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Nato membership boosts Finnish civil and military tech startups

Finland’s fast-expanding defence sector is witnessing a surge in tech startups chasing new business opportunities on the back of the country’s accession to the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (Nato) in April 2023.  

The so-called Nato dividend is causing the country’s defence sector to experience accelerated growth as more companies capitalise on membership to innovate, grow sales and pursue new avenues of opportunity.  

Buttressed by Nato membership, Finnish tech startups that offer civil and military services are generating comparatively higher growth rates and stronger investor appeal than more traditional defence companies, said Keith Bonnici, investment director at Suomen Teollisuussijoitus (Tesi), a state-owned agency that takes equity-linked financial positions in tech startups and growth companies.  

“The rise in demand for growth capital among startups is tied to the boom in sales in this sector, as well as the sharp increase in export licences,” he said. “As a result, production needs to keep pace with higher demand. Finland remains competitive in the defence industry domain. Our indigenous players have some of the world’s largest defence contractors as customers, as well as Nato members’ defence forces.”  

A Tesi survey released in September 2024 described 144 of the 368 companies currently operating in Finland’s defence sector as “rapidly growing startups and growth companies”.

“We estimate that the annual revenue growth rate of technology companies that offer civilian and military products is as high as 30% to 40%,” said Bonnici. “This clearly exceeds growth rates being achieved by traditional defence companies. The level of growth we are seeing explains why private equity and venture capital investors favour these dual-use companies. Over one-third of the dual-use firms surveyed are owned by private equity and venture capital investors.” 

The Tesi survey found that venture capital financing was the largest individual source of capital investment for companies offering dual-use defence products during the first three quarters of 2024. Moreover, the survey identified the Finnish state as a significant player in the sector, with state-affiliated companies having invested in over 40 defence industry firms since 2014.

Record sales forecast

Buoyed by the “Nato dividend” and bolstered confidence among dual-product tech startups, Finland’s defence sector is on course to deliver a record surge in export sales by 2030, said Bonnici.    

“Finland’s total defence related exports amounted to €2.6b in 2023,” he added. “Based on the latest data and trends, there is every confidence to believe that total annual exports may well reach the €10bn milestone by 2030.”

Helsinki-based Varjo Technologies has expanded development of dual products to reflect a heightened demand for its virtual reality (VR) pilot flight training wares.

Finland’s new status in Nato has substantially improved its ability to achieve stronger international growth, said chief executive Timo Toikkanen. “Nato membership has created new opportunities to grow sales of our VR flight training products,” he said. “It makes it easier to build a presence in the civilian and defence aerospace sectors.”

The Nato factor came into play for Varjo in August 2024, when the US Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) approved the use of its VR headsets to support helicopter pilot training. VR technology is being more broadly tested by Nato-aligned air forces that view it as a cost-efficient option to supplement or replace traditional pilot training in aircraft and large simulator room environments.  

In advance of certification by the FAA, Varjo’s VR-headset hardware had been previously authorised for dual defence and civilian use by the European Aviation Safety Authority, in connection with Swiss group Loft Dynamics’ helicopter pilot flight simulation training device.

Historically, dual-product startups faced serial hurdles trying to generate significant levels of investor interest from defence-shy private equity funds and venture capital firms, said Toikkanen. “Being a dual-product tech company and supplier to the defence industry is nowadays seen not only as acceptable, but even a good thing from the perspective of investors,” he added.

VR investments

Toikkanen attributed the €34m operating loss reported by Varjo in 2023 to the company’s need to make large upfront investments to develop its fourth-generation VR headset. Varjo is hoping to raise next-stage funding of €8m in 2024–2025.   

The dual-product business opportunities flowing from Nato membership are also boosting sales confidence at Saab, the Nordic region’s largest defence technology group. 

Saab reorganised a number of core units under new leadership after Sweden’s membership of Nato was ratified in March 2024. Sweden’s accession to Nato has enhanced the company’s belief in sustainable growth through technology-led projects and capital investments, said Micael Johansson, Saab’s CEO. “We are moving towards establishing a production presence in Ukraine in collaboration with defence and technology companies there. It may be a year or more before this plan takes shape,” he said.  

Saab is hoping to find technology partners in Ukraine to develop and produce a wide range of defence and security wares, including next-generation sensors to leverage Ukraine’s existing drone capabilities. 

Ukraine is exploring the possibility of partnering Saab to produce a range of high-grade military equipment, including Command, Control, Communications, Computers and Intelligence (C4I) and AI/GPS battle management systems in addition to advanced data fusion technologies.

Saab’s new generation of AI and machine learning (ML) product offerings have attracted interest across the Nato member countries. In September last year, it secured a contract to deliver Near Real Time (NRT) AI/ML models to US cyber security and cloud group ECS Federal.

ECS is deploying Saab’s NRT AI/ML technology as part of its input to the US Department of Defense’s (DoD) Maven Program, which is designed to process imagery and full-motion video from drones and automatically detect potential targets.

Joint defence

The growth path to Nato contracts for dual-product firms in Finland and Sweden was greatly enhanced in September 2024, when Nordic governments launched a Regional Joint Defence Concept.  

The agreement, which is managed by the Nordic Defence Cooperation (Nordefco), will synchronise key areas of military cooperation including capacity building, linked military operations, defence technology development and joint products procurement schemes, on a regional level.

Established in 2009, Nordefco serves as a coordinating agency for cross-border defence cooperation between the five Nordic states.

Regionally, the future growth potential of dual-product and defence tech startups across the Nordics is further boosted by Finland and Sweden’s Limited Partner status in the Nato Innovation Fund (NIF). The NIF is financed by 24 of Nato’s 32 member states.  

Capitalised at €1bn, the NIF primarily invests in deep tech defence and security companies across alliance states, while taking a special investment interest in firms developing AI, ML and space technologies.  

“The Nato Innovation Fund is a hugely influential tool to drive technological innovation and development throughout Sweden’s defence and security industries,” said Pål Jonson, Sweden’s defence minister. “For Sweden, it’s an additional benefit of being part of Nato.”

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Show this AI a single image, and it can imagine an entire world

Imagine transforming a single still image into an entire virtual world. This futuristic capability isn’t just a dream; it’s the reality of GenEx (Generative World Explorer). Designed to eliminate the need for physical exploration, GenEx saves time and cost and reduces risk.

The potential of such a system spans from disaster response to immersive gaming, offering a new lens through which we can view and interact with the world, the researchers behind the new system explain in a pre-published paper. GenEx stands out for its human-like reasoning.

Much like how we infer the presence of a hidden object based on context, GenEx uses cues and prior knowledge to imagine unseen areas of an environment. This probabilistic prediction allows for logical decision-making even without direct observation, mimicking the cognitive leaps we make daily.

For instance, just as a driver deduces why a car suddenly stops, GenEx predicts unseen scenarios to guide decisions. The applications here are far-reaching. In disaster response, it can remotely explore hazardous zones using a single surveillance image, enabling safer and quicker rescue operations.

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For navigation, GenEx enhances the training of autonomous robots and navigation apps by providing a detailed understanding of their environment. Gaming and virtual reality also stand to benefit from this technology, creating more immersive and lifelike experiences for users.

At the heart of GenEx are several key features. It generates synthetic, navigable environments from static images and employs “spherical consistency learning” to ensure seamless 360-degree panoramic views. With its “imagination-augmented policy,” GenEx empowers AI agents to make logical, adaptive decisions and flexibly navigate virtual spaces based on directional input and distance parameters.

Tests have shown that GenEx’s capabilities aren’t just theoretical. GenEx has outperformed traditional benchmarks in video generation and improved human decision-making in augmented scenarios. Looking ahead, integrating real-world sensor data and dynamic scenes could make virtual worlds even more realistic.

We’ve seen AI do some crazy things—like making accurate images based on street noise—but we’ve yet to see something as promising as GenEx and its virtual environment generation.

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Interview: Wendy Redshaw, chief digital information officer, NatWest Retail Bank

Wendy Redshaw, chief digital information officer (CDIO) at NatWest Retail Bank, has had a distinguished career leading technology-led change in some of the world’s biggest financial services organisations. Now, she’s using that experience to drive even more innovation.

After four years as CIO for collaborative technology solutions with Deutsche Bank, Redshaw says she was eager to work for a UK finance house. In late 2018, she found the perfect home at NatWest as head of technology and digital distribution for the personal bank.

“The opportunity was interesting because NatWest was ready for digital transformation but wasn’t naturally sitting in a leadership position at that time,” she says. “The role allowed me to land and think about what to do. I found an organisation that was fundamentally focused on its customers and perhaps had less digital experience in-house.”

After working with her team to deliver technological improvements across the personal bank offline and online, Redshaw moved into the CDIO position in February 2020. “It wasn’t just because I wanted a longer acronym than most technologists,” she jokes.

“We created the role so we could sew together business and technology because, as with many organisations, technology had historically been something that happened over there, and the business did their thing, and then they would give the technologists something to work on. We wanted better integration.”

Embracing digital change

Redshaw says the creation of her CDIO role in 2020 was a public statement that NatWest wanted to create a partnership approach to technology and business: “This is a digital bank in the making, and hopefully, with the results that we’ve seen, we’ve achieved our aims.”

The technological transformation in banking services that Redshaw oversees at NatWest today differs greatly from the finance industry she joined as a software engineer in 1987.

“We didn’t call it digital then,” she says. “I remember the focus was on, ‘How do we use technology to make things quicker, simpler and more secure for our customers?’” She points to work on a security module for the London Stock Exchange and the beginning of the settlement systems CHAPS and Euroclear.

“There was a lot of change where technology was being brought in, but it was more for the underpinning services than for the consumer-facing areas,” she says, before fast-forwarding to the present-day bank. “Over that time, we’ve seen that digital is now in the hands of our retail customers.”

Redshaw says the shift in technological focus also helped prompt her switch to the retail side of banking. After a career driving behind-the-scenes IT changes in major firms, such as Lloyds TSB, Barclays Capital and Royal Bank of Scotland, her current role at NatWest is focused on delivering innovative customer services.

“That’s where the exciting stuff is happening. Yes, of course, we use AI across several areas of the organisation – something like 17% of our models are AI-based now, such as for controlling fraud, financial crime and so on,” she says.

“However, in terms of affecting human beings, digital services are at our customers’ fingertips. If you think about my driver for going into the CDIO role, the customer is where I thought I’d have the most impact.”

Delivering pioneering innovations

As CDIO, Readshaw is directly accountable to the group CIO and retail banking CEO. Responsible for digital operations leadership, she manages 4,500 people across four locations globally and leads the delivery of retail banking technology for Royal Bank of Scotland, NatWest and Ulster Bank North.

Redshaw’s team is digitalising services to make life easier for the group’s customers. Their work is supported by a planned investment of £3.5bn from 2023 to 2025, with more than 70% of spending targeted at data and technology.

NatWest has 10.9 million digitally active retail and business banking customers and 3.5 million use online banking platforms. The hard work continues apace. In 2024, Redshaw led the launch of a retail banking app on Apple’s Vision Pro virtual reality headset.

One of her proudest achievements is the introduction of generative AI (GenAI) into the bank’s conversational assistant, Cora. She says the bank made an early move into chatbots. Cora was introduced in 2017. The technology could answer basic questions, but Redshaw wanted it to do more.

“When I joined in 2018, I realised it was quite a good channel to do something with,” she says. “I had some grand ambitions for her – things like digital avatars having a voice, and all these engaging ways of doing things. I said, ‘Look, I see this particular technology being something we could get moving on’.”

Redshaw saw that, while machine learning technology was progressing at pace, it wasn’t quite ready for the giant leap in digital experiences she envisioned. However, the public release of generative AI models in late 2022 helped turn theory into a practical reality. Working with experts from IBM’s client engineering team to develop the initial proof of concept, NatWest launched its next-generation assistant, Cora+, in June 2024.

Cora+ is a multichannel platform that securely accesses data from multiple sources, including products, services and banking information. The virtual assistant technology is powered by IBM’s Watsonx Assistantand built on IBM Cloud. Estimates suggest the technology is creating a 150% improvement in satisfaction for some customer queries.

“It was the perfect example of an interest in technology, an interest in people, and an interest in delivering business value,” she says. “I feel very excited about how we’ve taken something that just answered questions and moved into generative AI at scale for millions of customers. And it’s only the first step. I’ve got big ambitions for what I want to do with that technology.”

Building strong partnerships

Cora+ uses ChatGPT 3.5 alongside an unnamed GPT large language model (LLM). The second model is trained to judge the output of the first model. While the GPT models play an important role in NatWest’s digital strategy, the organisation is eager to keep an open approach to AI and innovation.

Redshaw says the group wants to avoid being locked into a specific LLM. She wants the capability to swap from large to small language models (SLMs). Organisations can use SLMs to derive outputs from constrained amounts of data that require less computing power, which is important for a big business like NatWest that wants to meet sustainability targets.

“As a result, it was a case of, ‘OK IBM, we like working with you, but we want to be able to switch the language models in and out depending on the business requirement’,” she says. “And they were like, ‘Absolutely’. So, that’s great. We have the same mindset around using the best of everything to get value for our customers safely.”

Wendy Redshaw, Natwest

“This is a digital bank in the making, and hopefully, with the results that we’ve seen, we’ve achieved our aims”

Wendy Redshaw, NatWest Retail Bank

In addition to the work on Cora+, Redshaw and her colleagues are analysing how AI can boost customer experiences in other areas. NatWest has worked with IBM to develop a digital legal assistant powered by GenAI. This tool streamlines contract management and enhances accessibility, especially for neurodivergent users. The tool supports colleagues with compliance checks, producing 20% efficiency gains.

More generally, Redshaw is proud her team completes thousands of releases annually. The department’s focus on micro-projects is as important as delivering large-scale initiatives and helps NatWest hit tight transformation deadlines. Across all projects, IBM acts as a key technology partner, with Redshaw suggesting the nature of the long-term working relationship with the tech giant is like interacting with people on the internal team.

John Duigenan, distinguished engineer and general manager of the global financial services industry at IBM, says shifting to constant innovation, experimentation, and learning is typical of the work his company sees in its most pioneering clients. “We got to work with a trusted partner, and we got to learn together,” he said, referring to IBM’s relationship with NatWest.

“It’s great we co-create approaches to using technology and collaborate on innovation. Our teams blend incredibly well, and we deliver together in new ways. We have an approach that says, ‘We know why this work will matter for all of us because we can measure the impact’.”

Providing new experiences

Redshaw reflects on achievements during the past few years. While the benefits of the digital transformation she’s enacted at NatWest are clear, there’s always an opportunity to do more.

She says the rapid pace of transformation makes it difficult to predict with any degree of certainty what will happen next: “What will the success metrics be in three years? We won’t be judged on the same metrics because digital banking is changing quickly.”

However, she expects to see developments in some key areas. “In the AI space, I expect to see more voice,” she says. “At the moment, Cora listens to our telephony and sends a text, a deep link, or something else that’s required. In the future, I think it’ll probably answer the phone and deal with questions.”

Redshaw also expects progress in text-based answering. Her bank’s research suggests people in financial difficulties often prefer having a guilt-free conversation with a bot rather than a human. “I would expect something in that financial health and support space that uses natural language,” she says.

There’s even the potential for advances in unexpected areas. Redshaw says she’s keen to add Cora to ATMs, something that she was previously told was impossible.

“I’ve now spoken to some innovation engineers, and they’ve said they think it might be possible,” she says. “So, I suspect we will see something like a digital point of presence.”

Finally, Redshaw expects the bank to continue honing its approach to mobile. “People now have their bank in their pocket,” she says. “I imagine we will give more richness and engagement through these devices. Even though our mobile strategy is great, I think it will lean towards more engagement and personalisation during the next 24 months.”

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Data bill aims to boost police and NHS productivity

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5 November 2024

Data bill aims to boost police and NHS productivity

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In this week’s Computer Weekly, the government’s new data bill promises to improve productivity and efficiency for the NHS and police, but will it ensure privacy as well? We talk to Dell’s global CTO about how the IT giant sees the AI boom playing out. And we examine which industries stand to benefit most from the collaboration opportunities of virtual reality. Read the issue now.

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