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By now, you’ve heard some variation of the story.

Indiana athletics director Scott Dolson has told it countless times. It’s been printed in newspaper copy for months. It’s been chronicled in books about the remarkable rise of Hoosiers football.

Nobody knew exactly who Indiana hired in Curt Cignetti in December 2024, but there was an idea, a feeling, an inkling about what he might represent and what the Indiana brass wanted.

Dolson and his staff created a manifesto of sorts in the wake of the Tom Allen era. They circled traditional basketball powers like Kansas and North Carolina and how they held their own in football’s modern era.

Indiana wanted that. It desired a sitting head coach to match those ambitions.

That led to Cignetti.

Curt Cignetti is 33-2 midway through his third season at Indiana. (Photo by Steven Branscombe/Getty Images)

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“There’s no perfect answer,” Dolson told me. “But, for us, where we were with the program, we felt like we needed someone who really just had a lot of experience as a head coach at managing the program, really had a blueprint.”

Walt Disney might scoff at the underdog tale that has unfolded in Bloomington of late as almost too unbelievable, too cliché. But believe it. The national championship signage emblazoned on Memorial Stadium’s South End Zone is a reminder of what has transpired.

                    

FBS head coaches

 2024 2025 2026*

• Curt Cignetti (Indiana): 33 wins (2024: 11, 2025: 16, 2026: 6)
• Ryan Day (Ohio State): 31 wins (2024: 14, 2025: 12, 2026: 5)
• Marcus Freeman (Notre Dame): 30 wins (2024: 14, 2025: 10, 2026: 6)
• Kirby Smart (Georgia): 29 wins (2024: 11, 2025: 12, 2026: 6)
• Dan Lanning (Oregon): 29 wins (2024: 13, 2025: 13, 2026: 3)

A statue of the at-times grumpy, yet candid and viciously meticulous head coach that spearheaded this transformation is almost certain to be part of this permanence sooner than later.

But as No. 5 Indiana approaches perhaps the most anticipated home game in program history on Saturday against No. 4 Ohio State, the impact of this tale and the thinking that brought Cignetti to Bloomington are having far-reaching ramifications.

The Hoosiers have their unicorn. The rest of College Football Inc. is trying to find theirs.

“There’s no magic bullet,” one industry source familiar with the coaching carousel told me. “I love the Indiana story and the Cignetti story, but that doesn’t mean that’s just going to happen every year.”

Leaning Toward Experience

Jamie Pollard has had brief moments of introspection in recent weeks.

Retirement looms for the outgoing Iowa State athletics director. He’ll make it back to Ames for a handful of football games, but split time in Arizona, running or playing golf.

During a reflective call in recent days, he thought back to pillar moments of his two-plus decades leading the department — efforts that made him among the longest-tenured administrators in the country — and the football hires that defined that period.

“What I would tell you that I’ve observed is the two coordinators [I hired] spent their first several weeks, months, putting together their staff,” Pollard recounted. “Then that staff had to kind of figure out its culture, and, in some ways, we lost a year because it took a year for them to really get focused on what kind of players? What do we need? The whole operation.

“And so when we hired Matt [Campbell] 10 years ago, I made the decision that we were going to hire a sitting head coach.”

Matt Campbell posted a 72-55 record in ten seasons as Iowa State’s head coach. (Photo by David K Purdy/Getty Images)

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Talk to any administrator, search firm executive or coaching agent, and they’ll echo similar sentiments — there is no perfect way to hire a coach. But as Cignetti has torched college football’s best, the emphasis on head coaching experience and success at lower rungs of the sport has become prioritized in circles it was once more broadly ignored.

Before replacing a legend at Alabama, Kalen DeBoer won three national titles at NAIA Sioux Falls.

Before helping Houston into the Big 12 race, Willie Fritz won big at Blinn Junior College.

Before stabilizing Kansas, Lance Leipold won six national championships at Division III Wisconsin-Whitewater.

Before reigniting Florida, Jon Sumrall won conference titles at Troy and Tulane.

“I’ve had an AD and president push back on a lower-level profile when a candidate came up,” a second industry source told me. “I’m like, ‘Well, where did Curt Cignetti come from?’ He was head coach at [IU-Pennsylvania].”

“We looked at Lance Leipold, his success and how he really was able to do what he did at Kansas, and getting that program stabilized,” Dolson said. “… History is the greatest predictor of the future, right? We looked at that and, at the time, that felt like ‘Wow, that’s really a telling thing.’”

Lance Leipold has posted a 29-38 record during his time at Kansas. (Photo by Scott Llewellyn/MI News/NurPhoto via Getty Images)

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During the interview process that would land him at Iowa State, Pollard’s eventual head coach asked if he could bring his assistant coaches from Toledo with him.

The prevailing thought in college football circles had been that lower-level staffs need to be bolstered with Power Four experience. Pollard didn’t buy it.

“If you don’t, I’m not hiring you,” he deadpanned. 

Campbell laughed.

“Well, most Power Four jobs, the coaches are told, ‘You’re going to have to go get a big-name coordinator, or you’ve got to get this,’” he said at the time. “I kind of was of the understanding that I couldn’t bring them.”

While Campbell’s hiring at Iowa State is a decade past, Cignetti has been among the harbingers of administrator and search firms’ more recent hiring inclinations. 

Arkansas State athletics director Chris Pezman, a former Houston linebacker who hired Fritz from Tulane, couldn’t shake the loss the Green Wave handed Pezman’s alma mater in 2022.

Fritz — by then a more established commodity after successful runs at Blinn, Central Missouri and then-FCS Sam Houston State — downed Houston in overtime with a third-string quarterback.

“I couldn’t get over it because this kid just found out on like Thursday he was starting and came in and beat us at our place,” Pezman told me. “His ability to get kids to play above themselves [stood out], and you saw that later on.”

Tulane quarterback Kai Horton led the Green Wave to a memorable 27-24 win over Houston in 2022. (Photo by Ken Murray/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

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Pezman filed that sentiment away when searching for Dana Holgorsen’s replacement in 2023. 

Pollard, too, used similar priorities that brought Campbell to Ames when replacing him with ex-Washington State and South Dakota State head coach Jimmy Rogers this past offseason.

“Five years ago, you’d hire the hot coordinator, and you’d help them figure it out, because most of the time, you’d be signing guys knowing they’re going to get to Year 4 or 5 in the contract,” Pezman continued. “Now, with the way the industry’s gone, pressures that are on everybody financially, you get maybe two, three years to figure out if they’re the guy. … That’s where the premium [on head coaching experience] is, because they can come in and know what they need.”

Is it a touch too early to call the bend toward head coaching experience a full-blown trend? Perhaps. But it’s not nothing.

Last year’s coaching cycle saw a historic 17 Power Four jobs change hands. Of those, 10 went to sitting head coaches, while ex-Northwestern head coach Pat Fitzgerald also landed at Michigan State. Two were internal promotions — Morgan Scalley (Utah) and Pete Golding (Ole Miss). One — Tavita Pritchard (Stanford) — came by way of the NFL.

Only three went to coordinators — Will Stein (Kentucky), Collin Klein (Kansas State) and Tosh Lupoi (Cal). 

Even at the Group of Six level, nine head coaches — like Missouri State’s Ryan Beard (Coastal Carolina), Jim Mora Jr. (Colorado State), Jason Candle (UConn), Mike Jacobs (Toledo) and Will Hall (Tulane) — were sitting head coaches or had been head coaches over the last three years.

Jim Mora was hired at Colorado State after serving as the head coach at UConn from 2022-2025. (Photo by Timothy Hurst/MediaNews Group/The Denver Post via Getty Images)

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Now, whether any of that equates to a title-level turn is a stiffer test.

“If you learn how to win, learn how to build a program, it takes a little bit of the risk away from having a first-time guy in somebody that’s done it at multiple levels and figured out ways to do it at multiple levels,” a third industry source told me. “Years ago, people would be hesitant to hire somebody coming from the FCS, but now I do think, man, if you’ve had success at multiple levels, Curt Cignetti has opened up that door. 

“Man, like, winners win.”

The Exception, Not The Rule

Georgia head coach Kirby Smart glanced down at the sheets resting on the podium before perking up and flashing a mild grin.

“I’m still waiting on the first ‘Cignetti effect’ in the SEC,” he said through his deep drawl during his weekly press conference on Tuesday. “It’s tough, tough, tough sledding week in, week out.”

Smart isn’t wrong. Cignetti is the exception to the rule. But as the cost of competing at the highest levels of college football rises month after month, administrators and boosters alike expect a return on investment, and that expectation has ramped up first-year pressure.

The Indiana Hoosiers reveal the 2025 national championship sign prior to the game against North Texas. (Photo by Justin Casterline/Getty Images)

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The Athletic reported in September that 15 programs were spending in a range that may reach $40 million or more this fall. Another 13 programs saw the top end of their prospective ranges north of $30 million.

That kind of commitment demands results — and breeds consternation when the on-field product doesn’t match.

LSU head coach Lane Kiffin has slogged to a 1-2 start in SEC play after the school committed somewhere in the neighborhood of $200 million between buying out Brian Kelly’s staff, bringing in Kiffin and flipping the Tigers’ roster.

Florida’s Jon Sumrall, two weeks after being anointed the second-coming of Steve Spurrier, hit the skids in losses to Missouri and South Carolina that have spiked anxiety levels in Gainesville.

Even Campbell, who was hired at Penn State after a topsy-turvy search that has fans sideways with administration in Happy Valley, is struggling to get the Nittany Lions off the ground after blowing a 17-0 lead to Wisconsin and falling to a susceptible USC squad the last two weeks. 

“There’s going to be a paradigm shift and a mindset change of educating people that, like the NFL, you know you’re going to lose games, but it’s all about, ‘Can we win nine or 10, get to the playoffs and make a run?’” said a fourth industry source. “… That should be the mentality, but everybody still has the mentality of ‘Well, we’re paying $30-40 million for a roster, we should win every game.’ It’s just not going to happen.”

Cignetti is at least partially to blame for the insatiable craving for instant success. After all, Indiana won a national championship. In football.

But for each slow start, there are those doing more with less that are expected to be hot commodities come carousel season, given their Cignetti-esque résumés and an ability to overachieve with less than ideal resources.

UCLA’s Bob Chesney has been a revelation in Westwood, guiding the previously downtrodden Bruins to a 5-0 start with a road win over Oregon last week despite athletics director Martin Jarmond being fired and Chesney’s predecessor, DeShaun Foster, not lasting two seasons.

Fritz, armed with one of the lowest roster budgets in the Power Four, has Houston humming heading into a crucial matchup with No. 18 Oklahoma State on Saturday.

Wake Forest’s Jake Dickert is in the midst of a 5-1 start despite a budget reportedly in the range of $16-20 million, per The Athletic. Sources suggest the former Washington State head coach will be among the most sought-after names on the carousel this fall.

Whether he’ll listen is another story.

Wake Forest coach Jake Dickert led the Demon Deacons to a win over Mississippi State in the Duke’s Mayo Bowl. (Photo by David Jensen/Getty Images)

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“None of these jobs are easy. None of them. Even Alabama, Texas. Those aren’t easy jobs either,” Wake Forest athletics director John Currie told me. “They all have dynamics, and so you can have experienced something hard as an assistant, but if you’ve experienced it as a head coach and you still have the energy to do it again, I think that’s really important.

“… Personally, I think there’s only so many of those packets of energy a person can deploy over their career. That’s one of the reasons that you see some head coaches transition from one place to another, and they don’t do as well. It’s just really hard to understand the level of energy that is required for that and that is a finite thing in most leagues.”

Cignetti, for his efforts, shows no signs of slowing down.

The 65-year-old one-time Nick Saban assistant is among the highest-paid coaches in the sport. That’s been matched with a budget that’s believed to be in the upper quartile of the Big Ten, per The Athletic.

Indiana has also rewarded Cignetti’s assistants handsomely. Defensive coordinator Bryant Haines — a popular assistant name for the coming cycle — is among the highest-paid assistants in the country. Offensive coordinator Mike Shanahan, too, is being paid more than $2.4 million annually.

Such is the cost of success. And maintaining it.

Indiana defensive coordinator Bryant Haines followed Curt Cignetti from James Madison to Indiana in 2024. (Photo by Joe Robbins/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

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Dolson almost perked up watching Iowa head coach Kirk Ferentz and the upstart Hawkeyes upset Michigan in Ann Arbor three weeks ago. The blueprint he saw in Ferentz’s squad was familiar, almost predictable. 

The former Bob Knight manager, who saw the rough and rugged nature of the Hoosiers’ basketball program up close during its heyday, wants the same characterization for his football program.

“Iowa’s teams, to me … look the same,” Dolson said. “Like, you can go back 50 years, the players in the uniforms change, but they look the same. And they’ve been able to recruit to that. They’ve developed their players. They’ve shown really better than anyone how you can have consistent results by really having that continuity and that blueprint. 

“That’s what we’re trying to do is emulate other programs that have been able to sustain continued success.”

Saturday is a chance for further proof of concept, that the money Indiana has sunk into its program is well-spent. But even if the Hoosiers can’t outlast Ryan Day’s Buckeyes, Cignetti and IU are already college football’s modern iconoclast.

“People still have the mindset that if one guy can do it, why can’t everybody else?” said the fourth industry source. “And it’s really the exception, not the rule.”

Everybody wants their own Curt Cignetti. Good luck finding it.

CFB Related Stories

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DODGER STADIUM (LOS ANGELES) – Twenty-four minutes after the Milwaukee Brewers’ latest onslaught pushed the defending back-to-back champions to the brink, Kiké Hernández remained in full uniform on Wednesday night. A fixture of this golden era of Los Angeles Dodgers baseball, Hernández sat in front of his locker with his face in his hands, staring silently ahead, still grappling with his superteam’s unforeseen reality. 

In an adjacent corner of the home clubhouse sat ace deadline addition Tarik Skubal, an example of the excess talent expected to keep this dynasty alive. The Dodgers are experienced and expensive. They are star-studded and steadfast, featuring an assortment of All-Stars and a fusion of fresh faces and long-time franchise luminaries. 

But they are neither invincible nor inevitable, certainly not in the way they seemed to be just a few days ago. 

“We didn’t expect to be in this position,” Hernández said after Wednesday night’s 6-2 loss put the Dodgers in a 3-0 hole in the National League Championship Series. “This one sucks.” 

A year after the Dodgers swept the Brewers in the NLCS, Milwaukee is one win away from returning the favor. The Brewers have not simply small-balled their way to three straight wins to begin the series; they have taken it to the Dodgers in every facet. 

Milwaukee is hitting .281 with five home runs and 15 runs scored over three games. Los Angeles, meanwhile, is batting .165 with no home runs and just seven runs. 

Rather than get into the minutiae of how the Brewers’ pitching staff — in particular an overpowering bullpen that is 3-0 with a 1.32 ERA in the NLCS — is neutralizing the Dodgers’ sluggers, third baseman Max Muncy decided not to overcomplicate the reasoning. 

“It’s a pretty simple answer,” Muncy said in a postgame press conference. “We’re playing like s—. They’re playing great. It’s as simple as that.”

The Brewers beat Skubal, the reigning American League Cy Young Award winner, in Game 1. They then blitzed Yoshinobu Yamamoto, the reigning World Series MVP, in Game 2. 

And in Game 3, as the series shifted to Los Angeles, where the Dodgers were 51-30 this season, the Brewers launched three home runs against two-time Cy Young Award winner Blake Snell, who had not allowed a single homer all season, to put the defending champions’ dreams of a three-peat on life support. 

“At the beginning of the year, we set out to do something historic,” Muncy said. “It looks like we’re going to have to make a little more history along the way if we want to accomplish that.” 

No team has won three straight World Series championships since the 1998-2000 New York Yankees. No National League team has ever accomplished the feat. 

If the Dodgers are going to be the first, they need to dig out of a hole only one MLB team has ever survived in a best-of-seven series. 

That team, the 2004 Boston Red Sox, stormed back against the Yankees in the ALCS en route to winning the World Series. They were sparked by Dave Roberts’ iconic steal in Game 4. The Dodgers’ manager hasn’t been tempted to pull out that game tape for his team. 

“I don’t know if some of those guys even know I played,” Roberts quipped before Game 3. “No, absolutely not. When times get tough, I just kind of go the other way and get more lax and have fun with the guys.”

That will be more of a challenge after Wednesday night’s demoralizing defeat.

In the sixth inning of Game 3, after five scoreless innings from Brewers starter Robert Gasser, the Dodgers finally made a dent in Milwaukee’s pristine bullpen. Three walks loaded the bases against reliever Abner Uribe to bring up Dodgers catcher Will Smith, who broke out of a 1-for-25 October funk with a go-ahead double. 

The euphoria for the 50,708 fans in attendance at Dodger Stadium was short-lived.

The Dodgers, who are 3-for-32 with runners in scoring position, failed to tack on any insurance runs after Smith’s extra-base hit. 

“To be able to win championships, you’ve got to win moments,” said Dodgers infielder Miguel Rojas. “And we haven’t been able to do that in this series.”

Two batters prior to Smith’s hit, Roberts pinch-hit Andy Pages — who had the team’s only two hits with runners in scoring position this October entering Game 3 — for Muncy, who struck out. 

The move signified the urgency Roberts felt with his offense struggling to deliver and Uribe on the ropes. 

After Smith’s double, Roberts could have left Rojas in to face Uribe with two runners in scoring position and one out. Instead, he turned to lefty Josue De Paula for another platoon advantage. Brewers manager Pat Murphy countered with southpaw DL Hall. Roberts then made another switch, bringing Hernández off the bench. Again, the result was a strikeout. Tommy Edman then went down looking to end the threat. 

The Dodgers’ nearly emptied the bench, going all in for that inning. 

“That was the game right there,” said Hernández, who has so often been the team’s hero during their October runs. “I have had two of the biggest at-bats in the series for our team, and I haven’t been able to come through.”

Their lead lasted minutes. 

“It’s really hard to put into words,” Rojas said of the emotional swing. 

Snell had retired 14 straight batters when he returned for the seventh inning. He walked leadoff hitter Andrew Vaughn, surrendered a go-ahead, two-run blast to Jake Bauers on the 11th pitch of another marathon at-bat from the Brewers slugger. Snell then hung his 101st pitch of the night in the zone to the next batter, Garrett Mitchell, who sent the pitch 428 feet to right field to make it back-to-back home runs.

Snell flipped his hands in the air after the Mitchell bomb, either in frustration or disbelief. It’s a reaction all too common for every opponent standing in Milwaukee’s way. 

Wednesday’s win marked the Brewers’ fifth comeback victory this postseason, tying the 1996 Yankees and 1980 Philadelphia Phillies for the most within a club’s first seven games in playoff history. 

It also put the Dodgers in unfamiliar territory. 

They triumphed in two elimination games in the 2024 NL Division Series against the San Diego Padres en route to winning the World Series. They did so again in last year’s Fall Classic against the Toronto Blue Jays. 

But they’ve never faced a challenge like this.

It’s the first time since the 2023 NLDS that the Dodgers have lost each of the first three games of a series. Unlike that best-of-five series against the Arizona Diamondbacks, this deficit has not yet ended their season. 

With the Red Sox trailing, Dave Roberts stole second base in the ninth inning of Game 4 of the 2004 ALCS with Boston also down 3-0 in the series; the Red Sox went on to win the game and the series. (Photo by Jed Jacobsohn/Getty Images)

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Other than Roberts’ Red Sox squad, the other 41 teams that have fallen behind 3-0 in a best-of-seven series have ultimately relented. Of those teams, 32 were swept.

The Dodgers will try to avoid being the 33rd. 

“When you have a chance to play another baseball game, you have a chance to save your season,” Rojas told me. “I know it’s really hard to bounce back from this one, but we have a bunch of guys here in this clubhouse that are not going to go down quiet.”

A half-hour after Wednesday’s game ended, Rojas walked across the Dodgers’ clubhouse and gave Hernández a hug. 

In less than 24 hours, their ride together could be over. 

“We’ve never been in this big of a hole, but we’ve had our backs against the wall plenty of times before, and we’ve come out of it,” Hernández said. “We’re just trying to do it one more time.”

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The Milwaukee Brewers visit the Los Angeles Dodgers on Thursday, Oct. 15, 2026 at 8 p.m. ET from UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium for Game 4 of the NLCS. Milwaukee leads the series 3-0 after a 6-2 win in Game 3.

Milwaukee has not named a Game 4 starter. David Hamilton leads the Brewers with a .429 batting average, Jackson Chourio leads with 7 RBI and William Contreras leads with 3 home runs. Jacob Misiorowski has 11 strikeouts this postseason.

Tyler Glasnow starts for the Dodgers and has a 1.93 ERA over 4.2 innings this postseason. Miguel Rojas leads Los Angeles with a .333 batting average, Freddie Freeman leads with 3 RBI and Max Muncy leads with 3 home runs. Blake Snell has 14 strikeouts.

Below, we’ll give you all the details you need to know about how to watch this game.

How to Watch Dodgers vs. Brewers NLCS Game 4

• When: Thursday, October 15, 2026 at 8:00 p.m. ET
• Where: UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles, CA
• TV: FS1
• Stream: Watch 3 days free on FOX One

Players To Watch

Muncy has a .619 slugging percentage this postseason, built on 3 home runs and 13 total bases in 21 at-bats. All 3 home runs came in the Division Series against Atlanta, on Oct. 3, Oct. 4 and Oct. 7.

He has no walks and 6 strikeouts in the postseason, and he is 1 for 9 with 4 strikeouts in the NLCS against Milwaukee, with that hit coming in Game 1. During the regular season he hit 29 home runs in 149 games.

Through the Division Series and three games of the NLCS, the Dodgers’ right fielder has reached base at a .407 clip with 7 hits, 4 walks and 2 stolen bases in 7 games. His .304 average includes a 2-for-4 night with a home run and 2 RBI against Atlanta on Oct. 3.

Over 154 regular-season games he hit .233 with 17 home runs and 70 RBI. Tucker is 2 for 8 with 3 walks in the NLCS, including a double in Game 2.

A 3-for-4 game with a home run and 3 RBI in Game 2 against the Dodgers on Oct. 12 is the high point of Contreras’ postseason so far. He also went 3 for 4 with a home run at San Diego on Oct. 6, then 2 for 5 the next day.

Contreras is batting .370 with a .452 on-base percentage and 3 home runs this postseason, and he has 5 strikeouts in 27 at-bats. He went 1 for 4 with 2 strikeouts in Game 3 at Los Angeles on Oct. 14.

Seven postseason RBI have come from Chourio, who has a hit in five of seven games and is batting .200 with a .400 slugging percentage. His 2-for-4 night in Game 1 of the NLCS was his only multi-hit game of the postseason.

The left fielder hit .291 with 25 home runs and 75 RBI during the regular season, with 152 hits in 127 games. He has 2 postseason home runs, in the Division Series opener on Oct. 3 and in Game 3 of the NLCS on Oct. 14.

Dodgers vs. Brewers Game 4 Odds

Learn more about the Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Milwaukee Brewers NLCS Game 3 and check the full schedule on FOX Sports!

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The Packers were written off early in the season. But after back-to-back wins, the latest coming over the Bears, are they officially back? Are the Jaguars just winning ugly games or are they a true Super Bowl contender?

In Philly, is Jalen Hurts the problem? Can we say the same about Bo Nix in Denver?

As usual, NFL fans brought their hot takes to our @NFLonFOX Instagram. I picked a handful of them to break down and render a verdict on whether you’re spot on or missing the mark. 

Let’s dive into this week’s takes: 

The Packers Are Back!
– @bdubs.17

Fact or Fiction: Fact

The Packers aren’t in the Super Bowl conversation yet, but they’re definitely back in NFC contention. 

In the past two weeks, the Packers have found themselves. They won close, holding on for a 17-14 victory over the Buccaneers in Week 4, and then overwhelmed their hated division-rival Bears en route to a three-score win in Week 5.

Green Bay arguably has the NFL’s most lethal passing attack right now. Against the Bears, Jordan Love completed six deep passes (20-plus air yards) for a career-high 258 yards, the second-most deep passing yards by a quarterback in a game over the past decade, according to Next Gen Stats. Wide receivers Christian Watson and Matthew Golden now lead all teammate duos with 871 combined receiving yards. They’re the only tandem to each have 375-plus receiving yards. 

Jordan Love had a career-high 258 yards on deep passes in a 31-7 beatdown of the Bears in Week 5. (Photo by Kevin Sabitus/Getty Images)

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Love’s pass protection remains an issue, but it’s gotten better. He’s been sacked only three times combined over the past three weeks and has faced a pressure rate under 36% in three of the last four weeks, per NGS. 

And how about that Packers defense? Not having to face injured Bears QB Caleb Williams helped, but recording five takeaways against Chicago is no small feat. In fact, it’s the most forced turnovers that Green Bay has had in a game since 2016. 

The run game is still a big issue. Plus, in addition to star edge Micah Parsons’ return still being up in the air, Green Bay has lost two key defenders — LB Edgerrin Cooper, DT Javon Hargrave — to season-ending Achilles injuries in back-to-back weeks. 

So, yes, the Packers are back — in the playoff hunt. Let’s see what they look like when Parsons gets back on the field. 

The Problem With The Eagles Is Jalen Hurts
– @damanklipz

Fact or Fiction: Fiction

Hurts has been a problem for the struggling Eagles, but he hasn’t been the problem. 

The team’s primary issue is collective offensive dysfunction. Philly is going through the hiccups of getting acclimated to first-year coordinator Sean Mannion’s scheme while simultaneously dealing with turnover on a once-strong offensive line and a myriad of issues at the offensive skill positions. 

Six-time Pro Bowl right tackle Lane Johnson suddenly retired in early October. Pro Bowl left guard Landon Dickerson is on IR. Center/guard Cam Jurgens was traded. No. 1 wide receiver DeVonta Smith has missed consecutive games with a hamstring injury. Oh, and the Eagles are down their top three running backs in an offense dependent on the rushing attack. 

Then on Thursday, the Eagles announced that Hurts will miss Sunday’s game against the Panthers due to a blood clot stemming from a calf injury sustained against the Rams in Week 4.

Maybe the calf injury has been an issue for Hurts the past couple of weeks, but as great of a clutch and playoff performer as he is, he’s far too inconsistent throughout games. His miss of a wide-open Dontayvion Wicks late in the third quarter of the Eagles’ heartbreaking two-point loss to the Jaguars in London was jarring — Wicks had a walk-in touchdown. 

Franchise quarterbacks are expected to lift their teams despite the issues around them. Hurts doesn’t do that enough given his pedigree (and his salary), seeming to be over-reliant on the star talent around him. 

But honestly, the Eagles have larger issues than Hurts. They have systemic issues. Philly needs to do a better job of creating an environment in which Hurts can succeed in spite of his limitations, and that starts with head coach Nick Sirianni.  

The Jaguars Are Super Bowl Contenders
– @gloriacastro05041943

Fact or Fiction: Fact

This shouldn’t be a controversial take. 

The Jaguars are easily one of the most complete teams in football. They’ve been getting great quarterback play from Trevor Lawrence. They’re deep at receiver. Their run game is competent. Their defense is superb. The team is well-coached. Those are all the main ingredients you look for in Super Bowl contenders. 

Yes, the Jags’ past two victories have been a grind. They had 26 total penalties and in Week 5 needed a late-game meltdown by the Eagles to win in London. But winning ugly is a skill, and it’s also too small of a sample size for it to be a reason for concern. 

With Jacksonville, we should be looking at larger trends, and many of them are overwhelmingly positive. Lawrence has been playing like an elite quarterback since last November, showing that his growth under second-year coach Liam Coen is very real. Former sixth-round pick Parker Washington continues to rise as a WR1. The Jaguars’ defense has been the league’s best against the run since the start of last year. After ranking second in takeaways in 2025, the Jags are tied for fifth this year (8). 

Don’t be surprised to see the Jaguars finish the season as the AFC’s No. 1 overall seed, either. At 4-1, Jacksonville is in a weak AFC South, and just four of its remaining 12 games are against teams with a winning record. 

The Jags are leaving some meat on the bone in the run game, and the health of left tackle Anton Harrison (knee) is something to watch. He could be out multiple weeks, if not months. But across the board, Jacksonville looks like the real deal. 

The Broncos May Have A QB Problem
– @co1e_w3

Fact or Fiction: Fact

Bo Nix is a competent quarterback who just seems to have limited upside. I think that’s one of the keys to Denver’s offensive problems. 

Head coach Sean Payton took back playcalling duties from offensive coordinator Davis Webb last week, only for the slow-start issue to show up once again in a one-score victory over the 0-5 Los Angeles Chargers. 

I think this is a reality with Nix that Payton has acknowledged, too. Denver had its highest called run rate of the season (49.0%) in Week 5, according to NFL Research, which could be interpreted as a lack of trust in the quarterback. 

Are Sean Payton and the Broncos losing faith in third-year Denver quarterback Bo Nix? (Photo by C. Morgan Engel/Getty Images)

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Even if you want to chalk that up as a game-specific strategy, Nix has still struggled when asked to push the ball down the field. He’s completed just 44.7% of his downfield passes, which is ninth-worst in the NFL, per Next Gen Stats. He’s also one of three qualified quarterbacks without a touchdown pass when facing pressure. He’s registered just a 35.4% completion rate and 4.1 yards per attempt against pressure, which rank third- and fifth-worst in the NFL, respectively. 

Since entering the NFL in 2024, Nix has shown an ability to deliver in clutch moments. He’s also elite at avoiding negative plays — he’s taken a sack or committed a turnover on just 5.8% of his dropbacks this season, the sixth-lowest rate in the NFL per NGS. But he doesn’t generate nearly enough explosive pass plays, despite now having a legit deep threat in receiver Jaylen Waddle, who has only one catch on two targets on 26 go routes. 

Once again, Nix has a mediocre run game around him this season — Denver averages just 86.2 rushing yards per game, which ranks 25th — but great quarterbacks can regularly find success in spite of that.

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In the 2024 and 2025 seasons, Indiana was a go-to for the public betting masses.

The Hoosiers were 9-4 straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) in 2024. Last year, while going a perfect 16-0 SU and winning the national title, Indiana went 10-6 ATS.

That included a 3-1 ATS mark in the College Football Playoff, with back-to-back blowouts of Alabama and Oregon.

But it doesn’t take much for the public to switch allegiances. 

Indiana is 6-0 SU this season, but just 1-5 ATS, which has the masses going the other way for Saturday’s huge Big Noon Kickoff vs. Ohio State.

“I think it’s results-based. Indiana was covering, and the Over was coming in every week,” Caesars Sports head of football trading Joey Feazel said. “But bettors are fickle. It’s what have you done for me lately?

“And Ohio State has done a lot for bettors lately.”

Bookmakers and sharp bettors serve up their insights on that massive matchup, along with Notre Dame vs. BYU and more in college football Week 7 odds.

This page may contain affiliate links to legal sports betting partners. If you sign up or place a wager, FOX Sports may be compensated. Read more about Sports Betting on FOX Sports.

  College Football Rocks On FOX

No. 5 Indiana got a huge scare last week at Nebraska, trailing 17-6 with 12 minutes remaining. But the Hoosiers put up two touchdowns in the next five minutes, then held on for a 20-17 victory.

Indiana was a 9.5-point favorite and failed to cover for the fifth time in six games.

Meanwhile, No. 4 Ohio State is 5-1 SU and a profitable 4-2 ATS. And the Buckeyes almost got to 5-1 ATS last week, routing Maryland 45-16, just shy of covering the hefty 31.5-point spread.

For Ohio State-Indiana, Caesars Sports opened the Buckeyes as 4-point road favorites, then backtracked to -3.5/-3 in short order on Sunday, with sharp play on Indiana +4. But the line then stabilized at Ohio State -3.5, where it remained on Wednesday night for Saturday’s noon ET kick on FOX.

“Indiana got a little bit of a scare last week. That was maybe a spot where they were looking ahead to this one,” Feazel said. “On the other side, Jeremiah Smith could be the No. 1 pick in the NFL Draft.

“Correlated with all that, it’s been one-way action. We’ve seen mostly Ohio State money come in.”

So far, it’s been one-way action on the Buckeyes ahead of their matchup with the Hoosiers (Getty Images).

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Feazel said there could be some interest in Indiana moneyline by game day, especially if the line returns to Buckeyes -4, making the Hoosiers’ moneyline price slightly more attractive than the current +147.

“But we still anticipate more action on the Buckeyes,” he said. “For sure, the need is gonna be Indiana to cover, and probably even to win, with the moneyline parlays going to Ohio State.

“Plus, we’ll need the Under for sure.”

The total toggled between 50.5/51.5 a couple times so far this week, and it was 50.5 on Wednesday night.

  On-Campus Sharp Side

Last week, college football betting expert Paul Stone had Houston +2.5 at Kansas State. Stone got there with ease, as the Cougars rolled to a 35-16 outright victory.

In college football Week 7 odds, Stone is already involved with the marquee matchup of Ohio State vs. Indiana. He expects points to be at a premium for the Big Ten showdown.

As such, he recommends Under 51 on the total. Stone pointed to a compelling statistic: Starting with Ohio State’s 14-7 win vs. Texas to open the 2025 season, the Under is 7-0 when the Buckeyes face a ranked opponent.

“Indiana couldn’t consistently run the ball last week at Nebraska. So I don’t see the Hoosiers having much success against Ohio State on the ground,” Stone said. “I think the Hoosiers are ultimately going to have to throw the ball, and I see the Buckeyes forcing Josh Hoover into some costly mistakes.”

  Notre Dame Big Game

No. 2 Notre Dame has been a minimum 21.5-point favorite in every game this season, going 6-0 SU/4-2 ATS. That’s finally not the case this week, but the Fighting Irish are still laying double digits at No. 8 BYU (5-0 SU and ATS)

Caesars opened the Irish as 11.5-point road favorites and quickly went to -10.5. That was due to sharp action on BYU +11.5 on Sunday.

Since then, the line has bounced between Notre Dame -10.5/-10 a couple times, and it was -10.5 on Wednesday night.

“This is an interesting one. It’s the first real test for Notre Dame. BYU is a tougher opponent,” Feazel said. “So we’re seeing what’s shaping up to be a classic Super Bowl middle game.

“The only need is Notre Dame to win by 1-10 points. People are gonna be betting Notre Dame on the spread or playing BYU moneyline.”

The big home underdog certainly has an attractive moneyline price, at +320. A $100 bet on a Cougars outright upset would profit $320 (total payout $420).

Can the Cougars keep it close against the highly-touted Irish? (Getty Images)

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Oh Say Can You SEC

Of course, there are key matchups in the SEC this week, just like almost every week. For starters, there’s Florida (4-2 SU/3-3 ATS) vs. No. 7 Texas (4-1 SU/1-4 ATS) at noon ET Saturday.

The Longhorns are coming off a 27-24 upset loss as 7.5-point favorites vs. Oklahoma. And just two weeks ago, the Gators were the flavor of the season and ranked No. 8, but are now unranked.

That’s what happens when you get whacked by Missouri and South Carolina on back-to-back weekends.

Caesars opened Texas as a 10-point home favorite vs. Florida. On Wednesday night, the Longhorns were up to -11 (-105).

“It’s a great matchup, but it’s overshadowed in this time slot by Ohio State-Indiana,” Feazel said. “Right now, we’re taking two-way action, with a little more on Texas. And I think that’s where the public is gonna go, treating this as a get-right game for Texas.

“We’re gonna need Florida to cover.”

At 3:30 p.m. ET Saturday, it’s No. 6 Alabama (5-1 SU/4-2 ATS) vs. No. 14 Tennessee (5-1 SU/3-3 ATS). Alabama opened -6.5 (-115) at Caesars and got to -8.5 early in the week, then went to -7.5 (-114) on Wednesday night.

Last week, the Crimson Tide fell to Georgia 20-17 as 2.5-point home favorites. But oddsmakers aren’t holding that against the Tide at all, and neither are bettors.

“That loss hasn’t stopped the public from coming in on Alabama. People are still on the Alabama train,” Feazel said.

A key factor to watch: Tennessee QB Faizon Brandon (shoulder) is questionable, after sitting out last week’s 24-17 win at Arkansas.

“We’ll see this number get to 10 if Brandon doesn’t play,” Feazel said. “We’ll need Tennessee to hang around in this game.”

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Week 6 saw emotional upset wins for Kentucky and UCLA, and Alabama suffered its first at-home regular season defeat to Georgia since 2007. Now, Week 7 is full of make-or-break conference matchups. 

The Crimson Tide hit the road to face Tennessee for its annual Third Saturday in October contest, in hopes of bouncing back from the loss to the Bulldogs. Ole Miss will host Missouri for a ranked contest and a homecoming for Tigers quarterback Austin Simmons, in what should be an offensive showdown. 

But can UCLA keep its momentum as it returns home to face a red-hot Wisconsin team, and can the Oklahoma Sooners take its Red River win into another conference W over Will Stein and Kentucky? 

FOX Sports’ Joel Klatt has made his Week 7 picks for those games and more.

  Notre Dame 28, BYU 17

(Photo by James Black/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

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Spread: Notre Dame -10.5
Moneyline: Notre Dame -395, BYU +310

Klatt’s thoughts: “Notre Dame at BYU. Both undefeated. Notre Dame is favored by 10.5. That should tell you a lot. Top-10 game in Provo, where BYU has won 14 of its last 15. It’s a really good home field advantage for BYU. Because their home crowd, their fan base in general, is awesome … Notre Dame has gotten quietly better. Quietly, because all of us just want to trash their schedule. And I get it. I think that that’s on the table. You can trash their schedule, it hasn’t been great. But they’ve dominated that schedule. And every single week, what do we see? They get better running the football. That should be scary to everybody. Quarterback CJ Carr is an elite player. I think he’s playing at a very high level. I think he’s a day-one draft pick, there’s no doubt. We know that they have an elite defense. They have the No. 1 defense in America right now. 

“BYU, I think they’re going to be able to ride the emotional crowd early in the game. Think Ole Miss vs. LSU … So they’re going to have to ride that. But they don’t have LJ Martin on offense, and they need him, they need him for balance. Bear Bachmeier played terrific last week; 300 passing yards, 100 rushing yards. But can he do that against Notre Dame? I have my questions about that. BYU has struggled in this type of matchup. This is exactly where they fell apart last year. I think it will be difficult for BYU. I think the Irish have a chip on their shoulder. [Last year] they lost those first two games. They were 10-2. Did not make the playoffs. And this is their first opportunity to really get out there and prove it. I think they’ll get a different version of Notre Dame. 

“Notre Dame covers, 28-17. I’m going to take the Irish.”

Klatt’s straight-up pick: Notre Dame
Klatt’s pick against the spread: Notre Dame -10.5

  Alabama 31, Tennessee 17

(Photo by Butch Dill/Getty Images)

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Spread: Alabama -8.5
Moneyline: Alabama -310, Tennessee +250

Klatt’s thoughts: “Alabama at Tennessee. This is going to be a great game. Alabama’s favored by 8.5 on the road. I’m really fascinated to see how Alabama bounces back and how they play. (And see) what sense of urgency they have, what physicality they have up front after Saturday night … If you peel it back, what did you see on Saturday night? I saw a team that was far better on the line of scrimmage than they were a year ago. Alabama would get into the game and get decimated trying to protect the quarterback … Now the question is, can you maintain that level? … the coaches that can get their players to understand that the only thing they have total control over is their own effort level, those are the teams that can put their best effort forward every week… My question for Alabama is, can they be consistent? … I do believe in Keelon Russell. 

“I don’t like the quarterback situation for the Vols. George MacIntyre is going to make his second start. They struggled through the Arkansas game … they trailed going into the fourth. I don’t love that. I do like DeSean Bishop, I think he’s one of the best backs in the SEC. I think he’s explosive, he’s got to be huge in this game. You’ve got to be able to run the ball to protect the quarterback. Because if they don’t, it’s going to be a sack fest for Alabama … It’ll be loud, it’ll be difficult for Alabama. But I trust what I’ve seen from Alabama … I don’t see Tennessee lighting up the scoreboard. 

“I’ve got Alabama 31-17 covering the 8.5.”

Klatt’s straight-up pick: Alabama
Klatt’s pick against the spread: Alabama -8.5

  Oklahoma State 35, Houston 28

(Photo by WJ/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

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Spread: Houston -4.5
Moneyline: Houston -192, Oklahoma State +160

Klatt’s thoughts: “No. 18 at No. 20. Houston is favored by 4.5 at home over Oklahoma State. Houston has had a really solid start to the year. … [Oklahoma State’s] Eric Morris brought a ton of players from North Texas, and it’s working. … Big fan of QB Drew Mestemaker. I think he’s a day-one NFL Draft pick. I think he’s one of the better players in college football. I think he plays at an elite level. He throws it for over 300 yards a game. They can run it with Caleb Hawkins. And they’ve got a solid slot receiver in Wyatt Young. This is one of the best offenses in college football … I think it’s a bad matchup for Houston. 

“I like what Willie Fritz is doing. QB Conner Weigman has been good. Like I said, I like Houston. I just like Oklahoma State more. And you’re telling me I can take the 4.5? I’m gonna take it. Houston’s pass defense is not where it needs to be to face Oklahoma State. 

“I’m going to take Oklahoma State 35-28. I’ll take that 4.5 in that game on the road.”

Klatt’s straight-up pick: Oklahoma State
Klatt’s pick against the spread: Oklahoma State +4.5

  Missouri 27, Ole Miss 24

(Photo by Jay Biggerstaff/Getty Images)

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Spread: Ole Miss -6.5
Moneyline: Ole Miss -225, Missouri +185

Klatt’s thoughts: “Missouri at Ole Miss. Ole Miss is favored by 6.5 at home. Austin Simmons has a bit of a homecoming there, he’s going back to Ole Miss. He’s been terrific for Missouri. Their last couple of games they have played so well and they have pounded the rock. Even without Ahmad Hardy. I love Ole Miss, and Trinidad Chambliss. I don’t love Ole Miss’ defense. That’s a problem in this one, because Missouri seems to have that thing that travels, which is physicality and the run game. Running back Jamal Roberts has been outstanding. Missouri in their last two ball games has run it for 220 against Florida and 250 against Texas A&M. Have you seen Ole Miss’ defense? Ole Miss’ run defense is 111th in the country. This is not a very good defense. So, is Missouri going to be able to move the ball? Yes. And they will be able to score. And Austin Simmons is playing well. There’s no doubt in my mind. 

“The question for Ole Miss becomes is Chambliss Superman? I think he’s gotta be in this game. I know Kewan Lacy came back, but I don’t think he’s 100% … We’ll see what he’s able to do. Chambliss is so good. I love Chambliss. But man, this is going to be difficult, even at home. 6.5 is too many. I’ve got to take the 6.5 the way Missouri is playing. I don’t love Ole Miss’ defense. In particular their inability to stop the run. 

“Give me Missouri in this game, maybe even in a tight one, 27-24.”

Klatt’s straight-up pick: Missouri
Klatt’s pick against the spread: Missouri +6.5

  Michigan 20, Penn State 13

(Photo by Bailey Hillesheim/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

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Spread: Michigan -6.5
Moneyline: Michigan -245, Penn State +200

Klatt’s thoughts: “How about Penn State at Michigan? Guys. Whoever loses this game … Yikes. This is an interesting game, man. I worry about whoever loses this game. Anybody else? … Penn State 3-3. Michigan 3-2. Two teams that have underperformed. They’re below expectations. What do we know about this game? What is the best element of this game? It’s the Michigan defense. And they’re the best thing in this game by a wide margin. And because they’ve got the best unit in this game, they can try and build into points. Everyone’s going to be watching this offense. I get it. All eyes are on Jason Beck. All eyes are on Bryce Underwood 

“Meanwhile, Penn State’s offense does not do anything. They don’t have guys that can get open. I worry about how many points they can score. I know everyone is going to be worried about Michigan’s offense, but the key to this game is that Michigan’s defense is an elite defense. I look at them to control the game. I find it difficult to see how Penn State gets even 13 points. 

“I’m going to take Michigan. Low-scoring game. 20-13. Michigan covers the 6.5”

Klatt’s straight-up pick: Michigan
Klatt’s pick against the spread: Michigan -6.5

  Wisconsin 20, UCLA 17

(Photo by Ross Harried/NurPhoto via Getty Images)

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Spread: UCLA -2.5
Moneyline: UCLA -142, Wisconsin +120

Klatt’s thoughts: “Wisconsin at UCLA. UCLA is only favored by 2.5. Interesting, right? This is a sneaky big game. If you actually look at the odds to win the Big Ten … you know who has the third-best odds [after Indiana and Ohio State]? UCLA. Do you know who has the fifth-best odds to win the Big Ten? Wisconsin. It’s surprising to some people. This UCLA team has been hearing their praises. Everyone’s talking about them. And then they go out the next week and fall flat. I hope that doesn’t happen to UCLA. Ty Dieffenbach, their backup quarterback, now Wisconsin is going to be able to scheme for him. I think he was fine out there, he’s a backup quarterback. And he’s a backup quarterback to a guy in Nico Iamaleava who was not lighting it up. This team is about running the football. And they’re about Wayne Knight. 

“And now you look up, and you’re going to face this Wisconsin team. I get it, a lot of you are rolling your eyes when I talk about Wisconsin. I’m just telling you, they are vastly improved from the team we even saw late last year. In particular on the defensive side. They have a pretty darn good defense. Wisconsin’s defense is fifth in the country in yards per play defense. That’s nothing to scoff at … Nobody wants to talk about them. They are very good on the defensive side. This is what all you Badgers were getting when you hired Luke Fickell.

“I don’t love this matchup for UCLA because of this Wisconsin defense. I’ll take the 2.5. Wisconsin wins the game 20-17.”

Klatt’s straight-up pick: Wisconsin
Klatt’s pick against the spread: Wisconsin +2.5

  Oklahoma 24, Kentucky 17

(Photo by Gunnar Word/Getty Images)

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Spread: Oklahoma -6.5
Moneyline: Oklahoma -345, Kentucky +275

Klatt’s thoughts: “Oklahoma’s favored by 6.5. Look at that. My question for Kentucky is, does the clock strike midnight on this Kentucky team? … Can you play three straight emotional games? Or is OU going to come back and lay an egg after its win at Red River? I’m all over the map on this game. I love Will Stein. I think QB Kenny Minchey has been outstanding. There’s no doubt. I do not love Kentucky’s defense. I love Oklahoma’s defense. I don’t love Oklahoma’s offense … Oklahoma’s offense, I thought, got better. I know that’s hard to say.  

“Kentucky’s incredible run comes to an end on the road. I think OU wins this game 24-17. OU covers the 6.5.”

Klatt’s straight-up pick: Oklahoma
Klatt’s pick against the spread: Oklahoma -6.5

CFB Related Stories

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The Seattle Seahawks visit the Denver Broncos on Thursday, Oct. 15, 2026 at 8:15 p.m. ET from Empower Field at Mile High in Denver.

Both teams are 3-2. Seattle lost 32-29 to San Francisco in Week 5, and Denver beat the Chargers on the road. Seattle’s Jaxon Smith-Njigba leads the NFL with 583 receiving yards, and the Seahawks convert 29.8 percent of their third downs, among the bottom five in the league. Denver converts 33.8 percent, among the bottom 10.

The Seahawks are 3-point favorites over the Broncos, with a total of 41.5 and a moneyline of -155 for the Seahawks and +130 for the Broncos.

Below, we’ll give you all the details you need to know about how to watch this game.

How to Watch Seahawks vs. Broncos

• When: Thursday, October 15, 2026 at 8:15 p.m. ET
• Where: Empower Field at Mile High, Denver, CO
• Stream: Amazon Prime Video
• Follow Live: FOX Sports

Players To Watch

Seattle converts just 29.8 percent of its third downs, among the bottom five in the NFL, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba is the constant. He leads the league with 583 receiving yards and seven touchdowns, and he has caught at least five passes in all five games, including five for 102 yards and a touchdown against San Francisco on Oct. 11.

Denver allows 202.2 passing yards per game, and Smith-Njigba drew 14 targets in his 10-catch, 128-yard, two-touchdown game at Washington on Sept. 27. An offense that stalls on third down needs his targets to supply the yards it is not gaining on schedule.

Seattle’s loss to San Francisco on Oct. 11 came with 2 Sam Darnold interceptions, on a day he completed 18 of 29 passes for 195 yards and a touchdown. His season line is 755 passing yards, seven touchdowns and five interceptions, including 379 yards and four touchdowns at Washington on Sept. 27.

Denver has 13.0 sacks, including 4.0 from Zach Allen, and a pass rush that gets home punishes mistakes. A repeat of Darnold’s two giveaways against the 49ers costs the Seahawks possessions they cannot spare.

Two catches for 18 yards and a touchdown in the win at the Chargers on Oct. 11 is the latest line for Courtland Sutton, who has caught 11 of 25 targets for 104 yards and one touchdown through five games. His longest catch of the season is 27 yards, against the Rams on Sept. 27.

Seattle allows 150.8 passing yards per game and has seven interceptions, so every target to Sutton carries risk as well as reward. Denver converts 33.8 percent of its third downs, among the bottom 10 in the NFL, and the Broncos need his targets to become first downs.

Seahawks vs. Broncos Odds

Learn more about the Seattle Seahawks vs. Denver Broncos game and check the full schedule on FOX Sports!

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There’s no way of truly knowing that Oregon would lose to two teams that finished 3-9 last season (Oklahoma State and UCLA) before the second weekend of October ended. No one predicted the Kentucky Wildcats to be who we all thought LSU and Lane Kiffin would be, or that Texas A&M would regress from a College Football Playoff team a year ago to fall toward the bottom of the SEC. 

This is why we play the games, and this is why the sport is so beloved. At its best, unpredictability is college football’s greatest asset, and my rankings are always a reflection of that asset. 

Admitting when I was wrong — even in a business where that’s half the job — isn’t fun. I like winning, and I hate losing. 

However, headed into Week 7 action, it’s useful to look back at my Ultimate 138 rankings — reflected below — and see what teams have over-performed against my expectations and which teams have underperformed to such a degree that I simply have to document their midseason progress here.

In both good and bad ways, some teams really surprised me — and probably you too. For others, my preseason rankings were spot on. Let’s get into it.

138.

Quarterback William “Pop” Watson III leads the Mid-American Conference with a 74% completion percentage. (Photo by Mark Smith/ISI Photos/ISI Photos via Getty Images)

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My latest top 25: NR
Latest AP top 25: NR
Record entering Week 7: 4-2

The Minutemen pulled off an upset win against a Power Four team as a 30-point underdog on the road to snap a 16-game losing streak, putting an end to their residency at the absolute bottom of the 138-team Football Subdivision. 

Prior to their 37-21 victory against Rutgers, UMass had not enjoyed a winning record for 1,104 days. Halfway through 2026, the Minutemen are 4-2 — two wins from going bowling — behind the arm and legs of quarterback Williams “Pop” Watson III. Watson has accounted for more than 1,000 yards of offense with 12 total touchdowns and just two interceptions.

Next game: At Buffalo

103.

James Madison coach Billy Napier hasn’t lost a game in the Sun Belt conference since he was the coach at Louisiana in 2020. (Photo by Lee Coleman/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

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My latest top 25: No. 25
Latest AP top 25: NR
Record entering Week 7: 6-0

Something must be in the water in Harrisonburg, Virginia. Must be. How else can we account for former Florida coach Billy Napier beginning this season 6-0 as head coach at James Madison after being fired midseason last year? 

In fact, Napier is one of three former or current head coaches at JMU to begin the season undefeated. The others? Indiana coach Curt Cignetti (6-0) and UCLA coach Bob Chesney (5-0) combine with Napier to make the tally 17-0.

JMU is set to leave the Sun Belt in 2027 and join the American Conference, which means one of the great runs in Sun Belt history will come to an end, as well as perhaps Napier’s run of 18-straight wins against Sun Belt opponents. Dating back to his tenure as head coach at Louisiana, he’s 26-3 against Sun Belt competition.

Next game: vs. Georgia State

54.

Kentucky coach Will Stein has authored consecutive overtime victories.(Photo by Adam Davis/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

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My latest top 25: No. 8
Latest AP top 25: No. 15
Record entering Week 7: 5-1

Not only has Will Stein turned Kentucky into a College Football Playoff team through six games, but the Wildcats also have led at least once in every game they’ve played. They lost to Alabama only after blowing a double-digit lead, and they proved themselves to be one of the sport’s most clutch teams with back-to-back wins in overtime against South Carolina and LSU. 

With Tennessee and Missouri left as Kentucky’s only remaining ranked opponents, these Wildcats could be eyeing a double-digit win season. Or at least a finishing record that comfortably puts them among the sports top-50 teams.

Next game: At Oklahoma

40.

Quarterback Aidan Chiles threw for 272 yards and three touchdowns in Northwestern’s win over Ball State last week. (Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images)

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My latest top 25: No. 24
Latest AP top 25: No. 25
Record entering Week 7: 4-1

With a change of scenery for the third time in his career, a new offensive coordinator and offensive formations fit for the Canadian Football League, quarterback Aidan Chiles has transformed into a capable field general. He has completed 71.4% of his passing attempts for an average of 234.4 passing yards per game and led the Wildcats to a 4-1 start with their only loss coming by a single score, on the road to undefeated Indiana. Who saw this Northwestern team coming?

Even with a rough road ahead at Oregon, against Iowa and at Ohio State, coach David Braun has his team in a better position than many expected midway through the season.

Next game: At Michigan State

15.

Kyle Whittingham is 3-2 through five games of his tenure as Michigan head football coach. (Photo by Gregory Shamus/Getty Images)

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My latest top 25: NR
Latest AP top 25: NR
Record entering Week 7: 3-2

The addition of former Utah offensive coordinator Jason Beck to the Michigan offensive staff was supposed to help star quarterback Bryce Underwood settle into an offense that suits his strengths as a dual-threat with a devastating rushing attack. Instead, Underwood looks even more lost in the passing game this year than last. 

The Wolverines have lost four of their last seven games dating back to their 27-9 loss to Ohio State in 2025. They’ve also lost two games before the third week in October for three years in a row. 

Perhaps because head coach Kyle Whittingham was so good at Utah, I — we — expected him to flip the Wolverines into a CFP team again in Year 1. Instead, Whittingham has already acknowledged this gig, his most prestigious, is also the toughest he’s ever had, and, looking at the second half of the schedule — Indiana, Oregon, UCLA and the Buckeyes still to play — it’s about to get a whole tougher.

Next game: vs. Penn State

10.

John Mateer threw for a season-low 155 passing yards against No. 1 Texas, but the Sooners outlasted the Longhorns for an upset victory. (Photo by Stacy Revere/Getty Images)

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My latest top 25: No. 23
Latest AP top 25: NR
Record entering Week 7: 3-2

The Sooners have been disappointing offensively, and the promised development of quarterback John Mateer turned out to be as unreal as the preseason top-10 ranking I assigned them. He’s fumbled away the ball multiple times, thrown four interceptions in five games and managed just three passing touchdowns against Power Four teams. 

While Mateer has been bad and the offense has gotten worse since last year, the Oklahoma defense has played at a championship level through the first half of the year. The Sooners’ win against previously No. 1-ranked Texas with just a single offensive score (and no turnovers) highlighted just how good Venables’ defensive unit is this season with safety Peyton Bowen playing at an All-American level.

Next game: vs. Kentucky

7.

Miami quarterback Darian Mensah leads the nation, completing 84% of his passing attempts, and leads the ACC with 15 passing touchdowns. (Photo by David Jensen/Getty Images)

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My latest top 25: No. 3
Latest AP top 25: No. 3
Record entering Week 7: 5-0

Aside from Georgia, Miami is the only program in the country that has not shown any flaws. 

The Hurricanes play explosive football on offense, and quarterback Darian Mensah has completed 84.2% of his passes. He’s thrown 15 touchdowns and just 21 incompletions. He’s not only accurate, but the ‘Canes receiving corps also has the surest hands in the sport, with sophomore Malachi Toney leading that wide receiver room with 39 catches for 604 yards and six touchdowns. 

What remains is how good —or bad — the Canes look against a program with a ranking next to their name on the score bug.

Next game: vs. Florida State

3.

Kirby Smart and Georgia got their revenge against Alabama in Tuscaloosa in a wild Week 6 matchup. (Photo by Jeff Robinson/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

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My latest top 25: No. 1
Latest AP top 25: No. 1
Record entering Week 7: 6-0

Even in an age when the talent gap across the sport is shrinking, Kirby Smart has managed to keep a roster and a style of play offensively and defensively that feels straight out of the BCS era. Georgia runs the ball and plays defense. 

Its best player offensively is debatable — as it is most every year the Dawgs have played for championships. But quarterback Gunner Stockon gets the nod toward “star” because someone has to be. He’s played well, completing 76.6% of his passes with 14 touchdowns and just two interceptions. But he’s also had the help of a dominant rushing attack and defense that is as hard to move as a gorilla sitting on your chest. 

Headed into Week 7, Georgia giving up just 13.4 points per game — good enough for second-best in the country.

Next game: vs. Auburn

2.

Ohio State wide receiver Jeremiah Smith is two catches away from breaking the Big Ten touchdown receptions record. (Photo by Ben Jackson/Getty Images)

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My latest top 25: No. 5
Latest AP top 25: No. 4
Record entering Week 7: 5-1

Jeremiah Smith is absurd — defined on first reference by Merriam and Webster as “ridiculously unreasonable, unsound, or incongruous.” Anyone who says they predicted he would be this productive, this unguardable, in Year 3 wasn’t so much lying as they were predicting the coming of a once-in-a-lifetime player’s ascension with scary specificity.

Realize that we’re only halfway through the season, and he’s already done a full season’s worth of damage by most teams’ standards: 48 catches for 916 yards with 11 touchdowns. It’s not hard to forecast Smith catching more than 100 balls for more than 2,000 yards with more than 20 receiving touchdowns this season. As I said, absurd.

Ohio State has shown flaws, sure. But it’s undoubtedly a top-5 team still. 

Next game: At Indiana

1.

Josh Hoover has thrown for 1,364 yards, 17 touchdowns and zero interceptions through his first six games as Indiana’s quarterback. (Photo by Steven Branscombe/Getty Images)

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My latest top 25: No. 7
Latest AP top 25: No. 5
Record entering Week 7: 6-0

Yes, the Hoosiers have been in some close games against unranked opponents. But one of those teams — Northwestern — is ranked now and, combined with last week’s opponent Nebraska, those opponents are 9-2.

One of the reasons that the Hoosiers have extended their winning streak to 22-straight games and are bowl-eligible before Halloween for the third year in a row is quarterback Josh Hoover. The man who threw 33 interceptions in 35 games at TCU hasn’t thrown any at Indiana. His touchdown-to-interception ratio is 17-0. And Indiana is still special on the edge defensively. Edge rusher Tobi Osunsanmi has recorded 9.5 tackles for loss, including five sacks.

Next game: vs. Ohio State

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The Philadelphia Eagles revealed that quarterback Jalen Hurts has been dealing with a calf injury, which involves a blood clot.

Originally, per the team, Hurts informed the Eagles’ training staff that he was cleated in the calf during the team’s Week 4 game against the Los Angeles Rams, with an ultrasound later showing a superficial blood clot, but the quarterback was cleared to play in their Week 5 game against the Jacksonville Jaguars in London.

“Jalen played without limitation in the game Sunday [Week 5 against the Jaguars], received treatment on Monday and Tuesday, and practiced in full on Wednesday, as reflected in the practice report. Throughout our time in London and this week, we have remained in communication with the league office regarding the matter. On Wednesday night, a follow-up ultrasound revealed movement in the small blood clot,” the Eagles said in a statement on Thursday afternoon. 

“Jalen will be out for Sunday’s game vs. the [Carolina] Panthers as we determine the appropriate course of treatment. His health and safety are our highest priority.”

With Hurts out, Philadelphia’s quarterback room includes the third-year Tanner McKee, who has made two NFL starts, and rookie Cole Payton.

Through five games, Hurts, a three-time Pro Bowler, has totaled 933 passing yards, eight passing touchdowns, three interceptions and an 84.7 passer rating, while completing 57.8% of his passes.

Hurts’ passer rating and completion percentage are each career lows since becoming the Eagles’ full-time quarterback in 2021. He has also rushed for 107 yards and one touchdown.

After winning their first two games of the season against the Washington Commanders and Tennessee Titans, the Eagles have lost three consecutive games to the Chicago Bears, Rams and Jaguars. Philadelphia’s loss to Jacksonville came via a 57-yard field goal as time expired from Jaguars kicker Cam Little.

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If you have ever opened a sportsbook app and wondered what the + and – mean in betting, the short answer is simple: a minus sign marks the favorite and tells you how much you need to risk to win $100, while a plus sign marks the underdog and tells you how much you win on a $100 bet.

Those two signs, plus the number next to them, carry everything you need to know about a bet: who the sportsbook expects to win, how much you get paid, and how likely the outcome is according to the price.

This guide walks through how to read American odds step by step, with worked payout examples, the implied probability formula, decimal and fractional conversions, and the common spots where the signs trip up new bettors.

This page may contain affiliate links to legal sports betting partners. If you sign up or place a wager, FOX Sports may be compensated. Read more about Sports Betting on FOX Sports.

What Are Betting Odds?

Betting odds are the price of a bet. They do two jobs at once: they show how likely a sportsbook thinks an outcome is, and they show how much you will be paid if that outcome happens.

U.S. sportsbooks display odds in the American format by default, using a plus or minus sign followed by a number built around a $100 baseline. Most apps also let you switch to decimal or fractional odds in settings, which is covered further down.

What Do the + and – Mean in Betting?

The sign in front of the number is the fastest read on any betting board. Here is the one-line version of each:

• Minus sign (-): The favorite. The number is how much you must bet to win $100 in profit.
• Plus sign (+): The underdog. The number is how much profit you win on a $100 bet.
• +100 (even money): Neither side is favored on price. A $100 bet wins $100.

You do not need to bet $100. The $100 is just the reference point, and every payout scales up or down from there.

Minus Odds Explained (The Favorite)

Negative odds show the cost of winning $100. The bigger the number after the minus sign, the bigger the favorite and the less you win relative to your stake.

• Chiefs -150: Bet $150 to win $100 in profit. A winning ticket returns $250 total ($150 stake plus $100 profit).
• Chiefs -150 with a $10 bet: Win $6.67 in profit, $16.67 total return.
• Heavy favorite at -400: Bet $400 to win $100. A $20 bet wins just $5.

Plus Odds Explained (The Underdog)

Positive odds show the profit on a $100 bet. The bigger the number after the plus sign, the bigger the underdog and the bigger the potential payout.

• Raiders +200: A $100 bet wins $200 in profit. A winning ticket returns $300 total.
• Raiders +200 with a $10 bet: Win $20 in profit, $30 total return.
• Long shot at +800: A $10 bet wins $80, which is common pricing in futures markets.

What Does -110 Mean in Betting?

You will see -110 more than any other price, especially on point spreads and totals. It means you bet $110 to win $100, or $11 to win $10.

When both sides of a bet are listed at -110, the sportsbook sees the matchup as a coin flip. The extra $10 per $100 is the sportsbook’s built-in commission, known as the vig or juice, explained in more detail below.

How to Read a Full Betting Line

A typical NFL game in a sportsbook app shows three markets side by side: the point spread, the moneyline and the total. Here is how one game would look:

Team	Spread	Moneyline	Total
Philadelphia Eagles	-3.5 (-110)	-180	O 47.5 (-110)
New York Giants	+3.5 (-110)	+150	U 47.5 (-110)

Read across each row and every plus or minus sign answers a different question. The sections below break down each column.

Moneyline

The moneyline is a straight bet on who wins the game. The Eagles at -180 are favored, so a $180 bet wins $100. The Giants at +150 are the underdog, so a $100 bet wins $150.

For a full walkthrough of this bet type, see our guide on how to bet moneylines.

Point Spread

On the spread, the sign means something different: it shows points, not payout. The Eagles at -3.5 must win by 4 or more for the bet to cash. The Giants at +3.5 cash if they win outright or lose by 3 or fewer.

The number in parentheses, -110 on both sides here, is the price. This is the most common point of confusion for new bettors, so always check whether a minus sign is attached to points or to odds.

Totals (Over/Under)

The total is a bet on combined points scored by both teams. Over 47.5 wins if the teams combine for 48 or more, and under 47.5 wins at 47 or fewer. Both sides are priced at -110 here. Our over/under betting guide covers totals in more depth.

Run Lines, Puck Lines and Spreads in Other Sports

Baseball and hockey use a fixed spread of 1.5 runs or goals, so the price does more of the work. A favorite on the MLB run line at -1.5 can carry plus odds, like -1.5 (+130), because winning by two or more is far from guaranteed. That is why a plus sign does not always mean underdog, and a minus sign does not always mean favorite, outside of the moneyline.

How to Calculate Payouts From Plus and Minus Odds

You can work out any payout with two simple formulas. Profit is what you win on top of your stake, and the total return is profit plus your original bet.

• Minus odds: Profit = Stake x (100 / Odds). Example: $50 on -125 = 50 x (100 / 125) = $40 profit, $90 total return.
• Plus odds: Profit = Stake x (Odds / 100). Example: $25 on +240 = 25 x 2.4 = $60 profit, $85 total return.

Quick reference for a $100 bet:

Every sportsbook bet slip calculates this automatically before you confirm, so use these formulas to check value rather than to do mental math at the window.

American Odds	Profit on $100	Total Return
-300	$33.33	$133.33
-200	$50.00	$150.00
-150	$66.67	$166.67
-110	$90.91	$190.91
+100	$100.00	$200.00
+150	$150.00	$250.00
+200	$200.00	$300.00
+500	$500.00	$600.00

How to Convert Odds to Implied Probability

Implied probability turns the odds into the percentage chance the price suggests. It is the single most useful skill for judging whether a bet is worth making.

• Minus odds: Odds / (Odds + 100). Example: -150 = 150 / 250 = 60 percent.
• Plus odds: 100 / (Odds + 100). Example: +200 = 100 / 300 = 33.3 percent.

If you think a team wins more often than its implied probability, the bet has value. If you think it wins less often, the price is too short.

American Odds	Implied Probability
-300	75.0 percent
-200	66.7 percent
-150	60.0 percent
-110	52.4 percent
+100	50.0 percent
+150	40.0 percent
+200	33.3 percent
+500	16.7 percent

Why the Percentages Add Up to More Than 100

Add up both sides of a -110 and -110 spread, and you get 104.8 percent, not 100. In the Eagles and Giants moneyline above, -180 (64.3 percent) plus +150 (40.0 percent) equals 104.3 percent.

That extra is the vig, the sportsbook’s margin. It means you need to win about 52.4 percent of your -110 bets just to break even, which is why comparing prices across sportsbooks matters.

American vs Decimal vs Fractional Odds

The same price can be shown three ways. American odds are standard in the U.S., decimal odds are common in Europe, Canada and Australia, and fractional odds are traditional in the UK and Ireland, especially for horse racing.

• Decimal odds: Show the total return per $1 bet, stake included. Odds of 2.50 mean a $10 bet returns $25 ($15 profit).
• Fractional odds: Show profit relative to stake. Odds of 3/2 mean you win $3 for every $2 bet.

American	Decimal	Fractional	Implied Probability
-200	1.50	1/2	66.7 percent
-150	1.67	2/3	60.0 percent
-110	1.91	10/11	52.4 percent
+100	2.00	1/1 (evens)	50.0 percent
+150	2.50	3/2	40.0 percent
+200	3.00	2/1	33.3 percent
+500	6.00	5/1	16.7 percent

How to Convert American Odds to Decimal

• Plus odds: (Odds / 100) + 1. Example: +150 = 1.5 + 1 = 2.50.
• Minus odds: (100 / Odds) + 1. Example: -150 = 0.667 + 1 = 1.67.

How Odds Work on Parlays, Props and Futures

Parlays

A parlay combines multiple bets into one ticket, and the odds multiply. Two legs at -110 each converts to decimal 1.91 x 1.91, which pays roughly +264. A $10 two-leg parlay at those prices returns about $36.45. Learn more in our parlay betting guide, or see how odds stack within one game in our same-game parlay guide.

Player Props

Props are priced just like sides and totals. A quarterback over 249.5 passing yards at -115 means you bet $115 to win $100. Our prop betting guide explains how to find value in player markets.

Futures

Futures, like Super Bowl or World Series winners, usually carry big plus numbers because so many teams are in the field. A team at +800 pays $80 on a $10 bet and carries an implied probability of 11.1 percent. See our futures betting guide for season-long strategy.

Live Betting

In-game odds update after every play. A pregame +200 underdog that takes an early lead might flip to a minus price within minutes. Read our live betting guide before betting in-game.

Why Betting Odds Change

Odds are not fixed once posted. Sportsbooks adjust them for two main reasons:

• New information: Injuries, lineup changes, weather and starting pitcher news can shift a line quickly.
• Betting action: Heavy money on one side pushes its price shorter to attract bets on the other side.

Your price locks in when you place the bet, so a line that moves after you bet does not change your payout. Odds also differ slightly from one sportsbook to the next, which is why serious bettors compare apps. Our best betting apps guide ranks the top options.

Reading Odds by Sport

The plus and minus logic is the same everywhere, but each sport has quirks worth knowing:

• NFL: Most spreads and totals sit at -110, and key numbers like 3 and 7 drive spread pricing. See our best NFL betting sites.
• NBA: Spreads are larger and totals often land above 220 points. See our best NBA betting sites.
• MLB: The moneyline is the main market, and run lines are fixed at 1.5. See our best MLB betting sites.
• NHL: Puck lines are fixed at 1.5 goals and moneylines are usually tighter. See our best NHL betting sites.
• Golf and UFC: Golf outrights carry huge plus numbers like +1500 or more, while UFC fights are moneyline-driven. See our best golf betting sites and best UFC betting sites.

How to Place a Bet Using Plus and Minus Odds

1. Sign up with a legal sportsbook in your state. Check our sportsbook promos page for current welcome offers before you register.
2. Pick a game and a market: moneyline, spread, total or prop.
3. Check the sign and number. Minus means you risk more than you win, plus means you win more than you risk.
4. Tap the odds to add the selection to your bet slip.
5. Enter your stake. The slip shows your potential payout, so confirm it matches your own math.
6. Place the bet and track it in your open bets.

New users can also stretch a first bet with offers like the FanDuel promo code or the DraftKings promo.

Common Mistakes When Reading Betting Odds

• Confusing the spread with the price: In -3.5 (-110), the -3.5 is points and the -110 is the odds.
• Assuming minus always means favorite: On run lines, puck lines and alternate spreads, a favorite can carry plus odds.
• Mixing up profit and total return: +200 on $10 is $20 profit and $30 back. Payout screens may show either number.
• Chasing big plus numbers: A +1000 parlay looks great, but its implied probability is just 9.1 percent before the vig.
• Ignoring the vig: Laying -120 instead of -110 on every bet adds up fast. Shopping prices is the easiest edge available.
• Treating odds as predictions: Odds reflect the market and the book’s margin, not a guarantee. Upsets happen every week.

Responsible Gambling

Understanding odds helps you know what you are risking, but betting should always stay within a budget you can afford to lose. If gambling stops being fun, free and confidential help is available:

How to Read Betting Odds FAQs

What do the + and – mean in betting?

A minus sign marks the favorite and shows how much you need to bet to win $100. A plus sign marks the underdog and shows how much you win on a $100 bet. On point spreads, the sign refers to points instead of payout.

Is it better to bet on plus or minus odds?

Neither is better by default. Minus odds win more often but pay less, while plus odds pay more but win less often. The better bet is the one where your estimate of the outcome is higher than the implied probability of the price.

What does -110 mean in betting?

It means you bet $110 to win $100, or $11 to win $10. It is the standard price on spreads and totals, and the extra $10 is the sportsbook’s vig.

What does +100 mean in betting?

+100 is even money. A $100 bet wins $100 in profit, for a $200 total return, and the implied probability is 50 percent.

What does -200 mean in betting?

You must bet $200 to win $100, or $10 to win $5. The implied probability is 66.7 percent, which makes it a solid favorite.

What does +300 mean in betting?

A $100 bet wins $300 in profit, for a $400 total return. A $10 bet wins $30. The implied probability is 25 percent.

How do you calculate implied probability from odds?

For minus odds, divide the odds by the odds plus 100. For plus odds, divide 100 by the odds plus 100. For example, -150 is 60 percent and +200 is 33.3 percent.

Does a minus sign always mean the favorite?

On the moneyline, yes. On spreads, run lines and puck lines, the minus can refer to points, and a favorite giving 1.5 runs or goals can carry plus odds.

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