the Cards 45-21, while the Bengals held off Miami 31-24. At -128 odds, the bettor profited $108,194 (total payout $247,194).
The Bengals’ victory over Miami helped one bettor win their parlay.
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Other notable wagers on NFL Week 5 odds and college football Week 6 odds:
- $112,000 Oregon moneyline -440 vs. UCLA (Caesars). The customer got an expensive lesson, as the Ducks tumbled 17-15 in one of the weekend’s biggest upsets
- $75,000 USC +3 (-150) vs. Penn State (Station). The underdog Trojans won outright 31-23, and the bettor netted $50,000 profit (total payout $125,000)
- $75,000 Kansas State moneyline -145 vs. Houston (Station). This was likely from the same bettor who had the USC wager. So the customer gave it all back and then some, as K-State lost 35-16
- $70,000 Bucs +9 (-112) vs. Cowboys (Caesars). As noted above, Tampa got the upset. So the bettor banked $62,500 profit (total payout $132,500)
- $66,000 Arizona State -20.5 (-114) vs. Hawaii (Caesars). That’s a five-figure donation to the house, as ASU wins 30-12, just short of covering the spread
- $50,000 Derrick Henry Anytime TD -150 (Caesars). It took until the third quarter, but the reliable Henry scored on an 18-yard TD pass in the Ravens’ 30-23 overtime win vs. the Falcons. So the bettor profited $33,333 (total payout $83,333)
It’s always worth reminding that these high-profile, high-net-worth customers have the ability to make big bets and often absorb big losses.
For you and me, not so much. So keep your bet size and expectations reasonable. Never bet more than you can afford to lose.
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